Wave near the Lesser Antilles

jinftl · #21 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 3:25 pm

Shear forecast for next 72 hours...

Aric Dunn · #22 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 3:26 pm

jinftl wrote:Shear forecast for next 72 hours...

well given the resolution in that is not great.. 12 hours from now the eastern caribb is under less then 10kts and the whole carrib is less than 10kts b 36 hours

Aric Dunn · #23 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 3:28 pm

here is a 12 forecast from Nogaps
show a upper ridge in place and shear less than 10 kts

and 24hrs the wave is sitting in a excellent upper environment ..

Aric Dunn · #24 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 3:32 pm

then the only thing we need is convection and a closed circ..

Aric Dunn · #25 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 3:38 pm

And as for steering..

looks like straight west to maybe wnw later in the central and western carrib and thats through the mid levels and upper level steering

latest NHC 48 hour forecast..

#26 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 3:46 pm

Now up as Invest on Floater One (NHC Satellite Page) but nothing on Navy site yet...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Aric Dunn · #27 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 3:50 pm

well the 12z euro is out..

it still wants to split the wave and bring it up the east coast as a decent system

im not buying it .. especially since the system is already coming up on PR and does not have any northerly comopent yet so for it make it north of Hispaniola in 36 hours is going to be tough. but the energy extends far to the north and may split leaving southern half to western carrib and northern half in the bahamas is 3 days

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

KWT · #28 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 4:01 pm

I'm not so sure though, its not at all easy to tell what the wave axis is doing right now given its leaving the convection all behind.

I suspect as you say the wave will split and you'll get two regions of energy. Models do suggests conditions will improve in the Caribbean but the upper regions are usually very poorly forecasted so we have to wait and see, plus the Nogaps isn't that good of a model either, though you'd hope at just 12-24hrs out it would be right.

Aric Dunn · #29 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 4:42 pm

KWT wrote:I'm not so sure though, its not at all easy to tell what the wave axis is doing right now given its leaving the convection all behind.

I suspect as you say the wave will split and you'll get two regions of energy. Models do suggests conditions will improve in the Caribbean but the upper regions are usually very poorly forecasted so we have to wait and see, plus the Nogaps isn't that good of a model either, though you'd hope at just 12-24hrs out it would be right.

its not only the nogaps, its gfs as well.

also the nhc said it the latest discussion's

not only that its occurring already as you can see from the shear map its dropping very fast and the wave is already moving into the lighter shear environment

Aric Dunn · #30 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 4:56 pm

old 97L is still not out of the picture..

#31 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 6:32 pm

963
ABNT20 KNHC 182329
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. WHILE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
950 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

#32 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:39 pm

Convection is building and dry air is diminishing around ex-97L.

Aric Dunn · #33 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:41 pm

Blown_away wrote:Convection is building and dry air is diminishing around ex-97L.

yeah been watching it... has it closer to the greater divergence aloft convection will increase probably quite a bit .. its not done yet..

Aric Dunn · #34 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:44 pm

Good eye by the way glad people are still watching it

also something interesting about .. there is convection firing on that far northern curved band.. which has not happened as of yet do to all the dry air that far north but its clearly almost gone

#35 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 8:00 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Good eye by the way glad people are still watching it

also something interesting about .. there is convection firing on that far northern curved band.. which has not happened as of yet do to all the dry air that far north but its clearly almost gone

I think it's the best it has looked since yesterday. Got to think that mid/low level swirl is still there, it was at the last visible shot. Popcorn convection is really firing up. Not sure what will happen when it begins to interact w/ the NE Caribbean wave convection.

Recurve · #36 Postby **Recurve** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 8:11 pm

What's the ID on the current waves?
TPC has areas 1 & 2 -- I gather area 2 was 97L, but someone said "ex-97", has it been removed?

If shear is going to be low ahead in the caribbean, what other factors are you guys looking at for enhancing/limiting convection on #1?

#37 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 8:17 pm

Recurve wrote:What's the ID on the current waves?
TPC has areas 1 & 2 -- I gather area 2 was 97L, but someone said "ex-97", has it been removed?

If shear is going to be low ahead in the caribbean, what other factors are you guys looking at for enhancing/limiting convection on #1?

97L was deactivated as an invest but still is shaded yellow as a possible area of development on the TPC.

Aric Dunn · #38 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 8:20 pm

Recurve wrote:What's the ID on the current waves?
TPC has areas 1 & 2 -- I gather area 2 was 97L, but someone said "ex-97", has it been removed?

If shear is going to be low ahead in the caribbean, what other factors are you guys looking at for enhancing/limiting convection on #1?

shear is forecast to be low but there will still be upper divergence ... also moisture in all levels is steadily increases along its path. per the lasted discussion as well my own analysis there is still a clear circualtion evident still partially attached the ITCZ on the SW side. Low level convergence should be increases soon, as it approaches the the islands.. the sign we are looking for is at least some decent convection near that circ. and this evening it is apparent the environment is far better than last night so will see, cant say for sure but as long as the wave/ low is still present chances stay the same and if the trend over the last couple hours with the convection beginning to fire then 97L may come back to life.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html would have to say this present burst thats starting is more expansive than anything last night ..

this one reminds me Chris quite a bit in 96 ..

#39 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 8:24 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Recurve wrote:What's the ID on the current waves?
TPC has areas 1 & 2 -- I gather area 2 was 97L, but someone said "ex-97", has it been removed?

If shear is going to be low ahead in the caribbean, what other factors are you guys looking at for enhancing/limiting convection on #1?

shear is forecast to be low but there will still be upper divergence ... also moisture in all levels is steadily increases along its path. per the lasted discussion as well my own analysis there is still a clear circualtion evident still partially attached the ITCZ on the SW side. Low level convergence should be increases soon, as it approaches the the islands.. the sign we are looking for is at least some decent convection near that circ. and this evening it is apparent the environment is far better than last night so will see, cant say for sure but as long as the wave/ low is still present chances stay the same and if the trend over the last couple hours with the convection beginning to fire then 97L may come back to life.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html would have to say this present burst thats starting is more expansive than anything last night ..

this one reminds me Chris quite a bit in 96 ..

Chris was the ultimate tease.

Aric Dunn · #40 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 8:24 pm

Blown_away wrote:
Recurve wrote:What's the ID on the current waves?
TPC has areas 1 & 2 -- I gather area 2 was 97L, but someone said "ex-97", has it been removed?

If shear is going to be low ahead in the caribbean, what other factors are you guys looking at for enhancing/limiting convection on #1?

97L was deactivated as an invest but still is shaded yellow as a possible area of development on the TPC.

well its still up on NRL and they are still updated the microwave images and satellite.. but it was officially deactivated. but i imagine again if the trend continues and the moisture ahead of the system along with the divergence aloft breaths life once again tonight that it will be back tomorrow.. lol

yeah chris was also annoying .. lol

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