Do NOT focus on if the system is a major hurricane

[kat61]

Thanks Derek! Agnes '72. Wilkes-Barre,PA. tropical storm.......flooded the city, the coal mines......changed forever for NEPA.

[JonathanBelles]

Thanks Derek!!! Although I dont agree that the Major Hurricane Status should be thrown out, the point is well taken. TS's can be stronger in some aspects than a Category 5.

[psyclone]

naturally this is an outstanding post but you're preaching to the choir here. i think most of us get it. it's too bad there's no way to disseminate this post to the public at large and , most importantly, the media. one of the most annoying things i hear people say is "it's only a cat 1" as if that is child's play. You can get sustained winds of 90 and gusts well above 100mph from a "paltry" cat 1. that is some violent, destructive and extremely dangerous weather. finally I think it's worth noting that the fools who say "it's only a cat 1" have never actually experienced true cat 1 conditions. if they ever do they'll never downplay it again.

[Derek Ortt]

naturally this is an outstanding post but you're preaching to the choir here. i think most of us get it. it's too bad there's no way to disseminate this post to the public at large and , most importantly, the media. one of the most annoying things i hear people say is "it's only a cat 1" as if that is child's play. You can get sustained winds of 90 and gusts well above 100mph from a "paltry" cat 1. that is some violent, destructive and extremely dangerous weather. finally I think it's worth noting that the fools who say "it's only a cat 1" have never actually experienced true cat 1 conditions. if they ever do they'll never downplay it again.

I may post this at PNJ.com tomorrow morning

[MWatkins]

I completely agree and think this is a great post.

I can tell you first hand that approximately half of the Galveston Island residents did not evacuate before Ike for this reason. We ran into residents everywhere who said they weren't going anywhere if it was going to be a Category two. There were scores of people coming into the San Luis during the eye of Ike who were wishing they would have listened, and many many more who could not get there because of the flooding.

And remember how many people were killed in South Florida (I think 7) when cat 1 Katrina shifted south during rush hour with a bunch of people driving around. I think there were almost as many direct storm deaths from Cat 1 Katrina as there were from Cat 5 Andrew, which was taken very seriously by SFL residents.

MW

[thetruesms]

Great post, indeed. I think I may repost (credit given, of course) on another forum where the general consensus seems to be:
<= cat 3 - get drunk, party
> cat 3 - flee

[Ixolib]

...It all depends if you get the maximum winds and especially if you are unlucky and get caught in one of the mini-swirls in the eyewall....

Not to discount the impact of wind, but let's not forget the impact of storm surge. Surge is equally - if not more so - as significant as wind in terms of a storm's potential for destruction. If choosing between wind and storm surge, I'll opt for the wind any day -- been there, done that.

Humans, animals, and permanent structures can generally (of course there are exceptions) survive the wind - especially in a well built and solid structure. Surge, on the other hand, destroys any structure it gets into and fills the lungs of any human unfortunate enough to be overcome by its uncanny strength. Well built or poorly built, concrete or wood, brick or steel, surge doesn't discriminate.

As Ortt said, the effects of any tropical system can be dangerous - including the system's potential to present abnormally high water that is neither expected nor planned for...

[cpdaman]

i guess i will be the jerk here jkidding

should a cat 1 or 2 show up i will at least be safe inside my house and i understand the point is to take all hurricane's seriously and i agree however one should also understand the exponentially higher damage a 150 mph winds gust exerts compared to 100mph....it's not just 50% stronger in force.

should a cat 3 or ESPECIALLY a cat 4 or 5 be bearing down.......... i'm gettin the heck out of town ...not staying ....no shot.

[Derek Ortt]

to the above poster,

have you been through real cat 2 winds? I do not mean a cat 2 hurricane, but actual true cat 2 winds?

The wind gusts within true cat 2 winds are equivalent to an EF3 tornado (they gust to about 130+). Can your home survive an EF3 tornado? (or multiple of them in rapid fire?)

[attallaman]

Good post.

[mpic]

Good post, Derek. I will admit that I have very bitter feelings toward the way the local mets in Houston handled Ike. I left in time because of what I read here and NOT what I heard on TV. My boss thought I was nuts for leaving because "they said it won't come here." Enough said.

[thetruesms]

to the above poster,

have you been through real cat 2 winds? I do not mean a cat 2 hurricane, but actual true cat 2 winds?

The wind gusts within true cat 2 winds are equivalent to an EF3 tornado (they gust to about 130+). Can your home survive an EF3 tornado? (or multiple of them in rapid fire?)

That is huge. It seems that frequently, people assign whatever the peak speed of at storm's winds are to what they experienced, regardless of their location relative to the center of the storm. Suddenly, someone in the TS swath who experienced no more than 45 mph winds thinks they just made it through cat 2 winds.

I know it's very important that the fact that a hurricane is more than just a point, and that should by no means end, but I'm afraid it has the unintended consequence of people downplaying a future storm's threat because they overestimate the intensity of winds they've faced in the past.

[CrazyC83]

Some tropical storms - and even tropical depressions - have been more destructive than many major hurricanes. Last year, TD16 caused significantly more deaths and damage than Cat 4 Omar.

Also, Ike had Category 1 gusts in the Midwest - and they did almost $5 billion in damage.

[Ixolib]

to the above poster,

have you been through real cat 2 winds? I do not mean a cat 2 hurricane, but actual true cat 2 winds?

The wind gusts within true cat 2 winds are equivalent to an EF3 tornado (they gust to about 130+). Can your home survive an EF3 tornado? (or multiple of them in rapid fire?)

Mr Ortt - Your mission has always been to warn and remind people about the dangerous effects of a storm - regardless of its intensity - and I applaud and appreciate your tireless efforts in that regard. No doubt, your expertise and education carries the credibility that causes people to listen. My mission is quite similar to yours, only my focus is to additionally warn and remind people about the surge potential.

In answer to your question though, I suppose that depends on one's opinion of what conditions existed at the time. I've personally experienced Betsy, Camille, Fredrick, Elena, Georges, Katrina, and countless lesser systems in Biloxi over the last 45 years.

Certainly, the argument over "who got what winds" has taken place ad nauseam and will likely continue unabated in the future. I'm not a scientist and I don't have a myriad of weather instruments installed in my home to measure straight-line or microburst winds. But I do know that in my lifetime, storm surge has significantly, overtly, completely, and overwhelmingly caused more destruction and death than storm winds. This is especially evident when one compares the combined results of all storms over a given period. Water (storm surge and/or fresh-water flooding) is always a more significant destroyer and killer than wind. Therefore, I simply believe that the potential effects of surge ought to always be communicated with equal - if not more so – emphasis than the winds.

Water was the primary destructive force in Galveston, Okeechobee, 1935, Betsy, Camille, Mitch, Hugo, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, and Ike. But what about the effects of wind? Certainly Andrew and Charley come to mind, but let's remember that both of those storms impacted either high concentrations of mobile homes or homes that were poorly built in the first place. And then there's Wilma which was primarily (and thankfully) only a wind event once it made landfall.

The degree of preparation necessary for the effects of WIND vs. the degree necessary for SURGE is like comparing apples and oranges. But both must be at least equally considered when preparing or planning for a storm.

What would be the result of a well-built and solid structure being hit by 130mph winds vs. being hit by 8+ feet of wave-topped storm surge? The answer is easy. There is a virtual guarantee that the structure will be destroyed in the surge. However, the guarantee of destruction by the wind – sustained, micro, or otherwise – is considerably less certain.

Again, I'm not intending to discount the dangerous effects of the winds. I'm simply stating that one must equally consider the potential impact of storm surge or he/she is only half informed and, consequently, only half prepared.

[Stephanie]

EXCELLENT post, Derek.

[Swimdude]

Excellent point. I went through Ike in Houston, and although we probably didn't have any more than 75 mph sustained winds, trees were down everywhere... Power was knocked out for a week (and much more for some). And much, much worse depending on your location in Houston.

[DanKellFla]

Frances: Cat 1 Winds at my House (according to NOAA)- 5 days without electricity, a 7 foot tall and 50 foot long pile of vegatation debris in front of my house, a few thousand dollars of damage to the home. That storm stalled over me for hours and hours. As a house guest from New York who "knew everything" said, "I didn't think that just a Cat 1 would be so bad. "

Jean: Not as bad. I didn't have anything left to blow down. I had power back in 12 hours. For some reason, that storm was scary that Frances.

Wilma: The second half scared me. And it was a Cat 2 over my house.


The are all scary.

[David in FL]

I know this is a hurricane thread, but having just lived through a F4 tornado woth winds of atleast 206 or 207 mph I know wind can do a LOT of damage. Before I get to that I do not understand why anyone would willingly put themsevles in danger of a hurricane impact. Its not just winds, its the flooding. Anyways here are a few pictures of 200+mph wind damage.
Sorry I can't really figure out the pics
[img][/img]

[img=http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/5455/tornado6.th.jpg]


[img=http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/599/tornado3c.th.jpg]
[img=http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/6228/tornado10.th.jpg]


This pic is from a friends radio controlled plane with camera
[img=http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/8141/tornado15.th.jpg]

[swampdude]

I have been a "hurricane nut" for most of my life. I experienced Audrey ( I was 2 and don't remember)!. Carla was my first memory of a hurricane, but we took a glancing blow and I just remember the gusty winds and rain, rain, and more rain. A few tropical storms, but no hurricane again until Rita made a direct hit on our town. We evacuated 80 miles inland and it wasn't far enough. A very scary night. Then Humberto made a surprise visit with the eye (tiny eye) coming right over us. I thought I knew what 75 MPH winds were like but Humberto taught me that I didn't want to experience that again! Then Ike brought the Gulf of Mexico right through our town, then whipped us with very high winds 250 miles inland! Needless to say we will hit the road anytime one of those monsters gets near. I too always wanted to experience a hurricane. Not anymore. I have in the last 4 years experienced 3 hurricanes. Two Cat 2's and one Cat 1. As Derek says, any category of hurricane is life-threatening and add the storm surge and damage is phenomenal. Here's to praying for a bountiful "fish" harvest this year!

[Cookie]

I dont see the point of takeing any risks with these hurricanes. better safe then sorry weather it be a TD or hurricane.