Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend??? AGAIN???

[lrak]

My super duper satellite viewing eyes sees some sort of LLC at about 20n 93.5w any takers?

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

First time in 24hrs for a NE wind....hmmm, pressure is way high

[Flyinman]

That area has seemed to get just a little more organized since this morning. I guess it will be interesting to see if the area will stay off shore or move inland.

[TexWx]

Looks like it's moving inland now.

[Stormcenter]

I agree 100% with your post especially about the "long trackers" and "not ltting our guard down". If anything tropical is going to affect the GOM coastline it will homebrew (old stalled fronts) stuff. I just don't see anything sneeking into the GOM with this persistant pattern. As matter of fact we have another front headed down south for next week with more unseasonably cool air.

After Rita, Humberto, Edouard, Gustav, and Ike, we need a break. Doesn't appear any long trackers (CV storms) would make it this far west before re-curve (if the current pattern persists). Thus, we probably have to look closer to home for any possible development. Current conditions are not favorable for any development of this type. However, stay focused and don't let your guard down ... still 5-6 weeks to go.

[StormClouds63]

The analog years for 2009 are 1957, 1963, 1965, 1996, and 2002? I may not have all these correct. Anyway, the pattern with these fronts starting to push through on the Gulf Coast is also similar to 2004. We had several record lows that year (2004) during August ... not as potent this year (unfortunately). Another summer going way back was 1974 ... when the fronts starting pushing through early. Of course, 2004 and 1974 also featured Ivan and Carmen respectively, so there's no complete guarantee even with these early troughs.

[southerngale]

I agree 100% with your post especially about the "long trackers" and "not ltting our guard down". If anything tropical is going to affect the GOM coastline it will homebrew (old stalled fronts) stuff. I just don't see anything sneeking into the GOM with this persistant pattern. As matter of fact we have another front headed down south for next week with more unseasonably cool air.

More unseasonably cool air? The only cool air I've felt recently has come from the A/C. This summer has been as hot as you know where.

[Stormcenter]

Well I've been in New Orleans for last 3 months (work) and it's been cool (for this time of year) for the last several days. As a matter of fact the heat hasn't been that bad here since June. The pattern I was referring to is the persistant East coast trough. You tend to have more unusually strong fronts dive south with this pattern.

I agree 100% with your post especially about the "long trackers" and "not ltting our guard down". If anything tropical is going to affect the GOM coastline it will homebrew (old stalled fronts) stuff. I just don't see anything sneaking into the GOM with this persistant pattern. As matter of fact we have another front headed down south for next week with more unseasonably cool air.

More unseasonably cool air? The only cool air I've felt recently has come from the A/C. This summer has been as hot as you know where.

[Tireman4]

Unseasonably cool? Like how cool? Upper 60's...for lows...upper 80's for highs?

[southerngale]

Your profile still says Houston, so I could only assume you were in Houston, where I know the trees have been whistling for the dogs and fully baked potatoes have come out of the ground. We've set a gazillion record highs in Texas this summer. And it's been very dry. A few days of rain (without the hurricane force winds or storm surge) would be most welcoming!

[Portastorm]

Your profile still says Houston, so I could only assume you were in Houston, where I know the trees have been whistling for the dogs and fully baked potatoes have come out of the ground. We've set a gazillion record highs in Texas this summer. And it's been very dry. A few days of rain (without the hurricane force winds or storm surge) would be most welcoming!

Here, here ... Austin, Texas will second that motion!

[ROCK]

Your profile still says Houston, so I could only assume you were in Houston, where I know the trees have been whistling for the dogs and fully baked potatoes have come out of the ground. We've set a gazillion record highs in Texas this summer. And it's been very dry. A few days of rain (without the hurricane force winds or storm surge) would be most welcoming!

Here, here ... Austin, Texas will second that motion!

that so called front is never going to make into SE Texas are even to the coast given the last NWS discussion. We shall see....BTW I did get 1/2 inch today, then the sun came out and boiled it off....nice...

[Stormcenter]

Sorry for the confusion.....I'll be moving back to Houston next month.

Your profile still says Houston, so I could only assume you were in Houston, where I know the trees have been whistling for the dogs and fully baked potatoes have come out of the ground. We've set a gazillion record highs in Texas this summer. And it's been very dry. A few days of rain (without the hurricane force winds or storm surge) would be most welcoming!

[bayoubebe]

Well I've been in New Orleans for last 3 months (work) and it's been cool (for this time of year) for the last several days. As a matter of fact the heat hasn't been that bad here since June. The pattern I was referring to is the persistant East coast trough. You tend to have more unusually strong fronts dive south with this pattern.

I agree 100% with your post especially about the "long trackers" and "not ltting our guard down". If anything tropical is going to affect the GOM coastline it will homebrew (old stalled fronts) stuff. I just don't see anything sneaking into the GOM with this persistant pattern. As matter of fact we have another front headed down south for next week with more unseasonably cool air.

More unseasonably cool air? The only cool air I've felt recently has come from the A/C. This summer has been as hot as you know where.

It has been WONDERFUL the last few days in South East Louisiana. I wish it would stay like this, a little bit cooler, and low humidity, almost Fall-like.

[yzerfan]

Unseasonably cool? Like how cool? Upper 60's...for lows...upper 80's for highs?

Where I live, that's the definition of unseasonably cool in August.

It's weird. The last time I vividly remember the kind of cold (or maybe call it dryer) snap this time of year, it was in 2004 and that trough was what ended up pushing Charley into SW Florida instead of having it track to the northern Gulf Coast like those kinds of storms frequently do.

[Aric Dunn]

Watch the gulf today and tomorrow.. lots of shear now but it will help fire more convection and there is already a surface trough .. shear may relax in about 24 hours..