1997 vs 2009
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Re: 1997 vs 2009
I don't think we're in the beggining of an inactive phase, if we were then Bill and Fred wouldn't have intensified in the way they did. I mean, with all the bad conditions we have had this season in an inactive period we may have seen only one major or no major hurricanes as it was the case for 1983 or 1994.
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Re: 1997 vs 2009
El nino seasons....even during active periods....are expected to have reduced storm totals. No surprise there. The 1997 season featured 8 named storms.....and that season was an anomaly in terms of the seasons that came before and the seasons that came after in terms of such a low total # of storms.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a well-known hurricane researcher at Colorado State has written:
"Atlantic hurricane seasons are typically quiet when El Nino is present, as it has been this year,” Klotzbach said. “This impacts most on the late season storms the most, and October tends to be very quiet."
"This has to do with vertical wind shear, which changes with wind direction in the upper atmosphere. In the Atlantic, the low-level winds come out of the east, while winds in the upper-level atmosphere come out of the west. Since El Nino is typically much stronger in the upper-level winds, it tends to disrupt hurricane formation."
“The entire Atlantic is in an active period right now,” Klotzbach said. “Landfalls along the East Coast tend to follow these active 25- to 30-year cycles. For example, the quiet periods of Atlantic hurricanes occurred in 1970-1994 and in the first part of 20th century. Other periods experienced many more storms, like 1925-1960s and the late 1800s.”
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a well-known hurricane researcher at Colorado State has written:
"Atlantic hurricane seasons are typically quiet when El Nino is present, as it has been this year,” Klotzbach said. “This impacts most on the late season storms the most, and October tends to be very quiet."
"This has to do with vertical wind shear, which changes with wind direction in the upper atmosphere. In the Atlantic, the low-level winds come out of the east, while winds in the upper-level atmosphere come out of the west. Since El Nino is typically much stronger in the upper-level winds, it tends to disrupt hurricane formation."
“The entire Atlantic is in an active period right now,” Klotzbach said. “Landfalls along the East Coast tend to follow these active 25- to 30-year cycles. For example, the quiet periods of Atlantic hurricanes occurred in 1970-1994 and in the first part of 20th century. Other periods experienced many more storms, like 1925-1960s and the late 1800s.”
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