Surface Trough near Leewards

[Nimbus]

Should be some other posters jumping in on this area later this afternoon. This area "has the look".

[BigA]

This wave that emerged from Africa with good curvature is now another 2009 ghost system east of the Lesser Antilles.

What is a ghost system?

In any event, the WRF and CMC show some limited development.

[floridasun78]

you talking about area east of leedwards?

[Sanibel]

I call something that looks good on satellite but has nothing to it a "ghost system" because you see something and then it disappears.


This does has some curving mid features but I suspect it won't become anything.

[Nimbus]

More specifically the area of convection with a little rotation near 10N -49W

[cycloneye]

BigA,I edited the title as this wave with a yellow circle is the one you had as South of Cape Verde islands.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE EAST IS THE PRIMARY SOURCE
OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NECESSARY FOR THE PRECIPITATION THAT
ALSO IS TO THE EAST OF THIS WAVE.

$$
MT

[HURAKAN]

861
ABNT20 KNHC 021134
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE DIMINISHED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[BigA]

Sprouting a bit (only a bit) of convection tonight, and looks like it might be in an area of lower shear. Still looks to have good 850 mb vorticity. I don't expect development, but its worthy of a yellow, methinks.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[gatorcane]

This wave is now approaching the Leewards and is blowing up some good convection. Shear looks like it will drop off out ahead of this wave so I think it may get mentioned in a TWO as it heads WNW to West through the Northern Leewards, Puerto Rico or just north of.

Can we change the title of this thread to reflect the new location?

[cycloneye]

BigA,I edited the title to reflect the location and name of system per TWD.

[BigA]

BigA,I edited the title to reflect the location and name of system per TWD.

Ok. Thank you.

In any case, the convection is waning now, but now bursts are sprouting. We'll have to see what sort of persistent convection this can generate through the day.

[floridasun78]

this their other topic about area east leedwards?

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]