NOAA hurricane forecast : 14-23 named storms

[Evil Jeremy]

70% chance of 14-23 storms? Why not just a 100% of 1-∞? Really, this is much broader than past NHC forecasts, and broader than it should be. Their is a significant difference between 14 storms and 23 storms. Could they just not make up their minds?

[srainhoutx]

I certainly believe we all expected the numbers to be high, but goodness! I suspect we may very well have many sleepless nights and working weekends ahead.

[clfenwi]

NOAA has done probabilistic forecasting since 2008, that is forecasting a range that falls within a given % probability (as opposed to determinstic, where you outright forecast a specific number or a narrow range (like the Colorado State forecast or 2003-2007 NOAA forecasts).

The larger spread compared to the past two seasons reflects a larger uncertainty.

[HURAKAN]

wow, they tend to be conservative. That's downright scary behond belief.

[tolakram]

This season, in my opinion will be a learning experience. Either 2005 and the conditions during 2005, will allow us to better forecast hyperactive seasons or this year will go down as one of the worst forecast years ever.

[wxman57]

"Looks like I picked a bad week to quit amphetamines..."

[KWT]

Am I the only one who thinks this is just about the most pointless foreast ever, really whats the point of having a 9 storm range!

Thats like saying there will be a range most seasons of between 8-17!

The fact they went so high with the upper end shows jsut how favourable conditions ould be, but I do wish they'd have had something of a smaller range I really do!

[johngaltfla]

For NOAA to come out with this aggressive of a forecast, I must ask the pros: Isn't that a tad bit disturbing?

[bvigal]

NOAA has done probabilistic forecasting since 2008, that is forecasting a range that falls within a given % probability (as opposed to determinstic, where you outright forecast a specific number or a narrow range (like the Colorado State forecast or 2003-2007 NOAA forecasts).

The larger spread compared to the past two seasons reflects a larger uncertainty.

Thanks! That certainly makes sense. But in that case, this is rather scary.

[cycloneye]

This forecast will be mentioned in all the media outlets and that is when people will realize it will be a very busy season to then start to prepare.

[Junia]

Seriously though, how awful have these predictions been the last few years?

[thetruesms]

For NOAA to come out with this aggressive of a forecast, I must ask the pros: Isn't that a tad bit disturbing?

I don't know that I'm particularly disturbed by it, but I do find the upper end of the range surprising

[srainhoutx]

"Looks like I picked a bad week to quit amphetamines..."

Sorry for the off toipc, but this is exactly what came to my mind while reading the Outlook!

[KWT]

For NOAA to come out with this aggressive of a forecast, I must ask the pros: Isn't that a tad bit disturbing?

I don't know that I'm particularly disturbed by it, but I do find the upper end of the range surprising

I think that says it all, the upper end is something they wouldn't normally extend to...

FWIW the middle of that range is 18-19 storms!

[Chacor]

Seriously though, how awful have these predictions been the last few years?

Not all that awful, actually.

2008 May forecast: 80% chance of 12-16/6-9/2-5
2008 actual: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 majors - right on the dot

2009 May forecast: 70% of 9-14/4-7/1-3
2009 actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 majors - not all that shabby

[cycloneye]

Contrary to the Atlantic,the Eastern Pacific will be below normal.

[KWT]

Seriously though, how awful have these predictions been the last few years?

Not all that awful, actually.

2008 May forecast: 80% chance of 12-16/6-9/2-5
2008 actual: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 majors - right on the dot

2009 May forecast: 70% of 9-14/4-7/1-3
2009 actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 majors - not all that shabby

Not that hard though when you know that nearly all neutral seasons in the ative phase of the Atlantic was between 12-16 storms in 2008, and the El Nino average in the active phase also usually is in that 9-14 range...

So thats just pure common sense really!

That range is so large I see no possible way it won't be correct, and if the season ends up outside that range then it'll be no doubt a bad bust, esp given the large range of numbers involved.

[Chacor]

Well, damned if they do, damned if they don't.

[wxman57]

On the bright side, you could believe the Weather Research Center's solar cycle-based forecast of 8 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and ONLY a 30% chance of a major hurricane:

http://wxresearch.org/press/2010huroutlook.pdf

[CrazyC83]

I'll believe it when I see it. I'd say the low end is more realistic. I don't see 2005-like conditions out there.