Models show low pressure forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico

[LaBreeze]

Breck on FOX 8 in NOLA showed VIPER (Tues. night at 9:30pm) forming a LOW on the front Thurs and Fri and it stays offshore south of Houma, La. for a couple of days (didnt say it would develop but I guess it could) but VIPER did show copious amounts of rain all over southern MS and La. Could be an interesting weekend. What is one to do when the weather is aweful and the oil has closed most of the beaches. What a life!!!

Local met out of Lafayette just mentioned this "possible" LOW and the heavy amounts of rain that it could bring along the coast. Is this a possible low that could develop and if it would, does anyone have any idea as to what direction it would head? Ideas/Thoughts?

[crazycajuncane]

I haven't seen tropical rains like the last two days like this in a while. Especially between Lafayette and New Iberia...

We are under a flood watch through Thursday already! I heard the same thing on the news tonight about a Low pressure forming off the coast.

[lebron23]

Anyone see the TS taken by GFDL into new orleans 00z?

[BigA]

Anyone see the TS taken by GFDL into new orleans 00z?

I can't get the 00 GFDL. It isn't on this site yet. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[KWT]

GFDL does indeed create a weak TS, the GFS tries but the system never gets into the Gulf of Mexico for long enough to develop...

Hard to deny the models have been hinting for a while, usually something does try to develop when the models are that keen, whether or not it makes it though is the question.

[ronjon]

A piece of convection has broke off from Alex over the eastern GOM. Current TPA RAD shows some slight CC turning. This is the area that the GFDL model showed developing a couple of days a go. Have to wtach to see if convection maintains itself today.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

[KWT]

There is enough there to at least warrent some attention I feel...personally I'd be a little surprised if development occurs but then again once Alex dives inland eventually alot of negative conditions abate for the region, then it depends on whether it can flare convection on its own really.

[caneman]

Ronjon,
It certainly is bringing us some much needed rainfall. We'll have to keep an eye on it.

[Bocadude85]

Will be interesting to see how this pans out

[N2Storms]

Will be interesting to see how this pans out



Well, the various NWSs don't really seem to be sold on this actually happening so I am not putting much stock into that happening....

[bob rulz]

Well, the various NWSs don't really seem to be sold on this actually happening so I am not putting much stock into that happening....

Still though, stranger and more unexpected things have happened in the tropics.

[Dean4Storms]

Strange this morning we started out with the mid and lower flow out of the SSE here in Destin but throughout the morning it has now veered around to out of the E and ENE.

Some of the offshore storms are now moving WSW.

Something is afoot!

Check out our local radar

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

HPC in the Bahamas:

A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH... THE 00Z GFS FORMS
A LOW ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE BAHAMAS BY DAY 5 AND BRINGS
IT WWD TO THE SC COAST BY DAY 7. THE GFS PARALLEL/CANADIAN AGREE
WITH THE GFS DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THE SYS.
GIVEN PREFERENCES FOR THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN OF THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND A PROPENSITY
FOR THE GFS TO OVER-AMPLIFY SUCH DISTURBANCES...WE WILL NOT DEPICT
THIS SYSTEM UNTIL THE CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS BETTER
MODEL SUPPORT.

[HURAKAN]

Is that for Alex or for another system?

[KWT]

I'm guessing its the convection around this system that but it won't develop I'd have thought...

[NOLA2010]

Someone said in the Alex models forum, that the EURO is showing another Brownsville storm next week

[baygirl_1]

Mobile NWS mentioned it in this morning's AFD:

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LOTS OF DISPARITY IN
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT TIME FRAME.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND MORE DEPENDABLE OF LATE SO IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD IT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN
ODD-LOOKING WAVE THAT PRODUCES 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE AND JUST LOOKS WRONG.

[HURAKAN]

From HWRF

[Weatherfreak000]

I wonder if TC Development like the HWRF and GFDL suggest could potentially churn the oil away from land, and be something of a saving grace?


What's the possibility of this? It never actually shows the system going inland...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

On our local news at 5 the ocm talked about this scenario for a minute. Showed their in-house models developing a low along the stalled front around Tallahassee friday morning moving south into gulf then moving west towards se la for the weekend. Said the nws has discounted this scenario but other models are and have been showing this for a couple of days. Would not discount the possibilty but also said not convinced it will happen either, sounded like he was 50-50. Who knows maybe/maybe not.