Is the 2010 season still on track towards 18+ or not?

[Texas Snowman]

Still usually anything of decent strength before the start of August is a bit of a bonus, the fact Alex got so strong should really be ringing alarm bells in peoples minds, not many June systems get to category-2.

Absolutely. Alex - IMO - would have easily gone Cat 3 or maybe even Cat 4 with another 12 hours or so over water. Big time alarm bells in my mind.

Whatever the final number of named storms turns out to be, I think 2010 will be remembered for the intensity of landfalling storms.

2005 is the big kahuna in terms of numbers but most everyone will remember it for three wicked ladies named Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

[cycloneye]

I just found out that TSR released today their July update and they increased the numbers from 18/10/4 they had in June to 19/10/5.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[KWT]

Interesting to see they go as high as 19 now!

Something that does need to be watched is the July numbers though, nearly every season that went above 18NS bar 1969 had 2-3NS in July or more and therefore if you are going to get very high numbers you do tend to want July to chip in, though as 1969 proved its not the be all either...

[HurrMark]

I just found out that TSR released today their July update and they increased the numbers from 18/10/4 they had in June to 19/10/5.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

I think that from what I seen so far, the numbers should stay steady or go down a bit.

[CrazyC83]

I agree on an active fall, but I don't know about a hyperactive early season. I said no.

Still, the number of Invests so early is alarming (that is the only reason June was so active in the EPAC as that is where the conditions were ripe before Alex broke that chain).

[cycloneye]

I just found out that TSR released today their July update and they increased the numbers from 18/10/4 they had in June to 19/10/5.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

I think that from what I seen so far, the numbers should stay steady or go down a bit.

I think the August forecasts by the experts will stay the same or go down a little from the June ones if July doesn't provide support for a hyperactive season.

[KWT]

They will probably hold I think even if August only ends up getting 1 storm, there is far too much supporting a 16-18NS type season still...though I think July is make or break for the 20+ type numbers...

[xcool22]

i think more like 15 names storms now.

[KWT]

I suspect this August-October will probably be able to easily get 12-13NS in a 2 month period, I'm expecting a real explosive meat of the season and it wouldn't shock me to see some real long lasting beasts...thats why I've been not too keen on going above 16-18...that combined with the fact La Nina's don't tend to produce strong MJO events so this season may not have the spark to really push it into the stratosphere in terms of numbers.

[hurricaneCW]

18+ is still possible. We're likely to have a long season even the the first two months are near normal or slightly below. August-October could have as much as 4-5 storms per month, that's 12-15 right there. Add 1-2 in July if that occurs and maybe 1-3 in November-December plus Alex of course in June. It would add up to 15-21 storms with the average right around 18 storms.

[cycloneye]

A little setback with the no formation of Bonnie from TD2 but still the season can get 18 named storms total including Alex.

[HurrMark]

A little setback with the no formation of Bonnie from TD2 but still the season can get 18 named storms total including Alex.

Possible, although this (and 95) was definitely a setback. Doesn't seem to be anything in the pipeline right now...enjoy the weekend folks!

[Frank2]

I think the August forecasts by the experts will stay the same or go down a little from the June ones if July doesn't provide support for a hyperactive season.

I agree (and that's not just because it's me saying that - lol), but since the climatological season begins on May 5, and since we've so far we've had one hurricane and one very weak TD, and with mid-July here by this time next week (hard to believe), one named system and one very weak TD doesn't convince me in any way shape and/or form that this season will be as active as the seasonal forecasts had predicted, since even an "average" season has one named system in June every two or three years...

Just my own opinion, but really it's also common sense, based on what's taken place so far - just a guess, but based on what's been so far my guess is that it'll be more towards the average as far as number of named systems...

Frank

[NOLA2010]

I think the August forecasts by the experts will stay the same or go down a little from the June ones if July doesn't provide support for a hyperactive season.

I agree (and that's not just because it's me saying that - lol), but since the climatological season begins on May 5, and since we've so far we've had one hurricane and one very weak TD, and with mid-July here by this time next week (hard to believe), one named system and one very weak TD doesn't convince me in any way shape and/or form that this season will be as active as the seasonal forecasts had predicted, since even an "average" season has one named system in June every two or three years...

Just my own opinion, but really it's also common sense, based on what's taken place so far - just a guess, but based on what's been so far my guess is that it'll be more towards the average as far as number of named systems...

Frank

Weak TD? It was only 4MPH's away from being a tropical storm

[tolakram]

Frank,

you mentioned weak TD, but forgot to put 'strong for June' in front of hurricane.

I don't think any of us can predict, with any accuracy, how busy this season will be at this point. Not enough data.

[HurrMark]

Do keep in mind that in 1998, we had only one storm (coincidentally, Alex) through mid August, and we wound up with 14 storms. And 2000 and 2004 did not have any named storms through the end of July...both wound up with 15. So the proverbial "on-off switch" does seem to have some sort of truth in the Atlantic.

And also remember 1997...five storms throgh mid-July, and then virtually nothing the rest of the season.

[tolakram]

Do keep in mind that in 1998, we had only one storm (coincidentally, Alex) through mid August, and we wound up with 14 storms. And 2000 and 2004 did not have any named storms through the end of July...both wound up with 15. So the proverbial "on-off switch" does seem to have some sort of truth in the Atlantic.

And also remember 1997...five storms throgh mid-July, and then virtually nothing the rest of the season.

But in each case you can point to evidence that lowers the chance of storms, the same evidence that raises the chance this year. And in each case there was nothing unexpected to keep development down, it was expected (or looking back we can now expect it). So if 2010 is a normal year it will most certainly be a learning experience if we can identify what slowed it down.

[KWT]

I've said time and time again in other threads developing La Nina's tend to have slow starts...the fact we had such a strong hurricane in June really rings big alarm bells...indeed quite a few La Nina seasons start later then normal and actually are below average for the start but in warm AMO phase nearly all have ended up between 14-16NS...

Its therefore not hard to assume that 13-15NS are easily do able in the peak season with SST's rampant right now and a weak La Nina in place...it in fact reminds me a heck of a lot of 1995 right now, though the early season will probably be a touch slower overall due to the La Nina developing a little earlier and impacting the atmosphere stronger.

If you want to know why this is the case, its simply because in La Nina's MJO phases pretty much don't occur they are so weak and 2010 is no exception, its pretty much all static out there. In the early seasons the MJO phases tend to have a bigger role simply because generally the instablity isn't quite as high due to higher upper temps in the middle of summer, they will soon drop away as we get towards August and thus combined with the weakening SAL intrusions from the 20th of July onwards things will ramp up rapidly.

If you really want to see what this season will be like in its peak, take a look at the 10 day period in the EPAC where we got 3NS and a depression, with 2 major hurricanes. Lets just say the EPAC conditions were briefly probably what the Atlantic will be over a 2 month period. The reason why the EPAC got the busiest June on record ACE wise is simply because the Atlantic waves were actually stronger then they'd normally be due too conditions being so condusive in the Atlantic relative to normal (though they've briefly become more hostile due to the ULL further north and the SAL, but thats normal really) that once they reached the EPAC, they already had a headstart, also why several formed so close to the Mexico coast compared to normal in June.

The ONLY was we get an average season in terms of numbers is if we get 6-8 long lasting CV major hurricanes, maybe something like 1964...and I'm not sure thats going to be a good thing if we get the upper high profile sat where I think it likely will be over the NE states...(should start to lift out from where it is right now soon IMO)

[HURAKAN]

The problem with people is that we live in a society that want things fast and to occur now. Why wait until November when you can have 18 storms in June? People, get real. The fact that both systems have been fully of tropical origin is very important. This means that by August, September and October, storms will be popping.

[HURAKAN]

1933:

# Name Date Wind Pres Cat
1 Tropical Storm #1 14-19 MAY 40 - -
2 Hurricane #2 27 JUN- 7 JUL 90 986 2
3 Tropical Storm #3 14-20 JUL 45 - -

We're just 1 below 1933. So, chilax.