BOC system

[ROCK]

tue 0z EURO run is clear

the EURO is not showing jack for more than a few runs now.....it will soon enough though I am sure..

[xcool22]

EUROthrow it out the window HAHA

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps and GFS Para still showing some development in the SW Caribbean..I'll be watching this area closely

GFS Para



Nogaps

[rockyman]

The Para is developing this low pressure area this is already on the map:

[clfenwi]

If it's been doing it in the past, I never noticed it, but this season I've noticed the NOGAPS having a penchant for developing lows out of the southwest Caribbean towards the end of forecast periods. Kind of reminds me of how when the eastern Pacific is active, it takes to developing a 1-2-3 line of developing storms in the latter forecast periods.

It's far out enough to consider it speculative (~5 days), but NOGAPS and CMC are indicating we'll see another eastern Pacific invest/storm before we see anything in the Atlantic.

[Macrocane]

Actually you're right and the NOGAPS has been developing los pressures into tropical cyclones even before the season began , I have to accept that it verified with Alex but you know that one had other models supporting it.

[KWT]

Until I see the ECM developing this region I won't be too concerned with development, though this region probably is the one spot in the basin that could I suppose have development.

[wxman57]

None of the models develops anything significant as of yesterday. Even the Canadian has no development since 12Z yesterday. NOGAPS shows a weak low moving into Nicaragua in 5 days, but nothing significant. Nothing on the GFS parallel run or Euro. Maybe by late next week...

[rockyman]

A 1009 low has been introduced over northern Colombia on the 12z surface analysis:



A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1718.shtml?

[KWT]

I'd imagine thats the low some of the models have been trying to develop though as Wxman57 said there really isn't that much support for it anymore developing.

[Macrocane]

I think's that's the colombian low, sometimes it appears on the surface charts and sometomes it doesn't because it is semipermanent, it has triggered development in some occasions but when it is associated with another disturbance wich I think it's not the case this time. That's just my personal thought.

[rockyman]

GFS Para shows that the low has slipped off the coast in the past 18 hours (first image is 18 hours ago, second image is now):

[rockyman]

Current conditions, SW Caribbean (850 vorticity, shear, lower convergence, upper divergence).

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

Rather obvious low there, there is convection but unless it lifts up quite a lot its going to head towards land again pretty soon...still its interesting to see there is something down there even if its part of the Columbian low.

[rockyman]

I would imagine that the land is also affecting the winds in this "bowl" shaped area (apparent circulations also appear quite often in the southern Bay of Campeche, with a similar coastline)

Anyone know when the 18z GFS-Para comes out?

[Macrocane]

Rather obvious low there, there is convection but unless it lifts up quite a lot its going to head towards land again pretty soon...still its interesting to see there is something down there even if its part of the Columbian low.

I think that the time to watch will be when the tropical wave near 60 W move into the Caribbean sea and interact with the low, although as you said it could track inland soon and in that case the EPAC will be the area to watch.

[Ivanhater]

12z Nam

[rockyman]

The NAM brings the area in the Bahamas into the eastern Gulf and up toward Pensacola, possibly indicating an "opening" for the SW Caribbean system to move into the central or eastern Gomex, instead of into Central America or the Bay of Campeche

[KWT]

I think that the time to watch will be when the tropical wave near 60 W move into the Caribbean sea and interact with the low, although as you said it could track inland soon and in that case the EPAC will be the area to watch.

I suspect if any low did try and get going it would indeed be on the EPAC side, though more then likely it is just a small eddy coming off the broader Columbian low...still you never quite know with these systems.