Time to cut forecast numbers for 2010?

[HurrMark]

We're definitely going to have to cut numbers, according to this, we could see low activity for most of August not to mention the constant TUTT's hanging around and not going anywhere. I picked 14 storms, I hope it at least gets that high. If August fails, then the season will fail.

If the MJO forecast holds true, and it remains quiet for a few weeks, then we can forget about 18 storms...16 (my forecast) might be a stretch.

I think this year, however, geography is playing as much of a role as unfavorable conditions, if not more...three systems (Invest 95, TD 2 and now Invest 98) easily could have developed had there been another 50-100 miles to work with before moving onshore.

[KWT]

We're definitely going to have to cut numbers, according to this, we could see low activity for most of August not to mention the constant TUTT's hanging around and not going anywhere. I picked 14 storms, I hope it at least gets that high. If August fails, then the season will fail.

. [/b]

Well lets just say the MJO wave doesn't make a single bit of difference in La Nina...In 1998 the MJO barely shifted at all and in fact this year has shown more motion, didn't stop 13NS forming from mid August onwards. Assuming we get another storm before the 20th August we should still have every chance of getting 16+

Those MJO forecastsd by the way...and no offense...but they are putrid, they may just be one of the most poorly forecasted aspect of global weather out there!

[Macrocane]

Well lets just say the MJO wave doesn't make a single bit of difference in La Nina...In 1998 the MJO barely shifted at all and in fact this year has shown more motion, didn't stop 13NS forming from mid August onwards. Assuming we get another storm before the 20th August we should still have every chance of getting 16+

Those MJO forecastsd by the way...and no offense...but they are putrid, they may just be one of the most poorly forecasted aspect of global weather out there!

I completely agree with you, I have been said several times that this year doesn't seem to be an MJO year the signal has been weak and has not propagate too much but that doesn't mean it won't be an active season it just means that MJO won't play an important role.

[Aquawind]

Those MJO forecastsd by the way...and no offense...but they are putrid, they may just be one of the most poorly forecasted aspect of global weather out there!

Why do you think that is? To many variables? We don't really understand MJO? What is the most reliable information? What reliable information shows the current state of the MJO?

I would really like to hear from someone about this and not just links as I have gotten many times.

[hurricaneCW]

The MJO means a lot when the SAL is so overpowering due to a stronger than normal Azores high. The most you'll get is a few weak tropical storms in the western gulf or Caribbean because no African waves have a chance to get going unless there is a positive MJO when the Azores High is too strong and we see wave after wave of SAL like the one right now. The constant TUTT's in the western Atlantic will also cut down any storm that tries to go there. Honestly, we were more favorable a couple of months ago where there was barely any SAL due to a weak Azores high, and Upper Level winds were setting up to be favorable. Now everything is in reverse, but that doesn't mean it's going to be like 2006 or 2009. I do think we will see 1 or 2 storms that overcomes all negativity and blows up in a big way. All it takes is one storm to make a difference.

[Category 5]

I'll keep it short and sweet.

No.


Actually let me add to it.

This date:

2004: 0/0/0
2010: 2/1/0

Y'all remember 2004?

[Scorpion]

The MJO means a lot when the SAL is so overpowering due to a stronger than normal Azores high. The most you'll get is a few weak tropical storms in the western gulf or Caribbean because no African waves have a chance to get going unless there is a positive MJO when the Azores High is too strong and we see wave after wave of SAL like the one right now. The constant TUTT's in the western Atlantic will also cut down any storm that tries to go there. Honestly, we were more favorable a couple of months ago where there was barely any SAL due to a weak Azores high, and Upper Level winds were setting up to be favorable. Now everything is in reverse, but that doesn't mean it's going to be like 2006 or 2009. I do think we will see 1 or 2 storms that overcomes all negativity and blows up in a big way. All it takes is one storm to make a difference.

Its July, never a big time for tropical wave development.

[somethingfunny]

I'll keep it short and sweet.

No.


Actually let me add to it.

This date:

2004: 0/0/0
2010: 2/1/0

Y'all remember 2004?

The entire past 15 year busy period as of July 23:

1995: 3/1/0
1996: 2/1/1
1997: 4/2/0
1998: 1/0/0
1999: 1/0/0
2000: 0/0/0
2001: 1/0/0
2002: 1/0/0
2003: 4/2/0
2004: 0/0/0
2005: 6/3/2
2006: 3/0/0
2007: 2/0/0
2008: 4/2/1
2009: 0/0/0
2010: 2/1/0

We're behind 2006 and 1997, but ahead of 1998, 1999, and 2004. Go figure. Let's come back to this topic in a month.

[gilbert88]

I'll keep it short and sweet.

No.


Actually let me add to it.

This date:

2004: 0/0/0
2010: 2/1/0

Y'all remember 2004?

The entire past 15 year busy period as of July 23:

1995: 3/1/0
1996: 2/1/1
1997: 4/2/0
1998: 1/0/0
1999: 1/0/0
2000: 0/0/0
2001: 1/0/0
2002: 1/0/0
2003: 4/2/0
2004: 0/0/0
2005: 6/3/2
2006: 3/0/0
2007: 2/0/0
2008: 4/2/1
2009: 0/0/0
2010: 2/1/0

We're behind 2006 and 1997, but ahead of 1998, 1999, and 2004. Go figure. Let's come back to this topic in a month.

THIS.

Excellent post.

[BigA]

Not to mention that La Nina years tend to be late-season skewed. I took a cursory glance at years in which a La Nina was in place during the early part of the season, and it looks like there is a bias against significant storms in June and July. I'll do a bit of statistics later today or this weekend to confrim or refute this. In any event, 1998 and 1999 come to mind as La Nina seasons in which the second storm of each year formed in mid-late August.

[HURAKAN]

A fast start doesn't mean you will go further!!

[cycloneye]

Not to mention that La Nina years tend to be late-season skewed. I took a cursory glance at years in which a La Nina was in place during the early part of the season, and it looks like there is a bias against significant storms in June and July. I'll do a bit of statistics later today or this weekend to confrim or refute this. In any event, 1998 and 1999 come to mind as La Nina seasons in which the second storm of each year formed in mid-late August.

You know BigA, I was thinking about making a thread about that topic you are talking about,but go ahead and bring the stats I have seen stats that are posted at the ENSO Updates thread that show La Nina seasons trend to have less activity than neutral ones.

[WeatherEmperor]

1998: The 2nd named storm did not form until August 19th. The entire season produced 14 named storms.

2000: The 1st named storm did not form until August 3rd. The entire season produced 14 named storms + 1 un-named sub-tropical storm.

2004: The 1st named storm did not form until August 1st. The entire season produced 15 named storms.

1995 and 2005 were active from start to finish. But the 2010 season does NOT have to be active from start to finish in order for it to be a very active season. I suppose the pre-season predictions caused many people's expectations to jump too much. Let's go back to 2004 for a minute. August produced 8 named storms. 8 named storms!!!. That is almost an entire hurricane season's worth of storms in just 1 month.

The point I am trying to make is that when the SAL diminishes and the wind shear relaxes, the Atlantic has the ability to spit out storm after storm after storm just like the aforementioned seasons have all done. For those seasons, eventually the lid came off the pressure cooker and the seasons exploded with activity.

What worries for me for 2010, is the SST Anomalies in the Atlantic. This year the SST anomalies are higher then 1998 or 2000 or 2004. In fact, they are near record levels. What will happen THIS year when the lid finally comes off? How much explosive action will we see? Will we see another 8 named storms this August, just like 2004? What about September? What about October? Just relax guys. It'll come.....

<RICKY>

[StormClouds63]

Yes, the forecasted numbers are too high. I think 13-15 named storms is more realistic. FWIW, my prediction prior to the season was 13/7/3.

1969 or 1995 numbers are still possible, though I think very unlikely. 2005 numbers? No way.

[BigA]

Here are the statistics for early season activity from 1950 to 2009.

From 1950 to 2009, the time before August produced, on average, 1.7 tropical storms and 0.71 hurricanes

For neutral years: 2.09 storms and 0.88 hurricanes

For La Nina years: 1.36 storms and 0.5 hurricanes

For El Nino years: 1.08 storms and 0.54 hurricanes.

Note, this includes every tropical storm or hurricane that had its first advisory issued before August, even if the cyclone attained tropical storm or hurricane intensity in August.

These numbers do not include subtropical storms.

[Ptarmigan]

I'll keep it short and sweet.

No.


Actually let me add to it.

This date:

2004: 0/0/0
2010: 2/1/0

Y'all remember 2004?

The entire past 15 year busy period as of July 23:

1995: 3/1/0
1996: 2/1/1
1997: 4/2/0
1998: 1/0/0
1999: 1/0/0
2000: 0/0/0
2001: 1/0/0
2002: 1/0/0
2003: 4/2/0
2004: 0/0/0
2005: 6/3/2
2006: 3/0/0
2007: 2/0/0
2008: 4/2/1
2009: 0/0/0
2010: 2/1/0

We're behind 2006 and 1997, but ahead of 1998, 1999, and 2004. Go figure. Let's come back to this topic in a month.

I have said before. Early start means little to me. 1998, 1999, and 2004 were late starters and ended up being active and devastating. I think we are spoiled by 2005.

[frederic79]

I think the thing that I didn't expect was upper level shear. One of the main reasons for bullish forecasts was lower than normal shear values across the Atlantic basin, including the GOM and Caribbean. Yet a large majority of us S2K members sat glued to our computers for the past week or so only to watch 97L/ Bonnie repeatedly beaten down by upper level wind shear. Other invests met similar fate as well. So maybe it is too early to expect lower shear but reality sure seems to conflict with predictions of lower shear.

[cycloneye]

Here we are with still 2/1/0 on the second day of August and now the week that the experts will release their August updates has arrived. What will they do,leave them the same as their May ones or go down a little as I dont think any of them will rise numbers more? We will find out this week, should be very interesting.

[KWT]

If Colin forms this week then the agencies may only drop by the odd storm, conditions aloft are just about ready now for CV development from the looks of things and I wouldn't be surprised if in 2 weeks we are looking at one after another developing from CV waves...