Convection in Yucatan

[cycloneye]

It got a mention in the TWO but 1%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BONNIE LOCATED ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS
NOT ANTICIPATED...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[MortisFL]

LOL, a 1% chance...code yellow.

[HURAKAN]

I don't get mentioning it and saying 0%. We are smart enough to understand that if the NHC doesn't mention it, then the chances are pretty much 0%.

[Gustywind]

1%

[Javlin]

What about these ULL's? reminds me alittle of 03.It will be tough on deveolpment should they persist not a bad thing.

[rockyman]

Low level vorticity increasing (but still under the TUTT):
12 hours ago:

Now:

[ConvergenceZone]

Based on the way the Atlantic and Carib looks, it appears we might be entering a LULL for a couple of weeks.

[gatorcane]

headed towards Central America it looks like....

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

Surprised no one has commented since this morning. That area of convection has maintained for several hours now.

[dixiebreeze]

I've been watching it all evening. Seems pretty tenacious. Perfect conditions, I think.

[abajan]

Just to be clear, this thread is about the area SSW of Jamaica in the Western Caribbean and not the Gulf of Mexico, correct? If so, it’s certainly impressive.

[Nimbus]

Its the only convection out there thats interesting, but we don't know if there is low pressure at the surface underneath. Does look like there was an ULL north of it earlier.

edit

Looks like the ULL might follow the rest of the flow NW around the building ridge.
That would have the effect of pulling that blob north away from the Nicaraguan coast.
The blob has gone through two convection bursting cycles over the same general area and the convection doesn't look like its just being fanned up by the ULL.

[KWT]

Nice convection with this one but I wouldn't be expecting much to come off it. The models did call for this area to occur and weaken it as it heads WNW.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a twist off Nicaragua/Honduras corner there. Could be our next thread.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like quite a lot of spin in Caribbean and BOC.

[KWT]

Just looks like an area of fairly disturbed weather right now, good convection all over the place but nothing to pull it all together just yet.

[HURAKAN]

tropical wave arriving soon, may trigger even more convection

[floridasun78]

it look like moving nw area in sw carribbean i do see spin in area too

[redfish1]

does anyone think we can get an invest out of this soon?

[Nederlander]

doesnt look like theres a lot of room to work with on this one... convection isnt as strong as it was either... conditions across most of the atlantic basin are pretty hostile for TC development right now.. tons of shear in the gulf, lost of dry air east of the caribbean.. probably wont get anything else until August... then itll be CV time