When will Colin form

[xcool22]

August 3 - 11

[StormTracker]

Aug. 7-12

[taccido]

Meteorologists and computer models are really terrible at predicting hurricanes more than a couple days ahead. If you want to find out when the next storm will happen you would probably be better off asking Paul the Octopus than a pro met. Just my opinion.

[rockyman]

Meteorologists and computer models are really terrible at predicting hurricanes more than a couple days ahead. If you want to find out when the next storm will happen you would probably be better off asking Paul the Octopus than a pro met. Just my opinion.

Out of your grand total of 4 posts on Storm2k, you've chosen to insult pro mets on 3 of them.

[ConvergenceZone]

Meteorologists and computer models are really terrible at predicting hurricanes more than a couple days ahead. If you want to find out when the next storm will happen you would probably be better off asking Paul the Octopus than a pro met. Just my opinion.

I think this is a bit uncalled for. There have been many instances on this board where the mets have nailed their earlier predictions......Of course
they aren't going to nail them all... That's just the tropics for you.

But if you are thinking that they should be able to predict when exactly the next storm is going to form, that's not possible.......

[taccido]

"But if you are thinking that they should be able to predict when exactly the next storm is going to form, that's not possible......."

Yes, that is what I was trying to say. It is impossible for anyone, even the experts, to know. It is merely a guessing game. No one should be insulted by what I said because no one can do the impossible, i.e. predict the exact date of the next storm.

"Out of your grand total of 4 posts on Storm2k, you've chosen to insult pro mets on 3 of them."

No, that is false. No pro met would ever assert in a million years that they can predict the precise date of the next storm.

[hurricaneCW]

Colin will form on August 1st from an African wave. He will become a tropical storm in the central Atlantic and trek all the way into the Bahamas. He will make landfall as a Cat 1 storm with winds of 90mph. The reason he didn't get stronger was because he struggled to strengthen due to a combination of dry air and wind shear of 15-20 knots, but he finally got going just east of the Bahamas. He impacts the east coast of central Florida late on August 6th or early August 7th. He enters the gulf as a TS with winds of about 60-65mph. He regains hurricane status and makes landfall near Pensacola as a minimal hurricane with wind speeds of 75mph.

I'll see you in a week Colin.

[somethingfunny]

Colin will form on August 1st from an African wave. He will become a tropical storm in the central Atlantic and trek all the way into the Bahamas. He will make landfall as a Cat 1 storm with winds of 90mph. The reason he didn't get stronger was because he struggled to strengthen due to a combination of dry air and wind shear of 15-20 knots, but he finally got going just east of the Bahamas. He impacts the east coast of central Florida late on August 6th or early August 7th. He enters the gulf as a TS with winds of about 60-65mph. He regains hurricane status and makes landfall near Pensacola as a minimal hurricane with wind speeds of 75mph.

I'll see you in a week Colin.

I wish we were allowed to set up gambling accounts on PayPal over things like this. I'd pay you $50 if it happens.

I think Colin will form sometime prior to when Danielle forms.

[bamajammer4eva]

The accurate, dependable and always correct GFS says Aug 5th so of course thats whats going to happen.

[ROCK]

I will go 8/5.....the CV season is about to kick into overdrive IMO....

[AdamFirst]

If the MJO forecasts are correct, I'll wait until mid-August. Begin the season cancel clamor in the meantime.

[hurricaneCW]

The lack of an MJO wave doesn't determine whether or not we will see tropical activity. Now that the SAL is decreasing and the La Nina is getting stronger, the MJO wave really doesn't matter. Any MJO activity will just enhance things a bit especially further west.

[wzrgirl1]

I am going for August 7th.

[Macrocane]

The lack of an MJO wave doesn't determine whether or not we will see tropical activity. Now that the SAL is decreasing and the La Nina is getting stronger, the MJO wave really doesn't matter. Any MJO activity will just enhance things a bit especially further west.

Thank you, you said exactly what I was thinking, the MJO could enhance tropical cyclone activity but not always is a determinant factor and in La Niña seasons it is not as important as in Neutral seasons.

[hurricaneCW]

Colin will form on August 1st from an African wave. He will become a tropical storm in the central Atlantic and trek all the way into the Bahamas. He will make landfall as a Cat 1 storm with winds of 90mph. The reason he didn't get stronger was because he struggled to strengthen due to a combination of dry air and wind shear of 15-20 knots, but he finally got going just east of the Bahamas. He impacts the east coast of central Florida late on August 6th or early August 7th. He enters the gulf as a TS with winds of about 60-65mph. He regains hurricane status and makes landfall near Pensacola as a minimal hurricane with wind speeds of 75mph.

I'll see you in a week Colin.

I was pretty close with the formation date.

[NOLA2010]

thats pretty close CW. not probably going to be right on the middle to last parts, but you did pretty good on predicting development

[somethingfunny]

Colin will form on August 1st from an African wave. He will become a tropical storm in the central Atlantic and trek all the way into the Bahamas. He will make landfall as a Cat 1 storm with winds of 90mph. The reason he didn't get stronger was because he struggled to strengthen due to a combination of dry air and wind shear of 15-20 knots, but he finally got going just east of the Bahamas. He impacts the east coast of central Florida late on August 6th or early August 7th. He enters the gulf as a TS with winds of about 60-65mph. He regains hurricane status and makes landfall near Pensacola as a minimal hurricane with wind speeds of 75mph.

I'll see you in a week Colin.

I wish we were allowed to set up gambling accounts on PayPal over things like this. I'd pay you $50 if it happens.

I think Colin will form sometime prior to when Danielle forms.

Phew! Day late, dollar short!

[KWT]

Well TD4 is probably not far away from being Colin so could well be pretty soon from the looks of things...

[dwsqos2]

September 22

[Jinkers]

Aug 3