Slow Season?

[AdamFirst]

And the fact we had a Category 5 storm in the Pacific in June also says something.

[Steve H.]

Watch the central Atlantic. Think we will have something brewing soon

[KWT]

Some interesting convection between 30-40W at around 8-10N. The overall shear isn't too strong either, the persistent TUTT in the Atlantic has weakened and SAL has decreased. I don't see why something couldn't form in the next 5-10 days.

Whilst I agree with the main idea I think it may just be a little while yet before something gets going. That being said don't be surprised if we get another TD2/95L/98L type system that tries to get going close to land, La Ninas seem to get quite a few of those sorts of systems.

As for being behind schedule, how many seasons have we ever had abov e 18NS...not many. Our database is so small for those types of seasons its very difficult to know how often they occur compared to the early brewers...2004 wasn't that far off from 1969 really, just the El nino kicked back in a little earlier then 1969...

One other thing...we will NOT have 10NS overall...even 2009 with its hellish shear from the strong El nino managed 9NS from this point onwards, which would take this season to 11NS...thats the utter low point IMO.

[Ivanhater]

Here is a great discussion form Crown weather about the rest of the season and all the season bust talk

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

[Florida1118]

Interesting about the track for mid aug. Hopefully thays not true.

[ConvergenceZone]

Ivanhater, that article you posted is why we need to wait until the end of NEXT week, before we potentially lower the numbers. As I stated on the other thread, we'll be moving into the 2nd week of August by the END of next week.....
If by the end of next week there isn't anything even on the horizon, then I think it's a good bet to lower the numbers....

[abajan]

I see no reason whatsoever to lower expectations for a very active season. We are already off to an above average start and I have a gut feeling we’ll see a December system or two too. (I know “gut feelings” aren’t exactly in the realm of the scientific but they should count for something.)

[lonelymike]

Interesting about the track for mid aug. Hopefully thays not true.

If you can predict the steering patterns more than five days out call me and we'll go and win the Powerball lottery.

I'm sure it will ramp up but steering patterns will and do often change.

[hurricaneCW]

Hopefully in a month or month in a half we're not talking about this season as being one of the costliest or deadliest in the last century or something. The track scenario is very scary, and it doesn't look like it will be a 1995 type of year with many out to sea storms. A lot can change in a week or two.

[gatorcane]

I'd add a third way to evaluate seasonal activity - impact. It won't matter to most folks that we hit 18 or 20 named storms if they're all forming and tracking out to sea or into less-populated regions of Central America. Doesn't matter if the ace is 300. The general public equate activity with impact. It'll just take a couple of major hurricane impacts (and I don't mean Cat 3-4-5, Ike was a Cat 2) in key areas (Florida, East Coast, New Orleans) for the public to conclude it was a very bad season, even if there are only 10 named storms in 2010.

Isn't this the true. I agree 100% with this. We could have 25 systems that form way out in the Atlantic and recurve far away from those areas you mentioned and this season would go down as forgettable.

As for MWatkins points on ACE and possible correlation to 2004 more so than 2005, I certainly can see his points here. I too see this system behaving more like 2004 than 2005. With above average SSTs, lower than normal pressure across most of the Atlantic as predicted by the long-range ECMWF, and La Nina which should keep shear below normal (it is already below normal for July), I could definitely see some storms that really bring the ACE up, long trackers like Frances and Ivan that we follow for 10 days or more as they traverse the Atlantic. I do expect several fish systems but I would expect some to make a run at areas farther west as well. It's impossible at this point to know the breakdown though...

Right now when I look at the Atlantic as we near the beginning of August it is eerily quiet out there, the "calm before the storm" so-to-speak. It's so quiet that you can take a sailboat from Florida to Africa and likely not hit a shower or storm for thousands of miles -- would basically be rain free. There is alot of excess heat to remove from the tropics and without any significant system really anywhere in the Atlantic, the SSTs are likely going to rise a bit more.

[hurricanetrack]

I really like that Crown Weather disco. Very thorough, just goes to show there are a lot of great resources out there. Take advantage of them all, get to know the ones you trust and you'll be in the know.

[KWT]

Ivanhater, that article you posted is why we need to wait until the end of NEXT week, before we potentially lower the numbers. As I stated on the other thread, we'll be moving into the 2nd week of August by the END of next week.....
If by the end of next week there isn't anything even on the horizon, then I think it's a good bet to lower the numbers....

Yeah but note in 1998 things rteally did flip like a switch, they also did that in 1969 and 2004. We went from pretty nothing to several storms overnight. The several current negative factors will probably ease off over the next 2-3 weeks and once that happens and we get the MJO phase heading back towards the favourable zone, if only weakly, then things will kick off.

[OuterBanker]

July 27, 2004 0 named storms, busy season predicted. Numbers must be lowered. Season over.

Anyone done a study on how many season over statements that year at this time?

There was a cluster of tsorms off the Carolina cast at the time however,

[crownweather]

Thanks so much everyone regarding the nice comments on the site and our discussions.

Rob Lightbown/Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

[Ptarmigan]

I think we'll have an active season. This lull might lead to complacency.

[KWT]

Yeah thats a chance, esp because Alex tracked over Mexico and Bonnie pretty died in situ...so people may not be too aware and I wouldn't want to think what would happen if we had a system RI before landfall suddenly.

[RL3AO]

Prediction: Will be at or above 14 storms by the end of September.

[psyclone]

i just got back from a two week vacation and i'm suffering from storm2k withdrawl! this is an interesting thread. i think tossing out an active season at this point is like calling a ball game in the first inning. i still suspect we'll have an active season. i always tell my friends and family that real hurricane season begins august 1 and runs through october. i wouldn't be surpsrised if we're tracking 2 ot 3 storms simultaneously at some point in sept. that said, i did guess 18 storms in the pre season poll and my high guess was predicated on about 3 or 4 storms froming prior to august 1. if i had to guess now i would probably drop that a notch or two. still, that's plenty. i don't think we'll be bored too much the next three months.

[Stormcenter]

If we have 2 develop within the next two weeks then it's very possible otherwise
it's time to revise predictions downward. IMO.

Prediction: Will be at or above 14 storms by the end of September.

[KWT]

Nah we could still have nothing upto the 14th August and if we were to follow 1969 we'd end up with 19NS still...so still enough time for well over 14 storms.