Blob at 30w (Is invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

All we got on the 8 AM discussion was a sentence about a surface trough in the ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N18W 8N31W 9N44W 8N62W. A
SURFACE TROUGH LIES WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 11N29W TO 7N31W
ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
27W-36W.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[srainhoutx]

I would not be surprised to see an Invest for this wave.

[hurricaneCW]

It still doesn't look like anything more than part of the ITCZ. I agree that they should say something about the wave further west especially since it's going to impact those islands very shortly, but there's not much to say about the 30W blob just yet.

[Frank2]

Perhaps an invest, but it's so low in latitude that it's almost (8N) on the equator (nice EUMETSAT photo)...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[srainhoutx]

[ConvergenceZone]

This blob looks really good....Let's see if it holds together.

[RL3AO]

It has "the look", but it may just be an illusion.

[ConvergenceZone]

It has "the look", but it may just be an illusion.

LOL. These days you never know. However, at least it's held its convection, unlike other waves that have emerged lately.

[Aric Dunn]

The problem and some have eluded to it... its part of the ITCZ and it can easily be seen by the linear boundary that is just north of which is feeding into the wave emerging off Africa. at best this will eventually merge with the wave and help get things going as the wave approaches it.

[bvigal]

Got my attention. If this maintains convection to heights it has now, will certainly deserve an invest. I recall many previous clusters like this that were below 10N when invest began, some developed after moving further north, and a few were ultimately hurricanes, which taught me not to ignore them just because they are 'low'.

[ConvergenceZone]

The problem and some have eluded to it... its part of the ITCZ and it can easily be seen by the linear boundary that is just north of which is feeding into the wave emerging off Africa. at best this will eventually merge with the wave and help get things going as the wave approaches it.

or I've also seen in the past where these waves will begin to pull up as they approach the islands, so maybe that will be the case with this wave.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/ft-l.jpg

Got my attention. If this maintains convection to heights it has now, will certainly deserve an invest. I recall many previous clusters like this that were below 10N when invest began, some developed after moving further north, and a few were ultimately hurricanes, which taught me not to ignore them just because they are 'low'.

Invest, we can't even get a Code Yellow with 0% chance for this area. That convection has persisted for >24 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/ft-l.jpg

Got my attention. If this maintains convection to heights it has now, will certainly deserve an invest. I recall many previous clusters like this that were below 10N when invest began, some developed after moving further north, and a few were ultimately hurricanes, which taught me not to ignore them just because they are 'low'.

Invest, we can't even get a Code Yellow with 0% chance for this area. That convection has persisted for >24 hours.

well I dont think it needs to be an invest as of yet as it is not a "wave" and is part of the ITCZ. the latest surface plots at 12z just now show a slight break in the ITCZ associated with the area of convection and the main wave is just now exiting africa. If this were to develop it will have to break from the ITCZ and manage to stay away from the large wave emerging off africa which has pretty good inflow and will likely absorb this area. still needs to be watched..

[hcane27]

Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.

According to the above definition there is obviously no tropical cyclone forecast center interested in collecting specialized data or running model guidance disseminated to the public. They are the "hired" professionals and if they are not interested , maybe it is because they have access to data that the general public does not.

Just my 2 cents ....

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... asec6vis04

Nice loop of this system

[cycloneye]

Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.

According to the above definition there is obviously no tropical cyclone forecast center interested in collecting specialized data or running model guidance disseminated to the public. They are the "hired" professionals and if they are not interested , maybe it is because they have access to data that the general public does not.

Just my 2 cents ....

They started to do a test for this area.

PGI-22L

[KWT]

The NHC aren't really too keen on this region interesting because some models do try and develop this region...surely the NHC have to wake up soon, they put 10% on blobs that have 0 chance then ignore something that has had a great presentation for 48hrs...though granted it does still seem tobe in the ITCZ...