CSU (Klotzbach/Gray) Update

[KWT]

Yeah I think the pattern probably will be replaced, its not really a typical La Nina pattern.

Typically La Ninas tend to be Caribbean/E.coast usually and from what I'm seeing I suspect this will be the case this year as well, there is a fairly decent weaknesses out there (just look at Colin now) but I think thats going to be more of a September track.

I bet we get a big un in the Caribbean in the next month FWIW, La Ninas tend to get cat-4/5s into CA most seasons.

[hurricaneCW]

Very impressive convective activity in the eastern Atlantic. If anything it should sweep up some of that dry air. Something big might even form out of it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

[abajan]

15 more storms is doable to get to 18. For example, 3 more in August, 6 in September, 5 in October, and 1 in November.

I think the season will be active in the late months.

I actually expect 1 or even 2 out of season systems in December. Time will tell, of course.

[tolakram]

Just to be clear...

Note that they aren't 'seeing' anything, they are using statistical data and indicators to predict storm numbers. If their indicators are not enough to capture the true potential of the season then the forecast will bust.

[thetruesms]

Just to be clear...

Note that they aren't 'seeing' anything, they are using statistical data and indicators to predict storm numbers. If their indicators are not enough to capture the true potential of the season then the forecast will bust.

Indeed - they actually have two schemes - one statistical, using SSTs, SLP, ENSO, and storms to date; also, they have an analog method. It appears that their final numbers are very heavily weighted to the analog method (read: essentially ignores the statistical method). They don't really explain why this is so, perhaps it has something to do with the fact that they are apparently using a new statistical scheme? Anyway, I'd recommend to anyone reading their full document to learn more about how they create their forecast: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... ug2010.pdf. It's a technical document, but I think it's actually pretty accessible, at least compared to other things I've read.

Also, I think it's about time we recognize Dr. Klotzbach for the work he does. He's been the first author on these for four years now - this is now more his project than Dr. Gray's.

[Ivanhater]

Wow..am I reading it right they didn't lower their numbers? That speaks volumes to what is ahead imo

[RL3AO]

The title should be Dr. Klotzbach update.

[supercane]

Just to be clear...

Note that they aren't 'seeing' anything, they are using statistical data and indicators to predict storm numbers. If their indicators are not enough to capture the true potential of the season then the forecast will bust.

Indeed - they actually have two schemes - one statistical, using SSTs, SLP, ENSO, and storms to date; also, they have an analog method. It appears that their final numbers are very heavily weighted to the analog method (read: essentially ignores the statistical method). They don't really explain why this is so, perhaps it has something to do with the fact that they are apparently using a new statistical scheme? Anyway, I'd recommend to anyone reading their full document to learn more about how they create their forecast: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... ug2010.pdf. It's a technical document, but I think it's actually pretty accessible, at least compared to other things I've read.

Also, I think it's about time we recognize Dr. Klotzbach for the work he does. He's been the first author on these for four years now - this is now more his project than Dr. Gray's.

Their ultimate forecast has almost always seemed to lean toward the analog method compared to the statistical method. It's just that some years, the numbers are closer.

[HURAKAN]

15 more storms is doable to get to 18. For example, 3 more in August, 6 in September, 5 in October, and 1 in November.

I think the season will be active in the late months.

That was on August 4. We got 4 storms in August, so far 6 in September and likely 7 or 8 before the month ends. October should also be active. So 18 storms doesn't seem that out of the reach anymore!!