"An active Atlantic hurricane period coming" - Jeff Masters

[Portastorm]

My expectations came from NOAA and other so called experts who through out numbers ranging from 14-23 named storms. I just don't see the benefit of it at all. What is the point of putting numbers out there? All you do is leave yourself open for criticism. Wouldn't it be easier just to say we are expecting an active or average season. When the "Average Joe" sees numbers like that they "expect" a busy season from the beginning. Anyway my key has always been the quality of the storms and where they make landfall and not the quantity. It only takes 1 Katrina type storm to make it an active season for many.

Just because NOAA predicted 14-23 storms doesn't mean that activity was going to start happening early and often as your previous post indicated. It seems to me that you had that expectation going into the season based on the numbers you saw. Let's say NOAA goes ahead and starts by indicating a season is "average" or "active" or "above average." The next natural question in people's minds is "well, what's average? how many storms?" and then you get back into the numbers debate. I don't see any way around it.

I know you're not alone here Stormcenter. There's plenty of folks who agree with you and that's fine. Perhaps NOAA should make an effort at describing how they think the season is going to go from a chronological perspective. In this case, perhaps they could have explained that due to La Nina effects the season might get more active late in the summer. Of course, the skill level in doing something like that has got to be fairly low. But from a communications analysis standpoint, I agree that it would help the "Average Joe."

[ColinDelia]

My expectations came from NOAA and other so called experts who through out numbers ranging from 14-23 named storms. I just don't see the benefit of it at all. What is the point of putting numbers out there? All you do is leave yourself open for criticism. Wouldn't it be easier just to say we are expecting an active or average season. When the "Average Joe" sees numbers like that they "expect" a busy season from the beginning. Anyway my key has always been the quality of the storms and where they make landfall and not the quantity. It only takes 1 Katrina type storm to make it an active season for many.

As with all science there are different levels of understanding for different people. I agree with you that "average" or "above average" is good enough for most people information-wise. However 14-23 is understood as the width of one standard deviation by the scientific community. As such there is information conveyed about the expected probability distribution of such seasons that is being related. That information can only be given with a range - in this case "14-23". By conveying the width of a standard deviation allows a researcher or research team to create a prediction scheme for comparison so that it can be judged as superior or inferior. When other researchers create a prediction scheme they should also give the information as a range. CSU's paper conveys this information, for example.

What is meant specifically by the forecast is that about 70% of all seasons similar to this one will have between 14 and 23 names storms. It also conveys the information that 15% of all seasons will have less than 14 storms. One could take it further and figure out from the two standard deviation mark that 95% of such seasons will have more than 5.5 named storms. 15% is about 1 in 7 so it is not all that uncommon when someone gives a one standard deviation width as "14-23" that the actual number comes in less. It would happen more than once per decade if every decade had similar conditions to this one.

[ROCK]

Haven't we heard this song before?
After all it's very obvious this season is not following
the script at all. They way I undestood it we were going
to have storms forming left and right from the get go like 2005.
Well that hasn't been the case. Oh don't get me wrong I'm sure
we willl have activity ramp up the next few weeks and I expect
to see at least 2-3 big boys form in the next month but will they
survive or come close to U.S. mainland is the key. We shall see.

Dr Master's is right on with his take....you can see it in every long range model...We could be tracking 3 storms at one time next week...

SC, you have lost faith bro?.... look at the potential out there right now....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

true the year is starting out slow for 2nd week of August but those numbers 16+ are attainable as the season runs into Oct.....as far as US issues one just needs to look at some of the recent globals.....IMO the ALT is going to get hyperactive the rest of this month and all of Sept. I wouldnt be surprised to see 3 storms at once going before Sept 1st.

[barometerJane61]

Like others,I am taking this with a grain of salt when everything we've seen so far have been weak TS's that fizzle out.

[Stormcenter]

Like I said ROCK I have to see it to believe it.

Haven't we heard this song before?
After all it's very obvious this season is not following
the script at all. They way I undestood it we were going
to have storms forming left and right from the get go like 2005.
Well that hasn't been the case. Oh don't get me wrong I'm sure
we willl have activity ramp up the next few weeks and I expect
to see at least 2-3 big boys form in the next month but will they
survive or come close to U.S. mainland is the key. We shall see.

Dr Master's is right on with his take....you can see it in every long range model...We could be tracking 3 storms at one time next week...

SC, you have lost faith bro?.... look at the potential out there right now....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

true the year is starting out slow for 2nd week of August but those numbers 16+ are attainable as the season runs into Oct.....as far as US issues one just needs to look at some of the recent globals.....IMO the ALT is going to get hyperactive the rest of this month and all of Sept. I wouldnt be surprised to see 3 storms at once going before Sept 1st.

[CrazyC83]

My guess is the most active month this year will be October actually. I think this year will be prime for late activity, and even in November I think we might see a major hurricane.

[hurricaneCW]

My guess is the most active month this year will be October actually. I think this year will be prime for late activity, and even in November I think we might see a major hurricane.

People tend to say that when the hurricane season doesn't amount to much in the peak months of August and September. I highly doubt October will be the most active month this season. In fact, I think we'll only see 2 storms form in October this season. Considering the amount of ULL's and shear so far this season, those factors only increase from Late September onwards, so don't expect anything like 2005's October.

[CrazyC83]

My guess is the most active month this year will be October actually. I think this year will be prime for late activity, and even in November I think we might see a major hurricane.

People tend to say that when the hurricane season doesn't amount to much in the peak months of August and September. I highly doubt October will be the most active month this season. In fact, I think we'll only see 2 storms form in October this season. Considering the amount of ULL's and shear so far this season, those factors only increase from Late September onwards, so don't expect anything like 2005's October.

1998 and 2001 were both active late despite slow starts though.

[Macrocane]

I forgot about it, but in 1998 the 2nd storm formed until August 19 so I think that we still could have 14-16 storms this season.

[Stormcenter]

The good thing is by then the westerlies will have kicked in and cold fronts
will be heading south more often then not. If we are going have any major
hurricanes affect the U.S. mainland this season then it will be more then likely
be in September. IMO

My guess is the most active month this year will be October actually. I think this year will be prime for late activity, and even in November I think we might see a major hurricane.

[jlauderdal]

The tropical weather discussion yesterday at Crown Weather mentioned that going into September, the tropics may become very active with as many as 13 storms during the month.

so a storm is going to develop about every two days, is my math correct on that one? does that math add up for you folks, seriously?

[fwbbreeze]

The good thing is by then the westerlies will have kicked in and cold fronts
will be heading south more often then not. If we are going have any major
hurricanes affect the U.S. mainland this season then it will be more then likely
be in September. IMO

My guess is the most active month this year will be October actually. I think this year will be prime for late activity, and even in November I think we might see a major hurricane.

Opal in 95 was a pretty potent hurricane that affected mainland us in OCTOBER! I have been on this site a long time and I have never seen so much worthless speculation about the so called "bust" of a season.

[Nimbus]

The last two big storms to inundate the Tampa bay area of Florida were both in October, one in 1848 and another in 1921. By that time of the season the deep digging Texas fronts have turned thoughts to snow blowers but here on the west coast of Florida it is still a dangerous period over the long term. If the SST's stay high late this year we could see another Mitch or even a November storm.

[KWT]

The good thing is by then the westerlies will have kicked in and cold fronts
will be heading south more often then not. If we are going have any major
hurricanes affect the U.S. mainland this season then it will be more then likely
be in September. IMO

The stats are very interesting with that, I'd still be confident of there being some October/November activity, I'd imagine 3-4NS probably with a major hurricane in there (Given 81% of the Warm aMO La Ninas have had Majors.)

I'd say there is a 50-50 chance of a landfall hurricane in the US this season in October/November, the odds of there being a hurricane full stop is much higher...

Don't expect an early end, the 24 La Ninas since 1900s (there maybe some more then that were weak but so far back I don't trust the data) all have had some late season stuff.

[KWT]

so a storm is going to develop about every two days, is my math correct on that one? does that math add up for you folks, seriously?

Gosh I've already cleared that one up

Joe B said the long range ECM showed 13NS for the *rest of the season* I'm guessing crownweather got the wrong end of the stick with that one.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I could definately see a couple of storms (2-3 maybe even 4 under perfect condtions) forming in october going into november. But come on a hyperactive september, 8 or more storms I am not going to say 100% no because then it probably will happen , but like others have said I will have to see it to believe it.

[KWT]

8 storms is do able, 2002 did it and that was an El Nino year...2007 also managed 7 and very nearly 8 had Felix come about 12hrs later or so.

[Dean4Storms]

I think Dr. Masters is correct no matter the numbers of storms game you want to play the Tropics are about to bust loose, the models are hinting with every run and the next MJO phase could make it nuts out there.

Think about it, we've had 5 TC's to this point with the worse period from last half of August thru Sept and you could even argue into early Oct. still ahead of us. That is almost 2 full months during the peak period of TC activity with an MJO phase around the corner, record warm SST's, La Nina and models all trending toward a ramp up of waves coming off Africa and developing!!!

[Wx_Warrior]

Doesn't this sort of report come this time of year from someone?

[SootyTern]

The good thing is by then the westerlies will have kicked in and cold fronts
will be heading south more often then not. If we are going have any major
hurricanes affect the U.S. mainland this season then it will be more then likely
be in September.

Depends where you live. Last time my power was knocked out for a week or so by a hurricane it was OCT 24.
(which is a much nicer time to have no power than Aug or Sept I might add...)