Will the recurving pattern in Atlantic continue thru Sept?

[JtSmarts]

Excellent post again Mike. In my humble opinion 2004/2005 changed the expectations of those who love the excitement of a storm making landfall.
Since that period of time however only 2008 came close so when many forecasters started predicting a hyperactive season many were expecting a replica of 04/05.
What we seem to have now are a few "storm lovers" (not judging them or anything) that are really desperate to relive the excitement factor of 04/05 which were really exceptions rather than the rule.
I really believe that's why some posters have expressed somewhat anger at seeing a likely recurve for Dani and possibly Earl. Of course we live in an instant gratification society so people want what they want right now. Just my humble opinion though.

[somethingfunny]

Just looking at that 1995 map, I couldn't help but notice that between August 28 and September 26, only one storm formed. The climatological peak of what became one of the most active seasons on record, and Marilyn was all we had to show for four weeks!

[KWT]

Sorry but I have to chime in.

I honestly sense anger in these posts, and I don't understand it. Ridge/trough patterns don't last 8 weeks...September hasn't kicked in yet, and I am super worried about an active October and what that could mean for Florida and the northern Gulf coast.

I understand this is a discussion board, but geez what is with all of the fatalistic pangs of disappointment that Danielle may not make landfall?

The odds are good we will still see at least one more named storm before the month is over before we ever get to Sept/Oct. I don't think we should declare the winner of a basketball game based on which team scores first. It's maddening.

MW

The pattern is VERY established with it going for a solid month nearly non-stop and the thing is the hurricane are only help to keep the weakness wide open, the CFS has done an exceptionally good job this season with the pattern. The upper ridging looks pathetic in the long range models with the ECM showing no changes at all out to 10 days. The whole global pattern is actually very stale and I'm not seeing any real changes till at least the 10-15th September, by which time you only have a very short window for a CV threat.

Now as for you second point, personally I'm not dissapointed at all, cricky I've been calling for Danielle to recurve since the get-go, so if anything I'm happy its doing that if only to save myself face!

However your 3rd point is what will probably be the real threat for this season. I'm nearly certain we get a late season major hurricane in the Caribbean and the troughing pattern if it were to presist that long (I'm not sure it'll last quite that long, could revert to a blocking pattern by then in the SE states) it'd lift up a system into the Gulf....though I think the Yucatan is at bigger risk then Florida this Autumn given the upper high that has been present over the E.States....but I think for sure like 1995 the biggest threats to land come at the start and end of the season, most of the stronger stuff inbetween goes into fishland....but still only takes one to sneak through!

[gatorcane]

I see no end in sight with the pronounced troughiness across the Western Atlantic. I imagine there might be a spane of 5-7 days or so sometime in mid September will a solid ridge builds in but will there be any tropical systems at that time? This pattern is a continuation of what we have seen from last winter, where we saw trough after trough hit the Eastern CONUS and Western Atlantic, causing some of the coldest temperatures in 30 years for parts of Florida.

But keep in mind that typically the cutoff date for Cape Verde systems impacting the U.S is Sept. 20th. After that date, the number of Cape Verde systems that have impacted the CONUS drops of dramatically if you look at climatology. That is only about 3 weeks from now.

The window is closing..........

[tolakram]

I honestly sense anger in these posts, and I don't understand it.

You understand it alright, you're just being polite.

[Aquawind]

I honestly sense anger in these posts, and I don't understand it.

You understand it alright, you're just being polite.

It's the same ole.. people who have never or can't experience a real hurricane and/or don't own property are crying for landfalling threats and the drama it brings but, clueless on the reality of landfall. The hyped up season has added to the frustration imo.

[OuterBanker]

May this be the best fishing season ever

[wxman57]

With the persistent negative NAO that was predicted before the season started, we expected that most Cape Verde storms would recurve east of the U.S. and likely east of the Caribbean. That should continue. But as we now approach the heart of the season, we'll see development shifting farther westward into the Caribbean, SW Atlantic and Gulf. We won't be so lucky with the storms developing west of 55-60W.

[HurrMark]

With the persistent negative NAO that was predicted before the season started, we expected that most Cape Verde storms would recurve east of the U.S. and likely east of the Caribbean. That should continue. But as we now approach the heart of the season, we'll see development shifting farther westward into the Caribbean, SW Atlantic and Gulf. We won't be so lucky with the storms developing west of 55-60W.

If that is the case, it would be fortunate because that would (a) give less time for development before they run out of real estate and (b) the environment seems to be fairly favorable in the eastern-central Atlantic right now, so at least for the forseeable future, there is a good chance that many of these systems will already be developed by the time they hit the weakness.

I am starting to think that this season will be similar to 1995 in terms of track...except maybe even a few degrees to the east...the Florida panhandle and west coast of Florida might be the areas to watch this year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

For those who seek "excitement" try one of the hurricane rides at a museum...a few years back I went to MOSI in Tampa and went in the Gulf Coast Hurricane ride
which buffered me in winds of 75 mph. In Orlando, FL there is a skydiving simulator
that shoots out winds of 120 mph from below...that is a Category 3 Hurricane. Or one of my hardcore Motorcycle Friends experiences a Category 1 everytime time he gets on a freeway. One time he went nuts and took the speed up past Category 5 (185 mph) and he dared me to try it but I said No Thanks.--> This way there is no destruction and no one gets hurt

But please, don't go that fast on a motorcycle.

[ConvergenceZone]

With the persistent negative NAO that was predicted before the season started, we expected that most Cape Verde storms would recurve east of the U.S. and likely east of the Caribbean. That should continue. But as we now approach the heart of the season, we'll see development shifting farther westward into the Caribbean, SW Atlantic and Gulf. We won't be so lucky with the storms developing west of 55-60W.

If that is the case, it would be fortunate because that would (a) give less time for development before they run out of real estate and (b) the environment seems to be fairly favorable in the eastern-central Atlantic right now, so at least for the forseeable future, there is a good chance that many of these systems will already be developed by the time they hit the weakness.

I am starting to think that this season will be similar to 1995 in terms of track...except maybe even a few degrees to the east...the Florida panhandle and west coast of Florida might be the areas to watch this year.

That's not the case at all Mark. If you look through history, you'll find that there have been plenty of storms that have developed in the SW Atlantic and Carib that have turned out to be monsters...

[MGC]

Lets hope the NAO stays negative till late October then goes positive to keep the cold away.....MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm still not impressed with this being a really active season yet. I've seen other seasons in the past where there were 2 or 3 CV hurricanes moving out to sea at the same time. It's not a big deal. This doesn't seem out of the ordinary to me. Nor does it necessarily point to a really active season.

The dedicing factor will be, what will come after these 3? Will everything slowly die off? or will there be other Gulf and Carib storms......

[Patrick99]

Sure, we could have SW Atlantic or Caribbean development, but probably not if every single wave wants to develop straight off the coast of Africa.

And yeah, probably about 9 times out of 10, that's a recurve setup when they develop out in the east Atlantic. I wonder if that's going to persist the rest of the Cape Verde season......absolutely no meaningful SAL or shear out there to suppress these systems and allow for a more westward track?

[ConvergenceZone]

That's true Patrick99,
the favorable MJO pattern is only going to last so long...I imagine after Fiona that the Atlantic is going to go into a LULL for a couple of weeks. Then maybe at the end of September or in October, something may finally get going in the Carib or Gulf...

[RL3AO]

That's true Patrick99,
the favorable MJO pattern is only going to last so long...I imagine after Fiona that the Atlantic is going to go into a LULL for a couple of weeks. Then maybe at the end of September or in October, something may finally get going in the Carib or Gulf...

We're not in a favorable MJO right now. In fact we're in a neutral to negative MJO phase. It will become favorable in a week or so.

Actually the Eastern Atlantic is favorable right now (duh), but the Caribbean is unfavorable. Give it a week and the entire basin will be favorable.

[somethingfunny]

Recurver


Followed by a long-tracking landfaller


Recurver


Followed by a long-tracking landfaller


Recurver


Followed by a long-tracking landfaller


Recurver


Followed by a long-tracking landfaller


Recurver


Followed by a long-tracking landfaller


Recurvers




Followed by long-tracking landfallers



How long should I continue disproving the idea that we're going to have a recurving pattern this entire year?

[KWT]

Very interesting SF, it just shows how one could always slip through....

BUT the synoptics are going to have to change to get a US strike...a Caribbean threat, esp on the eastern islands is always a concern when you have lots of CV stuff going on but to get a strike anywhere on the states will need a pattern change, esp from the CV region it just won't happen because the pattern is just too troughy and progressive...for example Earl heads near due west gfetting to say 19/60...yet even then struggles to get past 70W simply because the weakness is too strong.

So yeah one could slip through, esp for the Eastern Caribbean islands, but a US hit needs a rather big synoptic change really.

With all that being said I do think there wil lbe a window between the 5-10th September, that was my punt back on 20th August, lets see how it plays out.

[HurrMark]

With the persistent negative NAO that was predicted before the season started, we expected that most Cape Verde storms would recurve east of the U.S. and likely east of the Caribbean. That should continue. But as we now approach the heart of the season, we'll see development shifting farther westward into the Caribbean, SW Atlantic and Gulf. We won't be so lucky with the storms developing west of 55-60W.

If that is the case, it would be fortunate because that would (a) give less time for development before they run out of real estate and (b) the environment seems to be fairly favorable in the eastern-central Atlantic right now, so at least for the forseeable future, there is a good chance that many of these systems will already be developed by the time they hit the weakness.

I am starting to think that this season will be similar to 1995 in terms of track...except maybe even a few degrees to the east...the Florida panhandle and west coast of Florida might be the areas to watch this year.

That's not the case at all Mark. If you look through history, you'll find that there have been plenty of storms that have developed in the SW Atlantic and Carib that have turned out to be monsters...

Well, I guess I do stand corrected on my first point. I was probably thinking more on the Gulf side, where most systems only have two to three days at the most before running aground. There have been a lot of storms developing in the western Atlantic and Caribbean that have become monsters. But with the weakness in place, it will be difficult for even a shallow system to be in a position that it could intensify and directly head for land.

[Tireman4]

I honestly sense anger in these posts, and I don't understand it.

You understand it alright, you're just being polite.

It's the same ole.. people who have never or can't experience a real hurricane and/or don't own property are crying for landfalling threats and the drama it brings but, clueless on the reality of landfall. The hyped up season has added to the frustration imo.

Oh Ike and Rita were loads of fun for me.