BOC (Is invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO=Up to 20%

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[Portastorm]

I have to think that energy and moisture from the tropical depression in the EPAC is going to help percolate this area in the next 48 hours. Going to be real interesting to watch.

[TexWx]

It seems that if anything should form, it's Mexico bound.

[Portastorm]

It seems that if anything should form, it's Mexico bound.

That is what the 0z GFS and Euro suggest. The NAM however keeps wanting to develop a surface low and even the 12z run takes it to 989 mb.

I know, I know ... it's the NAM.

[wxman57]

It seems that if anything should form, it's Mexico bound.

With high pressure to the north and northeast, that's nearly a certainty. Moving inland by late tomorrow. Pressures are rising at the BoC buoy. Cold front actually slipped south to the western BoC. Just a weak wave on the front for now. Could spin up into a minimal TS before it moves inland.

[dixiebreeze]

Possibly as a result from epac per NHC: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

[dixiebreeze]

NHC: SEVERAL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WOULD COME FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E OR A BRAND NEW
DEVELOPMENT.

[BigA]

It seems that if anything should form, it's Mexico bound.

With high pressure to the north and northeast, that's nearly a certainty. Moving inland by late tomorrow. Pressures are rising at the BoC buoy. Cold front actually slipped south to the western BoC. Just a weak wave on the front for now. Could spin up into a minimal TS before it moves inland.

Are the models that move it north and still have it over water in 72 hours just dead wrong, initializing it improperly and misreading the environmental conditions?

[cycloneye]

Maybe a invest shortly.

[cycloneye]

Dixie, I merged the topic you made at Active Storms forum with this one.

[wxman57]

Are the models that move it north and still have it over water in 72 hours just dead wrong, initializing it improperly and misreading the environmental conditions?

I don't know which models you're talking about. GFS, CMC, UKMET, ECMWF and NAM/WRF all bring it NNW and inland either Sunday or Monday.

[Sanibel]

Now the basin is "turned on" east to west. This disturbance isn't a 'naked' weak system but has plenty of EPAC "juice".

Too far west to have time over water.

[South Texas Storms]

is this an invest yet? it looks pretty good.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO=Up to 30%

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER
WATER. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[Migle]

This should be an invest at any time now.

[South Texas Storms]

18z nam has a strong tropical cyclone hitting s. texas in 72 hours.

[Migle]

18z nam has a strong tropical cyclone hitting s. texas in 72 hours.

Well, It's the nam. IF this does develop it probably won't be nothing more than the usual 40 mph Tropical Storm's that just take one more name off of the list. I am think Northern Mexico, probably won't get to South Texas.

[CrazyC83]

Should be 90L soon.

[RL3AO]

30% and no invest? Strange.

[pepeavilenho]

30% and no invest? Strange.

IMO the Pacific Depression is the problem of not being labeled as Invest.....

I think it will be soon