PGI41L. Coming off African coast (Now Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Wave about to emerge West Africa.

[gatorcane]

CV storms developing this year are much less likely to reach the U.S. than in other years. The reason is a persistent negative NAO and a resulting weaker Bermuda High. Once the CV storms stop developing, the development will shift west into the Caribbean, Gulf and off the SE U.S. coast.

I agree this is not the year cape verde systems are getting to the united states and Caribbean. The Bermuda High is so weak. Need to start looking at the western Caribbean and gulf for any type of threat to the u.s...soon those troughs are going to be too strong to allow cape verde systems to move west.

[Florida1118]

I agree. Unless they can hang low and stay weak and develop later (which wouldnt make them CV...) No US landfalls for us. Now as for the islands and Hispaniola they still have worries.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS

Wednesday


Friday

[Vortex]

It certainly would appear that while Africa will crank out a few more storms they should be of little consequence to the US. Most likely recurvature around 50w...Any serious threats will likely come from the western carribean in about a month...We should start to see the long range guidance develop system in and around that area much as they did 3-4 weeks out before the cape verde season. Some mighty high octane in the nw carribean...

[chrisjslucia]

No more Cape Verde storms? Hope you're right but Colin has posted news of two waves already today! I'm just a greenhorn,so can someone tell me what are the usual date ranges for CV storms?

[ColinDelia]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

Lots of info here Chris

[chrisjslucia]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

Lots of info here Chris

Thanks Colin, a few more weeks of disturbed sleep to go yet! From a selfish point of view, the history of hurricanes here in St Lucia and the Windwards is obviously dominated by CV storms. The idea of conditions sending them North at 50W is an attractive one for us and the Leewards.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

This seems a bit far out from the coast to be PG141L, but is this what you are talking about? What do you make of it? Thanks.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced





edit: replaced java with flash

[abajan]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

Lots of info here Chris

Thanks Colin, a few more weeks of disturbed sleep to go yet! From a selfish point of view, the history of hurricanes here in St Lucia and the Windwards is obviously dominated by CV storms. The idea of conditions sending them North at 50W is an attractive one for us and the Leewards.

Watch for any close low riders that might form around 10N 40W, though. Those are not necessarily considered CV systems and might pose a real threat to this region.

[bvigal]

Not wanting to make you worry, Chris. But truthfully, climatology is meaning little to me this season. All summer long we never had the usual Bermuda high, almost no ridging, just one TUTT after another from NE. New rainfall records in NE Caribbean, i.e. wettest June, July on record, or in many years, attest to the unusual season conditions. More recently we are having more high pressure to our north, pushing tropical disturbances due west. The way this year has gone so far, nothing would surprise me. But from our perspective in the East Caribbean, Abajan is correct. It doesn't matter where it starts, only if it comes here, and storms can form nearer the islands. I remember Lenny at Thanksgiving '99, moving backwards, Cat 4 over St. Martin. We had a storm here one year they call the Christmas hurricane. Only 2 years ago we had Omar mid-October, moving NE. Not much point losing sleep one way or the other, the likelihood is still very slim a hurricane will come right over you!

[Gustywind]

Not wanting to make you worry, Chris. But truthfully, climatology is meaning little to me this season. All summer long we never had the usual Bermuda high, almost no ridging, just one TUTT after another from NE. New rainfall records in NE Caribbean, i.e. wettest June, July on record, or in many years, attest to the unusual season conditions. More recently we are having more high pressure to our north, pushing tropical disturbances due west. The way this year has gone so far, nothing would surprise me. But from our perspective in the East Caribbean, Abajan is correct. It doesn't matter where it starts, only if it comes here, and storms can form nearer the islands. I remember Lenny at Thanksgiving '99, moving backwards, Cat 4 over St. Martin. We had a storm here one year they call the Christmas hurricane. Only 2 years ago we had Omar mid-October, moving NE. Not much point losing sleep one way or the other, the likelihood is still very slim a hurricane will come right over you!

Excellent reasoning, very good post couldn't be more agree with you! Don't let our guard down this season islanders is certainly the best way to keep in my mind that anything can happen for 2010!

[BigA]

Models are almost unanimous in developing this wave, likely into a hurricane. Should be a fish, but there's a chance that it could impact the Antilles, especially if the subtropical high gives it a southern component to its motion at some point, as some of the models indicate.

[WeatherGuesser]

I guess this is the topic?



What about the smaller blob out near 31W?

[Wx_Warrior]

0z cmc develops...several runs now.

[Ivanhater]

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HARLINGEN TEXAS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[WeatherGuesser]

Code: Select all

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

OK, that's the other little one I mentioned.

[Wx_Warrior]