Pouch PGI48L - Small area WSW of CV Islands - Code Yellow

[pepeavilenho]

Nice vorticity



And Euro develops this PRE-Invest
Leeward Islands

[punkyg]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

Yes Indeed. I can't seem to get the image to work so, I posted the link.

[Shuriken]

Slow movement west commencing; convection spreading; banding developing.

...looks like the real deal underway now. Probably TD first-light tomorrow.

[abajan]

Slow movement west commencing; convection spreading; banding developing.

...looks like the read deal underway now. Probably TD first-light tomorrow.

I should hope not!

[cycloneye]

Not bad looking.

[Aric Dunn]

watch near 45W tomorrow and tuseday..

[kohlejgreene]

watch near 45W tomorrow and tuseday..

This is true, i believe we should see more convection and vorticity 2maro

[Ptarmigan]

If it persists for the next couple days, should give it an Invest.

[dwsqos2]

Well, at least with this one, unlike the WCAR monsoon stuff, I don't have to check 850 mb temperatures and 1000-500 mb thicknesses on modeling to see if it will remain tropical.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A SMALL...SLOW-MOVING...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Blown Away]

Hey Luis, San Juan NWS commenting on this area?

[cycloneye]

Hey Luis, San Juan NWS commenting on this area?

Not yet.

[GCANE]

Nice turning on MIMIC-TPW


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

[LarryWx]

The 6z gfs takes this to within about 500 miles of Miami at 240 hours. This is definitely one to watch for next week since steering winds are progged to get this quite far to the west underneath persistent high pressure.

[Aric Dunn]

keep an eye on 45W .... the little vortex is not whats going to develop.. the vorticity continues to increase near 45W and convection is starting to build today as well.

[cycloneye]

Near 0%

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Aric Dunn]

Near 0%

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

yeah that never really has a chance... it will merge with the area to the west near 45W then we should see something slowly get together towards thursday.

[Shuriken]

That just means they don't expect it to develop within the next 48hrs, not that they don't expect it to develop ever.

It looks like it's going to merge with the larger area of weaker spin (but stronger convection, and under an anticyclone) to the southwest of it. A renewed trade wind surge coming off Africa should roll it up nice tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

That just means they don't expect it to develop within the next 48hrs, not that they don't expect it to develop ever.

It looks like it's going to merge with the larger area of weaker spin (but stronger convection, and under an anticyclone) to the southwest of it. A renewed trade wind surge coming off Africa should roll it up nice tomorrow.

Yes around 45 W ..