2011 Steering Pattern/Early indicators

[Ivanhater]

SST's are on the rise after being in the 70's and 80's for over 2 weeks.

[vbhoutex]

Interesting is the fact that you can see the loop current already beginning to set up. I haven't checked our water temps lately, but they have to be back into the 50s at least by now with our early warm weather. They were in the 40's early this month.

[wxman57]

SSTs near shore are actually up into the mid and even upper 60s now. Warming fast:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml

[Blown Away]

Not seeing the warming in the N Atlantic so far like we did in 2010. Maybe we see a stronger Bermuda High this season and more systems making it farther west.

[cycloneye]

Not seeing the warming in the N Atlantic so far like we did in 2010. Maybe we see a stronger Bermuda High this season and more systems making it farther west.

It continues to be warm in the N Atlantic,but not as hot as it was a few weeks ago.See below graphic.



Look how hot it was in January and mid Febuary.

Atlantic sst's and anomalies thread

[Ivanhater]

Wow Luis...Most of the Gulf is actually ABOVE average now. Even after the extreme cold winter, the last few weeks have been way above normal and the Gulf responded. Amazing...

[Weatherfreak000]

Overall though, Ivan, the weather wasn't too impressive. We had some nice polar air masses come down but nothing too significant...besides you can expect cold fronts during the winter. Temps are definitely not going to be going down anytime soon where im at with all that high pressure set in....and the SST's are gonna be doing nothing but going up.


I would say yes the early season indicators are pretty foreboding for the GOM. IMO this may be that random season where we get a nice and halfway sheared early season storm in the gulf, maybe late May.

[Ivanhater]

As we head through March, the rise in water temps will continue...

[StormClouds63]

Cindy will be an early to mid-August storm to remember ... just a hunch.

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow...unbelievable. We have finally seen and passed Katrina from where I am at. A new K storm will come and go and God willing, we can finally put that nightmare to rest.

[Ivanhater]

Up to March 3, Gulf warming up fast from bottom to top. Yellow's starting to take control of the southern Gulf.

[wxman57]

I think Phil Klotzbach will lower his prediction by 1, down to 16. And possibly lower it again by the start of the season. New Euro forecast is for higher pressures in the Atlantic, indicating a stronger Bermuda High. That means greater low-level wind shear (not strong, just greater). Actually, very similar to 2008. Fewer storms than 2010 but a greater landfall risk due to the more westerly movement (stronger Bermuda High).

I'm leaning toward 14-15 named storms this season (down from 19 in 2010). Analog years suggest an increased risk to TX/LA and the Carolinas. Greatest risk would be to the islands of the NE Caribbean.

Euro forecast for July-September 2011 Just Issued:


Same forecast from March 2010:

[Ivanhater]

Very ominous signs. Sure, the numbers may be lower than last year but a higher threat to the U.S this year trumps higher numbers.

[dizzyfish]

Very ominous signs. Sure, the numbers may be lower than last year but a higher threat to the U.S this year trumps higher numbers.

Agree 100%. Hopefully when the media mentions the lower numbers they also mention the threat so folks don't get all happy and let their guard down.

[cycloneye]

Greatest risk would be to the islands of the NE Caribbean.

57,that is what I am most worried about,not how many but where those which form go,especially,as I sit in a high risk area every season.

[NDG]

I agree with wxman57, I only see the CSU team lowering their forecast coming out next month by just one or two at the most, unless by May ensembles start showing a definete weak El Nino developing by the heart or the end of the Hurricane season.
I have gone back to the last 16 years, even by taking out the super hyper active year of '05 out of the equation, neutral ENSO years has averaged 15 named storms, 8.5 hurricanes and 4.5 major hurricanes with more landfalling storms that La Nina years.

[wxman57]

Greatest risk would be to the islands of the NE Caribbean.

57,that is what I am most worried about,not how many but where those which form go,especially,as I sit in a high risk area every season.

Yes you do, Luis. Fortunately, you're a relatively small target as far as receiving a direct hit.

[South Texas Storms]

wxman57 can I please have the link to the ECMWF seasonal forecast of MSLP that you posted a few posts above?

[wxman57]

wxman57 can I please have the link to the ECMWF seasonal forecast of MSLP that you posted a few posts above?

It's on the main EC website, though you have to dig way down to get to the seasonal maps:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... _forecast/

Choose either the maps or "Nino Plumes" forecasts on that link above. Below is the direct link to the March 2011 SLP anomaly forecast map that I posted:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0summary!/

[Rainband]

Greatest risk would be to the islands of the NE Caribbean.

57,that is what I am most worried about,not how many but where those which form go,especially,as I sit in a high risk area every season.

Yes you do, Luis. Fortunately, you're a relatively small target as far as receiving a direct hit.

how does the west coast of florida look at this point?