So far...

[dwsqos2]

And why do people insist on using 2006 as the classic example of a bad seasonal forecast? The bigger bomb was 2007. At least in 2006 Gray and Klotzbach slashed numbers in the September update. In 2007, the Sept. update ACE and NTSC forecasts were 148 and 162 units respectively; 68 units of ACE and 94 NTSC units verified. Yeah, I would say that was the real bomb not 2006.

[Frank2]

Many misread this topic - perhaps to reread it would help...

It was not about the season being a bust, since it's only June and to say that now wouldn't make sense, but was about the fact that the later the season starts, the higher the chance that the annual totals will be less - that's just common sense, folks...

And, it was about the annual forecast itself - TWC has learned that real-time forecasting works much better, per this year's tornado season coverage...

Frank2

[wxman57]

I agree, Frank, that there is very little value in a seasonal forecast of numbers of named storms, hurricanes and intense hurricanes. The reason is that there is very little connection between the number of named storms in a season and the chances of a major impact in any one area. We've seen quite a few seasons with less than average named storms but with major impacts (1957 - Audrey, 1965 - Betsy, 1992 - Andrew, 1983 - Alicia, etc.). And we've seen some very active seasons with little or no U.S. impacts, as was the case in 2010.

What we need to try to do is to predict seasonal track patterns. If we can predict the general flow patterns of the coming season, then we can better predict which areas may have a higher impact risk. Last year, for example, we could saw a persistent strong negative NAO going into the spring, and the Euro was forecasting a relatively weak Bermuda High but with high pressure over the NW Gulf Coast during peak season. That pointed to many storms recurving east of the Caribbean and the U.S. and a greater risk to Mexico.

This year, the Euro is predicting a stronger Bermuda High and lower pressures across the NW Gulf from July-October. That may translate into an increased risk to the northern Caribbean Islands, Bahamas and the Southeast U.S. as well as the NW Gulf coast. It doesn't mean every storm will threaten those areas, but the risk of landfall may be higher in those areas.

Numbers-wise, the later start makes it more likely we'll see around 13-15 named storms vs. 16 or higher, but the greater risk of U.S. landfall remains.

[vbhoutex]

Ladies and Gentlemen, this topic is on watch by staff and is on very thin ice. Either keep the discussion to the actual subject or it will be pulled and appropriate actions deemed necessary by the staff will be taken. No more I said, he said, no more he violated the rules, just discuss the subject. First and last warning.

[Ptarmigan]

There were many people who correctly anticipated the arrival of warm ENSO conditions in 2006. I don't think any god had anything to do with El Nino's arrival.

I think we should all stick our heads in the sand and make no effort whatsoever to improve seasonal forecasting. Really, this is a dumb argument. Using this logic we would still have 1000 mile errors for three-day track forecasts.

It was good to see El Nino in 2006 because we had a serious drought that time.

[SouthFloridawx]

you can generally sleep through june, july and november. they're frequently almost meaningless. I'm in the Depeche Mode zone of "enjoy the silence" right now. Whatever shortcomings seasonal forecasting has... i agree with those calling for an active season. my guess is we jam in the heart of the season with not much if anything happening before August. it's often that way.

Come on man, why don't you "reach out and touch faith". ; )

[Frank2]

wxman57,

Thanks for your comments - they were appreciated, and I agree the overall pattern is different this year than the past one or two, and might cause problems as the active part of the season approaches...


Frank

[MGC]

Yes, much more liberal naming. As I've been saying for years....more named systems equals more money from Congress!.......MGC

[Scorpion]

I could care less about what happens in June or July. It would not surprise me to see our first named storm until mid-late July, and I still think we will have a fairly active season. Prior to that, I'm not gonna obsess about every thunderstorm or tropical wave out there.

[Category 5]

It is indeed common sense that a slower start means smaller numbers, but let's not be lulled into thinking that this will be the case, remember how last season picked up rapidly starting with Danielle? (After the season looked dead as a doornail). Remember 2004?

Every season is different. One slight pattern change and the entire complexion of a season can be turned upside down, could happen tomorrow, could happen in August, hell for all we know we could go stormless. We just don't know, that unknown is what keeps us hooked on this every year. We have no control over it, so just sit back and enjoy whatever we get.

[gilbert88]

This heat and drought reminds me a lot of 2004. I have a hunch it will be relatively short but still violent season. After Alex, I'm officially sick of tropical storms and wouldn't mind not being in one for the rest of my life. :/

[Ptarmigan]

It is indeed common sense that a slower start means smaller numbers, but let's not be lulled into thinking that this will be the case, remember how last season picked up rapidly starting with Danielle? (After the season looked dead as a doornail). Remember 2004?

Every season is different. One slight pattern change and the entire complexion of a season can be turned upside down, could happen tomorrow, could happen in August, hell for all we know we could go stormless. We just don't know, that unknown is what keeps us hooked on this every year. We have no control over it, so just sit back and enjoy whatever we get.

Exactly. A slow start gives people a sense of false safety and leads to complacency. Some active seasons were late starters like 1969, 1998, and 2004 and were all deadly and devastating season.

[gulf701]

As a volunteer fire chief on the Gulf coast not too far South from Ivanhater, I use the various forecast as preparation tool. It is not the exact numbers that I am looking at, but the numbers should be used as a summary of the various climate components that influence development of a tropical system. With our beloved country in economic woes, the number and severity of the impacts equates to less resources that are available. And if you are a low population area like we are, you can anticipate that you will be a lower priority unless you receive extreme damage. So regardless if you are in private or public sectors, you better be prepared and plan to take care of yourself for an extended period beyond the so called three days.

[TYNI]

It is indeed common sense that a slower start means smaller numbers, but let's not be lulled into thinking that this will be the case, remember how last season picked up rapidly starting with Danielle? (After the season looked dead as a doornail). Remember 2004?

Every season is different. One slight pattern change and the entire complexion of a season can be turned upside down, could happen tomorrow, could happen in August, hell for all we know we could go stormless. We just don't know, that unknown is what keeps us hooked on this every year. We have no control over it, so just sit back and enjoy whatever we get.

Exactly. A slow start gives people a sense of false safety and leads to complacency. Some active seasons were late starters like 1969, 1998, and 2004 and were all deadly and devastating season.

I recall 2004, as my wife and I took the kids to Florida the last 2 weeks of August. Alex (I believe), didn't arrive until July 31. We landed in Orlando the day after Charlie left, and we left Florida 2.5 weeks later on one of the last flights out before Frances. That was a busy year.

[ConvergenceZone]

and the thing is, you NEVER know what you are going to get with a slow start to a season. This season may get going like crazy, OR this may be an extremely slow and low activity year. There's absolutely no way of knowing for sure, which is why I guess we all love the weather .


Last year it was an extremely busy year as far as the quantity of developed storms is concerned, but it was an extremely dead year relating to landfalling storms...

I just don't see the USA getting that lucky 2 years in a row....

[jinftl]

Interesting discussion from Dr. Jeff Masters regarding June-July activity as a harbinger of the rest of the season:

"Dr. Chris Landsea notes in his excellent Hurricane FAQ that "the overall number of named storms (hurricanes) occurring in June and July (JJ) correlates at an insignificant r = +0.13 (+0.02) versus the whole season activity. In fact, there is a slight negative relationship between early season storms (hurricanes) versus late season (August through November) r = -0.28 (-0.35). Thus, the overall early season activity, be it very active or quite calm, has little bearing on the season as a whole."

Indeed, although four named storms formed by July 7 in 1959, the season turned out to be an ordinary one, with 11 named storms (which is average) and 7 hurricanes (one more than average). However, storms forming early in the season out in the area Dennis formed (south of 22 North Latitude and east of 78 West Longitude) are very often a harbinger of an active hurricane season. For example, take a look at 1933, when a record 21 named storms and 10 hurricanes formed, with four of the five June and July storms forming in this area."
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... 5&month=07

[psyclone]

good point re early season activity. if something forms in the deep tropics early, look out. otherwise it probably doesn't mean much. if my shaky memory serves me, didn't 1997 feature a good burst of early action before that season crapped out?

[hurricanetrack]

Yes, Ana, Bill, Claudette and Danny. All non-tropical origins if I remember correctly. Only Erika in September was born of true tropical wave energy. Super El Nino kicked in and rolled that season up.

[plasticup]

What we need to try to do is to predict seasonal track patterns. If we can predict the general flow patterns of the coming season, then we can better predict which areas may have a higher impact risk. Last year, for example, we could saw a persistent strong negative NAO going into the spring, and the Euro was forecasting a relatively weak Bermuda High but with high pressure over the NW Gulf Coast during peak season. That pointed to many storms recurving east of the Caribbean and the U.S. and a greater risk to Mexico.

This year, the Euro is predicting a stronger Bermuda High and lower pressures across the NW Gulf from July-October. That may translate into an increased risk to the northern Caribbean Islands, Bahamas and the Southeast U.S. as well as the NW Gulf coast. It doesn't mean every storm will threaten those areas, but the risk of landfall may be higher in those areas.

If this could be done with even moderate reliability, insurance and reinsurance companies would pay a fortune for it. Right now they rely heavily on the crude seasonal predictions, but that often says little about the impact on their specific markets. Consider, for example, last year. It was a very active season, but the US was barely touched. If someone could have predicted that they would be a billionaire.

[Frank2]

5 TS's all fairly weak - so above normal on the number of named systems, but perhaps below normal on the intensity...

If the Texas high continues through September, that could mean the troughiness in the western Atlantic would continue, too...

Of course we are just entering the CV portion of the season, and it appears to be about normal per what we are seeing come off Africa, so we'll have to wait and see what happens (and I hate waiting - lol)...

Frank