Season Cancel!

[HouTXmetro]

Thanks for your responses! I'm getting sort of restless waiting track something.....Does the current set up with High for the most part large and in charge mean that most storms will likely either hit MX/Central America or skirt up the East Coast? The reason I ask because High pressure has dominated the Gulf Coast and usually when their is a storm they tend to just "Pump the Ridge"

[LarryWx]

Calls for "season cancel" this early, when the season to date has been near average, is laughable imho. Of course, this thread appears to be a joke, regardless.

[Stephanie]

Calls for "season cancel" this early, when the season to date has been near average, is laughable imho. Of course, this thread appears to be a joke, regardless.

It is a joke on many fronts.

HoutTXmetro - if you're looking for rain in your neck of the woods, then I hope a tropical system provides you with it, without serious flooding or damaging rains. If you are looking for a couple of Cat 5's knocking on your door and calling the season a dud because none have flaired up yet, then this is not the thread or site for you.

[KWT]

Well we are back above average with Bret, a little unexpected but Juy proves to be a month that indeed does have tropical development.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I'm betting we'll see more out of this month before it is over, with not only local brew, but cape verde origination too.

[petit_bois]

history says we still have a month or so until the "season" gets into full gear. All is well on the western front thus far.

[Category 5]

We're 2 ahead of 2004's pace.

[vbhoutex]

I'm betting we'll see more out of this month before it is over, with not only local brew, but cape verde origination too.

SSSSHHHHH!!!!!! They'll hear you!!

[Texas Snowman]

Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne.

Aug. 13 to Sept. 26.

Florida.

I know this is a joke thread, but a one month period can turn a hurricane season from a non-event into a season talked about for the next 100 years.

[KWT]

We're 2 ahead of 2004's pace.

Make that 3!

Amazing how just 96hrs can make such a big difference when it comes to numbers...we've gone from average to well above!

Back on par with 1995...ahead of 2004, 1969, 1998, 1999, 1955, 2010...etc!

[dwsqos2]

To be fair we're matching the pace of 2006 as well; yes, yes I know very different ENSO state. But until the MDR starts producing, I will remain pessimistic.

[NDG]

To be fair we're matching the pace of 2006 as well; yes, yes I know very different ENSO state. But until the MDR starts producing, I will remain pessimistic.

Besides ENSO being way different, at this time of the year in 2006 we saw a coold down fo the SSTs in the Tropical Atlantic's MDR, indication that it was very hostile thanks to a strong Azore's surface high. We have not seen that cool down in the MDR this year, conditions are not that hostile as in 2006.
Why can't you compare this year to last year's busy Atlantic's MDR when last year the MDR did not really start producing until mid to late August?
If we were in late August already I would had said you got a point, but not yet.

[Stormcenter]

It seems as though if anything shows any type of circulation it's given a name these days unlike in past seasons so I don't put much if any weight on the number of names systems. It's the quality and not the quantity of storms that matters most. IMO

[gigabite]

It seems as though if anything shows any type of circulation it's given a name these days unlike in past seasons so I don't put much if any weight on the number of names systems. It's the quality and not the quantity of storms that matters most. IMO

I understand your point. I may have to put a technology multiplier on my formula.

There are two major technological improvements since 2006. One was a post processing capability that improves the detection of cloud layers on split cells, and the other was the quadrupling of the infrared resolution. The improvements help detect tropical features earlier, some features that are imbedded in the trailing edge of frontal systems, but hidden from previous GOES versions, and get ready for more improvements GOES “O” is scheduled to launch in the fall.

[KWT]

To be fair we're matching the pace of 2006 as well; yes, yes I know very different ENSO state. But until the MDR starts producing, I will remain pessimistic.

Besides ENSO being way different, at this time of the year in 2006 we saw a coold down fo the SSTs in the Tropical Atlantic's MDR, indication that it was very hostile thanks to a strong Azore's surface high. We have not seen that cool down in the MDR this year, conditions are not that hostile as in 2006.
.

The conditions between now and 2006 are so different its a joke to even try and compare...El nino was forming in 2006 at this stage, if anything in 2011 we are slipping back closer to La Nina...2006 started off warm in the SSt's but cooled through the season...2011 is only cooler than 2005 and 2010 in recent times, I believe its comparable to most top end hyperactive years in terms of numbers...pressure is WAY below average in the Atlantic and is very similar to 2010 in that respect, another factor that was different to 2006.

The numbers may be similar but that is all...we'll probably have something close to double the ACE for the season and probably a solid 5-8NS more...

Also lets look at the top 10 busiest seasons in terms of ACE and see whether they had a TS form south of 20N in the MDR zone...

2005: Yes
1950: No
1995: Yes
2004: No
1961: Yes (Anna JUST about counts)
1955: No
1998: No
1999: No
2003: No
1964: Maybe (depends on whether you count TS2 as it did become a TD in the MDR....but become TS outside.)

So actually its more common for the MDR NOT to develop something in top end seasons. If we still have nothing from there by the end of August, then your point becomes very vaild indeed.

[dwsqos2]

1998 had Alex; it formed on the 27th of July. 1996 had Bertha. 2003 had TD2 and Claudette (Claudette was not east of the Lesser Antilles; I tend to be most interested in those, but still MDR development in July.).

1999 did not.
2004 did not.
2010 almost had MDR development with short-lived Bonnie, but not really.

1989 had July MDR development and an incredibly respectable 137 units of ACE by -AMO standards (actually the Atlantic wasn't all that cold that year). 1990 and 1979 did as well; ACE for those seasons was 91, which is a high value for the -AMO period.

1988, 1980, 1981, and 1985 did not and all produced repectable seasonal ACE's ranging from a bit less than 90 to 147.

I can't say I really care about years prior to 1978. I don't trust season storm counts prior to relatively consistent satellite coverage. And, I really don't trust ACE counts from that period. I suspect that, while they will probably go down as hyperactive seasons, 1950s, 1961s, and 1955s ACE totals will be slashed significantly once they're reanalyzed. Some personal research indicates that many of the notable storms from those years had pretty comically badly overestimated intensities for extended periods of time.

Comically 1997 had July MDR development counting TD5, but most seasons during which the deep tropical Atlantic, particularly the area east of 60W and south of 20N, produced in July also tended to produce healthy seasonal ACEs (2005, 2008, 1995, 2003, 1998, 1996, etc.) It's really just persistence. Since long wave patterns are more stable in the summer months (amplitude is lower), if it's favorable enough for TCs in June and July in the deep tropics then it tends to still be favorable in August and early to mid Sept. I would be more confident in big ACE totals for this season if it were the deep tropical latitudes producing and not the subtropics. That is all.

[KWT]

Fair enough. I still would be willing to bet a plus 140 ACe at the end of the season based on all the features I've seen, the long range models are bullish about this season with regards to the background conditions, if anything its very close to 2010 except might get going a touch earlier due to the lack of La Nina...though on the otherhand doubt it'd be quite as explosive as that year...

As for 50/55, your certainly rigt, but they will 100% still be hyper seasons, even if those seasons lose 20-30 units (1950 could even lose a little more!) which is more than possible they will still solidly be in the hyper zone, esp 1950. 1961 will also lose some but probably not as much, Esther looks overdone to me, esp when it got further north, Betsy and Frances maybe a little on the high side as well but don't think that will see a big drop.

1989 was as you say actually quite a warm Atlantic compared to the -AMO years, in fact it was pretty compareable to at least the late 90s years.

Anyway we will see, I'll wager a +140 ACE after all is said and done...

[HurricaneWarning92]

We are entering the peak months of the season. (August-October). September 10th is the pinnacle of the season. We are on the third storm already which means we are well ahead. Be patient.

[KWT]

I suspect this season is going down the 64/98/99/10 route of some weak activity before 20th August then it blows up and we get quite alot of storms form and probably a fair few hurricanes as well.

Still see nothing to deter me from a fairly decent number (maybe 15-17NS) of systems and a pretty high ACE (140+)...whether or not it makes it to hyperactive though is a totally different question!

[ConvergenceZone]

I suspect this season is going down the 64/98/99/10 route of some weak activity before 20th August then it blows up and we get quite alot of storms form and probably a fair few hurricanes as well.

Still see nothing to deter me from a fairly decent number (maybe 15-17NS) of systems and a pretty high ACE (140+)...whether or not it makes it to hyperactive though is a totally different question!

Good post KWT. In 2 to 3 weeks, we should see a significant ramp up in tropical activity....