Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)
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It has to be in an area of already low ambient background pressures, otherwise thats a pretty impressive low, and you can see why the ECM has been quite gung ho despite the dry air.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Gustywind
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Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands
cycloneye wrote:This is the 18z surface analysis and the low pressure goes down to 1008 mbs.
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Oh damn
that's a a nice climb from 1012 to 1008 hpa at a pretty low latitude close to 9 or 10°N and 35 W given what my untrained eyes are seeing. Notice the 1004 low pressure on Africa... things are maybe begin to heating up, but let's wait and see.
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Ivanhater
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Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands
Thanks Luis for alerting me on this...that is one impressive low pressure
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Michael
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cycloneye
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Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands
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Cool looking system but totally lacking in convection. Another one that had it been a month later would probably be a TS already...given both 90L and this one is really looking good, I think that is rather suggestive of another big CV season IMO...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
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Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands
For a second run in a row,GFS once again shows this pouch.
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cycloneye
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Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands
8 PM TWD:
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 15N27W TO
8N30W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N30W. THE SYSTEM IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION
IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF THE WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 15N27W TO
8N30W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N30W. THE SYSTEM IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION
IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF THE WAVE.
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plasticup
Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands
This definitely looks promising. I love CV storms, and apparently so do the models! Except NOGAPS, which buries this thing 
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands
JB: "System at 10 north and 30 west may post problems to ne Caribbean by Monday"
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cycloneye
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Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands
850 mb vorticity is superb.
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Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands
that is one tight circulation though got some SAL to the north and in front....development likely when it gets to the carib.....Luis I would keep my eye on this one....
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cycloneye
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Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands
The shear wont be a big problem if it stays below 15n.As you said ROCK,the dry air is the biggest hurdle.
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Florida1118
Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands
A system justs forms and Emily is on the horizon. I wonder if seasonal forcasts will be bumped up any...
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plasticup
Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands
Florida1118 wrote:A system justs forms and Emily is on the horizon. I wonder if seasonal forcasts will be bumped up any...
Doubt it. We are getting to that time of year when every wave has a good shot. Remember, just two weeks ago people were asking if this season was a bust!
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Folks,
This one of any this year has my attention. I think it's a prime candidate to become the next TC and at this point all indications are this is westbound for some time. In fact, none of the long range guidance indicates recurvature..It also maintains and excellent presentation and envelope this evening...As it pases 50W there should be a marked increase in convection...The forecasted synoptics should move it into portions of the leeward islands by Sunday...Interesting days ahead...
This one of any this year has my attention. I think it's a prime candidate to become the next TC and at this point all indications are this is westbound for some time. In fact, none of the long range guidance indicates recurvature..It also maintains and excellent presentation and envelope this evening...As it pases 50W there should be a marked increase in convection...The forecasted synoptics should move it into portions of the leeward islands by Sunday...Interesting days ahead...
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cycloneye
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Re: Pouch PO10L SW of CV islands
The 00z surface analysis by TAFB continues to show the low pressure.
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Uploaded by imageshack.us
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Rgv20
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Did a quick check of the models (been preoccupied with Don), this is the best candidate for 91L and it looks like it will be knocking on the Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday evening or Monday.
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HurricaneWarning92
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could this feature head north of the islands or just brush them or is it too early to tell?
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