WHY has there only been two hurricanes so far?

[LarryWx]

Patience, we are just past half way! Maria will likely making hurricane status and IMO we will see 4 more canes and 2 will be major before the end.

one comical bad sign is its the peak of the season and JB has quit tweeting about the tropics. he is talking about the cold weather coming. i feel the record breaking cold on the way will decide the rest of the season. if the high bringing the cold locks in over the NW ATL and doesnt budge through oct then interesting storms will develop. if however, this high just moves out followed by yet another east coast trough, the season will come to an early end save a few more slop storms.

I noticed this, myself. Not very JBlike. However, yesterday he did tweet about a possible development the week of 9/18-24, with which I largely agree is quite possible:

"Sloppy Maria will miss the US, Watch area south of 30 north, west of 70 west, east of 85 west for problems week of 18th"

[ConvergenceZone]

Patience, we are just past half way! Maria will likely making hurricane status and IMO we will see 4 more canes and 2 will be major before the end.

one comical bad sign is its the peak of the season and JB has quit tweeting about the tropics. he is talking about the cold weather coming. i feel the record breaking cold on the way will decide the rest of the season. if the high bringing the cold locks in over the NW ATL and doesnt budge through oct then interesting storms will develop. if however, this high just moves out followed by yet another east coast trough, the season will come to an early end save a few more slop storms.

I noticed this, myself. Not very JBlike. However, yesterday he did tweet about a possible development the week of 9/18-24, with which I largely agree is quite possible:

"Sloppy Maria will miss the US, Watch area south of 30 north, west of 70 west, east of 85 west for problems week of 18th"

Yea, and just 2 weeks ago JB was tweeting about how the USA better get ready for a bunch of
storms, and this is exactly why I never take JB seriously. I like him for entertainment,
but not as a tropical expert. I'd rather listen to the METs we have here at the forum for that,
because they don't overhype everything.

[rainstorm]

the mets here are quite good.

[rainstorm]

yea, after lee and katia he said the US would be threatened 3-5 more times. with nothing on the horizon his forecast has no chance. he must not recognize the pattern. of course, almost all forecasters were saying quality over quantity this season. it was just the opposite.

[northjaxpro]

We are about average right now in terms of number of hurricanes. Just compare it to what the average is at this time of year (the climatological peak of hurricane season) and last year and this year doesn't seem all that odd. The other thing to note is like you wrote, various tropical storms this season had the chance to become a hurricane (Arlene, Emily, Gert, Harvey, Maria?, Nate?) but choose not to .

You can add Bret to that list also. Bret at one point got to 65 mph and even looked to be developing an eyewall briefly until it maxed out.

[beoumont]

WHY has there only been two hurricanes so far?

Simply because only two storms have had sustained winds of 64 knots or greater.

Nothing more, nothing less.

[somethingfunny]

The real question ought to be, why have we had so many marginal systems in marginal environments reach tropical storm strength?

[WeatherGuesser]

this is exactly why I never take JB seriously.

Yet people keep going on about the pay-for-play web poster. Stop, and maybe he'll go away.

Will there be more? Well, we had 3 or 4 going at one time a few days ago, and now there is only one that most people seem to have dropped following. Is there even anything else forming now? The upper midwest is going cold early; frost and freeze warnings up for certain places. Did that happen in '05? Does it matter? Is there any indication the Atlantic is cooling down?

We've really only had one landfall this year and some claim that was only as a TS while others say H1. Yet it did as much or more damage than some of the stronger storms of earlier years. Then Lee came in and wandered across at least a dozen states causing all kinds of problems.

Do we really need any more?