2011 TCRs

[CrazyC83]

Season is now 18/7/3 due to the upgrade. Note the ratio would be less pronounced if the pre-Irene storms were excluded (10/7/3).

[Macrocane]

I did not see that one coming, good for you 2011 hurricane season! I think Sean could be upgraded too as it seemed to have pekaed before the arrival of the hurricane hunters.

[CrazyC83]

:eek: I did not see that one coming, good for you 2011 hurricane season! I think Sean could be upgraded too as it seemed to have pekaed before the arrival of the hurricane hunters.

I don't think it peaked high enough before then, it was a long way below hurricane status when they arrived. Maybe 60 kt but that is it. Some may also suspect Rina may have been a major hurricane briefly but I doubt it (95 kt seems right, it was well covered by Recon and there was no real peak during the gaps).

[wxman57]

I think Rina was probably a Cat 3. And it's possible Sean was briefly a hurricane. But without any data to support an upgrade on Sean, they'll likely leave it as a TS.

[Cainer]

Harvey's report is out!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082011_Harvey.pdf

Winds bumped up to 65 MPH, and became a TS again over the GOM for 12 hours.

[Cainer]

The unnamed TS from early September's report was also released today.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/ALXX2011_Unnamed.pdf

Peak intensity of 45 MPH and 1002 mbar.

[brunota2003]

The unnamed TS from early September's report was also released today.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/ALXX2011_Unnamed.pdf

Peak intensity of 45 MPH and 1002 mbar.

Just saw that, but you beat me to it! Interesting read, at the least.

[CrazyC83]

Notice they have ALXX as the indicator, not AL13 (what it should be, would require an update to Nate) or some other number.

[Cainer]

Arlene's report was released today. No changes made to intensity.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL012011_Arlene.pdf

[CrazyC83]

I would have bumped Arlene to 60 kt, based on the strengthening on radar after Recon left, the ADT increase and the lowering of the pressure. I'd have set the lowest pressure at 991mb as well on that surface data assuming it was not dead calm at the time.

[Cainer]

Ophelia's report hot off the presses, no major changes made.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL162011_Ophelia.pdf

[CrazyC83]

Everything seems about right with Ophelia, but I would say the peak intensity might be a bit more uncertain. At 35N or so, you would expect some baroclinic forcing to increase winds, but also the possibility they may not mix down as much. The pressure might be a bit on the conservative side as well based on 120 kt at that latitude - I would guess in the low to mid 930s. However, at the same time, I would not be surprised if it wasn't as strong as suggested, like perhaps 105-110 kt. Without Recon, we'll never know.

[CrazyC83]

On FB, a post mentioned the Irene TCR is well underway and being written by Avila. That one has an awful lot of data though so it could take a while.

[Cainer]

Bret is out! Upped to 60 KT and 995 mbar.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022011_Bret.pdf

[CrazyC83]

The BT (KMZ version) of Irene is out - It was NOT a hurricane when it made the NJ landfall (not really that surprising).

Landfall intensities 75, 60 and 55 with pressures of 952, 959 and 965 (IMO it should be 80, 60 and 60 with pressures of 950, 959 and 962 - the 60 kt landfall at NYC is based on surface data in eastern Long Island and Rhode Island near 55 kt with the likelihood of stronger winds elsewhere not sampled - sustained winds in NYC proper were likely only low-end TS force, and the 80 kt NC estimate based on the Cedar Island Ferry report, assuming it caught the highest winds as nothing else supports a high intensity). The last data support hurricane intensity in Irene was around 28/0400Z with a 66 kt SFMR measurement well east of Maryland.

Puerto Rico looks to be going down at 65 kt.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/archive_bes ... =Hurricane IRENE

[CrazyC83]

Lee TCR is out.

The ACE is coming down greatly - most of its lifespan it was a subtropical storm (and not a tropical storm). Damage estimates still uncertain - insured total is $315M (would support $630M) but it excludes damage from the National Flood Insurance Program, and most of the damage was due to flooding and not privately insured.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132011_Lee.pdf

[brunota2003]

Just so y'all know, Irene's report is coming out later today at some point...keep your eyes peeled!

From yesterday:

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
NHC has completed its Tropical Cyclone Report for Tropical Storm (and Subtropical Storm) Lee. Read all about it at the attached link. And stay tuned, because a highly anticipated report (by TCR standards, anyway) gets released tomorrow.

[bg1]

Just so y'all know, Irene's report is coming out later today at some point...keep your eyes peeled!

From yesterday:

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
NHC has completed its Tropical Cyclone Report for Tropical Storm (and Subtropical Storm) Lee. Read all about it at the attached link. And stay tuned, because a highly anticipated report (by TCR standards, anyway) gets released tomorrow.

How do you know? That could mean Jose ...

[CrazyC83]

Just so y'all know, Irene's report is coming out later today at some point...keep your eyes peeled!

From yesterday:

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
NHC has completed its Tropical Cyclone Report for Tropical Storm (and Subtropical Storm) Lee. Read all about it at the attached link. And stay tuned, because a highly anticipated report (by TCR standards, anyway) gets released tomorrow.

How do you know? That could mean Jose ...

Or perhaps TD10...with an upgrade to TS?

[brunota2003]

Just so y'all know, Irene's report is coming out later today at some point...keep your eyes peeled!

From yesterday:

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
NHC has completed its Tropical Cyclone Report for Tropical Storm (and Subtropical Storm) Lee. Read all about it at the attached link. And stay tuned, because a highly anticipated report (by TCR standards, anyway) gets released tomorrow.

How do you know? That could mean Jose ...

Or perhaps TD10...with an upgrade to TS?

Touche, it could be another system.