Colorado State University 2012 forecasts

[wxman57]

Gray/Klotzbach, are they with CSU?

Yes, but it's mostly Phil Klotzbach doing the work now.

[Hurricane Andrew]

wxman, off topic, but when looking at the CFSv2, is it best to use E3 or E1, or E2?

[wxman57]

wxman, off topic, but when looking at the CFSv2, is it best to use E3 or E1, or E2?

From their website:

"Forecasts are from initial conditions of the last 30 days, with 4 runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from initial a period of 10 days. The 1st ensemble (E1) is from the earliest 10 days, the 2nd ensemble (E2) from the second earliest 10 days, and 3rd ensemble (E3) from the latest 10 days."

I'm not sure of the verification history of E1 vs. E2 vs. E3, but I've typically looked at the E3 (latest 10 days).

[HURAKAN]

10/4/2

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... pr2012.pdf

[OuterBanker]

NTC of 75, lower landfall probs. I'll take it.

[OuterBanker]

A people I disagree with nightmare though

[PTrackerLA]

So less activity than normal predicted will probably get the general public thinking this won't be a bad season at all. I'll be just as on guard as any other as it will all come down to steering patterns.

[cycloneye]

For Puerto Rico, the probability of a Tropical Storm passing within 50 miles is 26%,a Hurricane is 12% and a Major Hurricane is 4%. I will take it,but will not relax on that at all.

[Macrocane]

Those numbers are too low IMO, unless El Niño becomes a strong one. I will give my numbers in the poll later today.

Edit: Forget it, my numbers will be similar looking at analog years.

[Stormcenter]

It only takes one.

[ROCK]

boy those are low numbers....I hope they verify but I got a feeling we are all going to be surprised this year.

[Ntxw]

Those are low numbers. I can see justification statistically though, so far this year it has mirrored 2009 very much. Enso transition in April/May, warm spring, possible coming El Nino, cold PDO, warm AMO. Of course the highlight storm of that season was Nor'Ida...should still keep a heads up anyway.

[Florida1118]

I have a feeling that those numbers arent going to hold up with some 2011 Jose's and Franklin's popping up...

[Ptarmigan]

I was talking to Phil about the outlook last week at the NHC. All signals point to diminished activity vs. the past two seasons. Though I didn't see his numbers, I did see that he was thinking 1957 and 1965 were the best analogs, as well as 2001 and 2009. We discussed whether it was possible to ever have less than 10 named storms again based on current detection techniques and naming conventions. I think he'll say either 9 or 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 majors. I think he was leaning toward 1 major but may start out with 2. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the season is sub-10.

Reasons:
Trend toward El Nino (European is most bullish on El Nino developing over the summer)
Predicted much higher pressures across the Tropical Atlantic this year vs. past 2 years (Euro)
Predicted cooler AMO. Stronger Bermuda high means stronger easterly trades and more upwelling of cool water in the MDR

Note that I'm not talking about seasonal "severity", only seasonal numbers. 1957 and 1965 are the best analogs, and both were seasons of 8 or fewer named storms. However 1957 featured Hurricane Audrey and 1965 featured Betsy. A "quiet" season like either of those two would be quite severe compared to 2010 & 2011.

1957 had two tropical systems make landfall and effect Texas/Louisiana; Audrey and Bertha. Interesting to note they mentioned 2001 as an analog as the winter of 2001-2002 was Neutral ENSO.

Even in El Nino years, there have been active seasons like 1969 and 2004.

[hurricanetrack]

Cooler SSTs in the MDR? Not too bad looking to me and quite bit warmer than a month ago:

March:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anom ... 1.2012.gif

Now:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anom ... 2.2012.gif

[wxman57]

Cooler SSTs in the MDR? Not too bad looking to me and quite bit warmer than a month ago:

March:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anom ... 1.2012.gif

Now:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anom ... 2.2012.gif

Here's the graphic Phil Klotzbach referred to in his outlook. Shows significantly below-normal temps in the MDR, particularly in the eastern Atlantic.



The below-normal SSTs in the eastern Atlantic also show up well here:


And then there's the Euro prediction of near-normal temps in the MDR for peak-season:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

The thinking is that continued above-normal easterly trades will prevent SSTs from warming up as much as they normally would between now and peak season, resulting in below-normal SSTs this season. In addition, increased low-level shear due to the stronger trades would hamper development. Not to mention that the Euro continues to forecast much higher surface pressures across most of the basin this year (more sinking air, less tstms).

[hurricanetrack]

But the chart on page 10 of his forecast says "New April Forecast Predictors" and "1" is Jan-March SSTs in the MDR.

[cycloneye]

I suspect that the other agencies and private firms such as TSR,Accuweather and NOAA, that do Hurricane Season seasonal forecasting will go the same route that CSU did.

[wxman57]

I suspect that the other agencies and private firms such as TSR,Accuweather and NOAA, that do Hurricane Season seasonal forecasting will go the same route that CSU did.

I suspect so as well, since they all pretty much look at the same data and use similar criteria.

[MGC]

1957 and 1965 are horrible analogs for Louisiana as devastating hurricanes hit the state in those years. Looking at sea surface temperatures, might not have much of a CV season this year. Likely home grown systems.....MGC