2012 Hurricane Season! Is here!!

[Hurricane Jed]

If we do go El Nino it doesn't mean anything. 1991-94 I think had El Nino conditions at some point in each of those years. 1991 Hurricane Bob (retired) and the Perfect Storm. 1992 Category 5 land falling Hurricane Andrew in South Florida (retired). 1993 Tropical Storm Bret kills nearly 200 in South America and Hurricane Gert kills over 100 in Central America and Mexico. 1994 Hurricane Gordon wipes out over 1000 in Haiti. All I can say is ouch.

[cycloneye]

If we do go El Nino it doesn't mean anything. 1991-94 I think had El Nino conditions at some point in each of those years. 1991 Hurricane Bob (retired) and the Perfect Storm. 1992 Category 5 land falling Hurricane Andrew in South Florida (retired). 1993 Tropical Storm Bret kills nearly 200 in South America and Hurricane Gert kills over 100 in Central America and Mexico. 1994 Hurricane Gordon wipes out over 1000 in Haiti. All I can say is ouch.

Regardless on how many tropical systems form that is correct as it only takes one system to do all the harm to an area in particular.

[Ptarmigan]

If we do go El Nino it doesn't mean anything. 1991-94 I think had El Nino conditions at some point in each of those years. 1991 Hurricane Bob (retired) and the Perfect Storm. 1992 Category 5 land falling Hurricane Andrew in South Florida (retired). 1993 Tropical Storm Bret kills nearly 200 in South America and Hurricane Gert kills over 100 in Central America and Mexico. 1994 Hurricane Gordon wipes out over 1000 in Haiti. All I can say is ouch.

It shows that El Nino does not make the season less dangerous. The Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 occurred in an El Nino season.

[brunota2003]

For El Nino seasons, we have:

TC landfalls per state for the 10 El Nino years:



Number of years, out of the ten, each state had a landfall:



You can see Florida still has a 60% hit rate, and Texas has a 30% rate.

Here was the complete break down for each group (El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral years):

El Nino Landfalls (10 years total):
After reviewing all of the new calculations, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas all receive the most number of landfalls during an El Nino year (35.1%, 21.6%, and 10.8%, respectively, of all El Nino year tropical cyclone landfalls from 1980 through 2009). The other states are as follows: North Carolina and South Carolina (8.1%), Alabama and Massachusetts (5.4%), Mississippi and Rhode Island (2.7%).
However, Florida (60%) is the only state that is greater than 50% when it comes to the chances of having a landfall during an El Nino year. Louisiana and Texas are the next two, falling in at 40% and 30% respectively. The other states are as follows: North Carolina (30%), South Carolina (20%), Alabama (20%), Massachusetts (20%), Mississippi (10%), Rhode Island (10%). The total number of different states impacted during an El Nino year is 9.

Neutral Landfalls (13 years total):
Neutral years from 1980 – 2009 are not kind on Florida and Texas. Florida received 30.4% of all landfalling tropical cyclones, while Texas received 28.2%. The other states are: North Carolina with 15.2%, Louisiana with 13.0%, Maryland and Mississippi with 4.3%, and South Carolina and Virginia with 2.2%.
Meanwhile, Florida had at least one landfall during a Neutral year 76.9% of the time, while Texas was hit 53.8% of the time. The rest of the states are: North Carolina (38.5%), Louisiana (30.8%), Maryland (15.4%), Mississippi, South Carolina and Virginia (7.7%). The total number of different states impacted during a Neutral year is 8.

La Nina Landfalls: (7 years total):
Tropical cyclones during La Nina years really love Florida. 41.0% of all tropical cyclone landfalls during a La Nina year occur somewhere in the Sunshine state. Texas is second, with 17.9% of all landfalls (a welcome decrease from neutral years, but still more than El Nino years). The rest of the states are: North Carolina and Louisiana at 12.8%, while Mississippi, South Carolina, and New York are all at 5.1%.
Out of the 7 years that were La Nina years between 1980 and 2009, Florida was struck at least once every time, for a rate of 100%. Texas and North Carolina came in second and third, both with rates greater than 50% (71.4% and 57.1% respectively). The other states are: Louisiana (42.9%), Mississippi and South Carolina (28.6%), and New York (14.3%). 7 different states were hit.

Also, for the records...1992 was counted as a "Neutral" year (even though it started as El Nino), and Hurricane Emily (1993) was counted as a hit on NC, even though it did not "make" landfall, because of this:

“For the record, Emily will be counted as a category 3 (major hurricane) landfall on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale (Simpson 1974) for Hyde and Dare Counties in North Carolina.”
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/li ... s/1993.pdf (Monthly Weather Review, pg. 880, Volume 123)

Of note:
There were 122 TC landfalls from 1980 – 2009.

[Hurricane Jed]

Is there an accurate list of El Nino, La Nina and neutral years somewhere? I've checked out a bunch of different sites but they all vary and it gets confusing.

[cycloneye]

The prospects for an active 2012 Atlantic season look bleak as this MSLP factor is very important.To add from what our friend wxman57 posted about the January Euro forecast of MSLP at the first page, this Euro Febuary forecast imitates the January one by continuing the forecast of higher pressures (MSLP) in the Atlantic Basin. The forecast is for June,July and August.

[tolakram]

How did the Euro forecast do last year? I remember it forecast lower than normal pressure in the basin, but I honestly did not pay any attention to what really happened as far as pressure was concerned.

[cycloneye]

How did the Euro forecast do last year? I remember it forecast lower than normal pressure in the basin, but I honestly did not pay any attention to what really happened as far as pressure was concerned.

This is Michael's (Ivanhater) thread of last year of " Steering Patterns,Early Indicators for 2011 season" and it was all in blue for the Atlantic with lower pressures. In fact,there were lower pressures on the MDR and Caribbean in the peak of the season,as the subtropical ridge was not strong as negative NAO dominated for the most part.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=110394&p=2141152#p2141152

[blp]

Hello everyone, good to be back posting this year. The MSLP to me is not as important as is other factors such as ENSO, wind shear, vertical instability, dry air. We saw the pacific last year with the EURO showing high MSLP and it produced several majors and was active while the carribean and gulf had low MSLP and were not active. As is the case in most years, the ENSO will be the key factor and if stays neutral we will see an active year. Either way I expect any activity to be closer to land with a stronger high pressure ridge in place than what has occurred in the last few years.

[Scorpion]

I can't even bother with anticipating hurricane season anymore. The last 3 seasons have been total drags. Hard to believe that this season could possibly be any more dull. Anticipating the season used to be so much more enjoyable when I was younger. I guess '04 and '05 spoiled me perhaps, but it also gave me that passion for wanting to experience the power of one. Perhaps next year things will get back to being active..

[beoumont]

I can't even bother with anticipating hurricane season anymore. The last 3 seasons have been total drags. Hard to believe that this season could possibly be any more dull. Anticipating the season used to be so much more enjoyable when I was younger. I guess '04 and '05 spoiled me perhaps, but it also gave me that passion for wanting to experience the power of one. Perhaps next year things will get back to being active..

It would be much more realistic to view those two years as being a once in a lifetime occurrence than to view those years as "normal." 1933, 2005, ????? (2077?). It doesn't get any better.

Landfalls are more a function of pure luck: on where the long wave position just happens to be when the one or few US approaching storms just happen to come along.



Or such as been my observation and studying past records, in the limited number of years (160 or so) there is available to study.

[brunota2003]

Is there an accurate list of El Nino, La Nina and neutral years somewhere? I've checked out a bunch of different sites but they all vary and it gets confusing.

viewtopic.php?f=42&t=107693

That was the topic where the years for my study came from...there was a chart showing what years were what from 1995 to 2009, but I can't remember where I saw it. I think it might have been something Dr. Masters did?

[cycloneye]

Is there an accurate list of El Nino, La Nina and neutral years somewhere? I've checked out a bunch of different sites but they all vary and it gets confusing.

viewtopic.php?f=42&t=107693

That was the topic where the years for my study came from...there was a chart showing what years were what from 1995 to 2009, but I can't remember where I saw it. I think it might have been something Dr. Masters did?

Digging thru the ENSO Updates thread Page 77,I found the Dr Jeff Masters graphic.

[Hurricane Jed]

Awesome. Thanks. And looking at this it reminds me of how there was an El Nino in 2004. 2011 in the EPAC was also somewhat similar to 04 in the Atlantic only the reverse by having a La Nina exist and them still having 10 hurricanes of which 6 were major. So then I'm guessing even if El Nino does come into play during the season it could end up being similar to 2004?

[SFLcane]

I can't even bother with anticipating hurricane season anymore. The last 3 seasons have been total drags. Hard to believe that this season could possibly be any more dull. Anticipating the season used to be so much more enjoyable when I was younger. I guess '04 and '05 spoiled me perhaps, but it also gave me that passion for wanting to experience the power of one. Perhaps next year things will get back to being active..

It would be much more realistic to view those two years as being a once in a lifetime occurrence than to view those years as "normal." 1933, 2005, ????? (2077?). It doesn't get any better.

Landfalls are more a function of pure luck: on where the long wave position just happens to be when the one or few US approaching storms just happen to come along.

Or such as been my observation and studying past records, in the limited number of years (160 or so) there is available to study.

+1

[Ptarmigan]

Awesome. Thanks. And looking at this it reminds me of how there was an El Nino in 2004. 2011 in the EPAC was also somewhat similar to 04 in the Atlantic only the reverse by having a La Nina exist and them still having 10 hurricanes of which 6 were major. So then I'm guessing even if El Nino does come into play during the season it could end up being similar to 2004?

I don't like that if it was like 2004. It was a nasty season for sure. Since we have not been hit by a major hurricane since Wilma in 2005, that looks like a possibility this year. Prior to 2004 and 2005, were a total of 7 major hurricanes that made landfall.
2004-Charley, Ivan, Jeanne
2005-Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma

Prior to that the last major hurricane that made landfall was Bret in 1999. Prior to Bret was Fran in 1996.

[CrazyC83]

I agree it will likely be less active than 2010-11, probably close to 2006 numbers I think.

BUT, we could have the least active season since satellites, and still have one of the worst seasons on record. A low-number year does not mean no major hurricanes making landfall.

[cycloneye]

There is another factor that has to be considered when analizing all about how the upcomming 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season will be like and that is the current drought affecting West Africa. This drought has been over there for the past 5 months and it looks like it will continue for a few more weeks or even months. This will be important as we know,the Tropical Waves that are the first seeds for Tropical Cyclones,may be less numerous than what normally they emerge from West Africa (80-100 waves annually) and that could lead to a less active CV season. Let's see what occurs with this in the future that could be significant if the drought extends thru the Summer.

I am in the slightly above average season camp and my numbers will be posted on April 1rst,when the poll opens.

Immediate action is needed to prevent a large-scale famine in West Africa following the failure of life-giving seasonal rains, World Vision Canada president Dave Toycen said Sunday.

Reached by Postmedia News as he toured a village in rural Mali, Toycen said the situation is already becoming grim for local residents.

``It feels like we're sliding into a crisis here,'' he said. ``It's just the beginning of something that can really have a devastating impact.

``Twenty per cent of people in here Mali - about three million people - we think will be affected by this.

http://www.canada.com/Canada+must+preve ... story.html?

[cycloneye]

We are now less than 100 days until June 1rst. Countdown

[brunota2003]

The problem with less TWs coming off Africa is that that means there will most likely also be more SAL...which suppresses development out to sea (recurves), which means what does develop will more likely be homegrown.