New US Record - 2232 Days With No Major Hurricane Landfall

[CrazyC83]

Of those storms, the only Cat 4+ at US landfall were Hugo, Andrew and Charley, which tells how rare they are! (Although I believe Celia was also a Cat 4 at landfall)

[jinftl]

Essentially a 1 per decade frequency event for a landfalling Cat 4 in the U.S.....and 1 landfalling Cat 5 in the 41 year period looked at from 1970-2011.

Of those storms, the only Cat 4+ at US landfall were Hugo, Andrew and Charley, which tells how rare they are! (Although I believe Celia was also a Cat 4 at landfall)

[Ptarmigan]

I think this data shows the inherent limitations in the current system used to categorize hurricanes - that is wind speed alone. If we look at surge, the U.S. clearly had a surge event that is typical of a major hurricane making landfall with Hurricane Ike in 2008. Surge values reached 20' in Texas...although Ike was technically a Category 2 at landfall. According to the orignal Saffir Simpson scale which had wind and surge value ranges, a surge of 18+ feet constitutes a Category 5 storm!

It is a huge omission to at least note Ike in 2008 on this list of landfalling majors...a surge event typical of a Cat 5 surely deserves a mention:

2000-None
2001-None
2002-None
2003-None
2004-Charley, Ivan, Jeanne
2005-Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma
2006-None
2007-None
2008-Ike (surge)
2009-None
2010-None
2011-None




The NHC has issued the following discussion in conjunction with the explanation they provide on the Saffir Simpson scale:

The scale does not address the potential for other hurricane-related impacts, such as storm surge, rainfall-induced floods, and tornadoes. It should also be noted that these wind-caused damage general descriptions are to some degree dependent upon the local building codes in effect and how well and how long they have been enforced. For example, building codes enacted during the 2000s in Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina are likely to reduce the damage to newer structures from that described below. However, for a long time to come, the majority of the building stock in existence on the coast will not have been built to higher code. Hurricane wind damage is also very dependent upon other factors, such as duration of high winds, change of wind direction, and age of structures.


Earlier versions of this scale – known as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale – incorporated central pressure and storm surge as components of the categories. The central pressure was used during the 1970s and 1980s as a proxy for the winds as accurate wind speed intensity measurements from aircraft reconnaissance were not routinely available for hurricanes until 1990[5]. Storm surge was also quantified by category in the earliest published versions of the scale dating back to 1972[6]. However, hurricane size (extent of hurricane-force winds), local bathymetry (depth of near-shore waters), topography, the hurricane.s forward speed and angle to the coast also affect the surge that is produced[7],[8]. For example, the very large Hurricane Ike (with hurricane force winds extending as much as 125 mi from the center) in 2008 made landfall in Texas as a Category 2 hurricane and had peak storm surge values of about 20 ft. In contrast, tiny Hurricane Charley (with hurricane force winds extending at most 25 mi from the center) struck Florida in 2004 as a Category 4 hurricane and produced a peak storm surge of only about 7 ft. These storm surge values were substantially outside of the ranges suggested in the original scale.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sshws.shtml

I agree that Ike was a major hurricane in regards to storm surge. I was going by wind speed solely of the Saffir-Simpson Scale and I think it needs to change. I think a better way to determine how bad a storm is size and Ike was a monster. Larger storms are worse than smaller storms. For example a small Category 5 hurricane produce 5 feet storm surge, while a large Category 2 hurricane produce 25 feet storm surge. Also, I think Irene in 2011 could qualify as it was a large storm.

[somethingfunny]

That the Saffir-Simpson Scale is fundamentally flawed and needs to be changed sooner rather than later is a great point, but it's a point to be made in another thread, I think. Ike was a monstrous and devastating hurricane, but then you need to put an asterisk on the previous record of no US major hurricane landfalls between Bret99-Charley04 also, because Floyd and Isabel were certainly brutal hurricanes - more brutal than Bret was for sure.

The oddball fact remains that using the same system we've always used, we're in the longest stretch of time without a US major hurricane landfall ever recorded.

[Macrocane]

I may be wrong but I think that Ike and Irene are reminders that a minor hurricane can cause as much damage as a major, wasn't it? IMO (and this is NOT a a forecast) this year there's going to be a major hurricane landfalling in the US but it may be or may not be as destructive as Ike and Irene, it would depend on its size (a large cat 3 may cause higher surge than a small one), the landfall point (Louisiana has more population than southern Texas) and the windspeed (a cat 5 will surely cause more wind damage than a cat 3).

[jinftl]

I agree...i think folks greatly underestimate what a 'weaker' hurricane can do in terms of both surge and wind damage.

This graphic from the NHC website shows the ranking of storm damage (unadjusted for inflation), since most of the top damaging storms interestingly have occurred in the last 10 years or so, the inflation factor isn't huge. What this shows is that a weaker storm...if it hits a surge prone area or a highly populated area...can inflict as much if not more damage than a major.

Even this graphic has to be taken with a grain of salt - while Wilma technically did make landfall in far SW Florida as a Cat 3, almost all of the $20 billion in damage took place from West Palm to Miami. This area experienced sustained cat 1 (a few areas near Fort Lauderdale and southern Palm Beach county may have had sustained Cat 2 winds) and saw no real surge damage...and the result of an area of 6+ million people seeing sustained winds of 75-95 mph was $20 billion in damage!!!

Similarly, an enormous Cat 2 making landfall in the upper Texas coast brought a surge typical of a Cat 5 storm and ranks as the 2nd costliest storm.

We even have a tropical storm ranked as the 9th costliest!!!

I may be wrong but I think that Ike and Irene are reminders that a minor hurricane can cause as much damage as a major, wasn't it? IMO (and this is NOT a a forecast) this year there's going to be a major hurricane landfalling in the US but it may be or may not be as destructive as Ike and Irene, it would depend on its size (a large cat 3 may cause higher surge than a small one), the landfall point (Louisiana has more population than southern Texas) and the windspeed (a cat 5 will surely cause more wind damage than a cat 3).

[CrazyC83]

Even tropical storm winds in heavily populated areas can cause significant damage, especially if the duration is long. While such winds would only cause isolated damage if they only lasted for a couple hours, if those winds persist for 12 to 24 hours, then many trees and power lines will come down, and those can damage houses and cause casualties.

Irene knocked out power to about 8 million people - and the only places that saw hurricane-force sustained winds were parts of eastern North Carolina (not very heavily populated).