Changes comming to hurricane warning system

[MGC]

No amount of warning is going to compel some to evacuate. Despite the forecast of over 25 feet of surge here in Mississippi for Katrina many stayed. They paid with their lives. Every hurricane has those that are determined to ride it out....no amount of warning will get them to leave. Was the cone not implemented after Charley in 2004 when Charley didn't follow the forecast track into Tampa and many thought they were safe? I don't know how to convey to the public the actual threat any particular hurricane will impact them. Too many variables I think....wind, water, waves, inland flooding, tornadoes.......MGC

[brunota2003]

The cone was in place years before...but people focused on the actual forecast points and the skinny black line, instead of the fact that a hurricane is not a point. Using the 20% or greater line gives people a more realistic look at what can happen...as even during Charley, the area impacted would of most likely been in the 64 kt+ 20%

[brunota2003]

Here is another image I made, using the 50% threshold this time (and at a later time). It seems the 20% threshold is closer to your 5 day cone, and the 50% is closer to the 3 day cone...except instead of using center points, it is using wind speeds. In both images, the 34 knot lines roughly correspond with where the TS watches are, and the 50 knot line corresponds with about where the Hurricane watches are.

Another thing is that I created three different types of images. One has all three colored areas marked by black boundary lines, one has just the outside marked, and the 3rd has none marked (just letting the color separate the zones). Which looks best?

50% 3 lines:


50% 1 line:


50% No lines: