Area in Caribbean

[northjaxpro]

NDG, it sure looks as if a weak low may be trying to develop at the surface approximately 50 miles to the southeast of Marathon. The spin is very evident on the radar loop as of 12:30 p.m. EDT. It will be interesting to see if it does develop at the surface. Just checked the pressure readings with the reporting stations down in the Keys. They are not any lower than 1015 mb currently. That is not very low at the current time.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like shear drops a bit today into tomorrow and then ramps back up later Monday. Small window for some slight development IMO.

[chaser1]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yep, looking at the latest 12Z GFS, looks as if what little window for perhaps a weak surface low would certainly be near term. Not only does upper air look to become less difluent, but WV would indicate that subsidence appears to be on the increase in the Central/Southern Gulf. This bit of dryer air wrapping in from the S.W. and West won't be helping the cause. As mentioned previously, there could be a case for some type of center appearing on radar East of Marathon, however I might be able to make a case for at least one more point of turning and rather think these areas to be more or less transient areas of vorticity. My guess is that a broader "sloppy" ( and very weak ) low may become slightly more evident to appear to cover the majority of the middle/lower keys. However, would guess that such a surface reflection would drift or move generally westward and with upper winds hardly permitting convection to wrap around the west side, this would seem to hinder much opportunity for deepening.

Gotta be rough for local mets to forecast, given the relative range in conditions over S. Florida. Here in W. Broward, we have no doubt received a minimum of 3" over the last 36 hours. Radar appears to show the northern extent of the present rain shield to be moving south and temporarily impacting points north of Ft. Lauderdale less than earlier. Am guessing that heaviest rains to become more and more narrow with Southern half of Miami-Dade and Upper Keys to continue to get dumped on. I think this overal system will start to take on an increasingly stretched east/west orientation after tomm. (monday) morning and to lose most of its sub-tropical appearance by Tuesday a.m. Perhaps after this afternoon, parts of Miami-Dade/upper Keys may get 4-6" more rain, but N. Broward less than 2" and lower Keys even less.

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yep, looking at the latest 12Z GFS, looks as if what little window for perhaps a weak surface low would certainly be near term. Not only does upper air look to become less difluent, but WV would indicate that subsidence appears to be on the increase in the Central/Southern Gulf. This bit of dryer air wrapping in from the S.W. and West won't be helping the cause. As mentioned previously, there could be a case for some type of center appearing on radar East of Marathon, however I might be able to make a case for at least one more point of turning and rather think these areas to be more or less transient areas of vorticity. My guess is that a broader "sloppy" ( and very weak ) low may become slightly more evident to appear to cover the majority of the middle/lower keys. However, would guess that such a surface reflection would drift or move generally westward and with upper winds hardly permitting convection to wrap around the west side, this would seem to hinder much opportunity for deepening.

Gotta be rough for local mets to forecast, given the relative range in conditions over S. Florida. Here in W. Broward, we have no doubt received a minimum of 3" over the last 36 hours. Radar appears to show the northern extent of the present rain shield to be moving south and temporarily impacting points north of Ft. Lauderdale less than earlier. Am guessing that heaviest rains to become more and more narrow with Southern half of Miami-Dade and Upper Keys to continue to get dumped on. I think this overal system will start to take on an increasingly stretched east/west orientation after tomm. (monday) morning and to lose most of its sub-tropical appearance by Tuesday a.m. Perhaps after this afternoon, parts of Miami-Dade/upper Keys may get 4-6" more rain, but N. Broward less than 2" and lower Keys even less.

Hi my friend. To let you know that I added to your post the Storm2k disclaimer.

[Aric Dunn]

Nice close up. lools like a nice surface Low forming could be a lot more rainy and windy than previously forecast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/e ... h-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

Although different time of year. remember alberto 2006. exposed low.

[Cainer]

I'm going to Varadero on Tuesday for a week - figures that the rainy season would kick in as soon as I get there. Any idea how long this system will stick around for? Maybe I'll have some sun the last few days of the trip?

[northjaxpro]

Nice close up. lools like a nice surface Low forming could be a lot more rainy and windy than previously forecast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/e ... h-rgb.html

Yes, based on that visible imagery and the radar loop I had posted on this page earlier, a possible weak surface reflection appears evident to the southeast of Marathon.

The system is moving very slowly, if at all currently. Thus, the reason for all the heavy rain amounts over the extreme southern peninsula. The ridge of High pressure across the SE US will keep this system confined over this region and eventually this moisture will drift west or west-northwest into the Southern or East GOM in the next 48 hours.

The system has only a brief window to develop into a hybrid/subtropical system in the next 12-24 hours or so before models project shear and very dry air to the west to inhibit its potential to organize any further. Still, a very interesting feature to monitor and something to wet our appetites with the approach of the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season just over a month away from now.

[cycloneye]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REMAIN EASTERLY ON BOTH SIDE
OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH NO HINT OF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1550 UTC SHOWED
E-NE WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE COAST OF NAPLES FLORIDA...WELL N OF
FLORIDA BAY. THE 12Z GFS CARRIES 25 KT N-NE WINDS S OF NAPLES AT
1800 UTC TODAY. OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THESE WINDS WHICH
APPEARS TO BE A BI-PRODUCT OF CONTINUED CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES WITH THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FAVOR A STRONGER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE UKMET SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO THE GULF MORE SLOWLY THAN THE GFS AND WAITS
TO INCREASE WINDS TO 25 KT UNTIL LATE MON. THE TREND IN THE
MODELS HAS BEEN TOWARD MAINTAINING STRONGER RIDGING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES...MAKING FOR A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE. THE 12Z
UKMET IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z RUN IN ENDING THE 20 KT WINDS
AND SEAS AT OR OVER 8 FT IN THE NE GULF AFTER 1800 UTC WED.

[Aric Dunn]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REMAIN EASTERLY ON BOTH SIDE
OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH NO HINT OF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1550 UTC SHOWED
E-NE WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE COAST OF NAPLES FLORIDA...WELL N OF
FLORIDA BAY. THE 12Z GFS CARRIES 25 KT N-NE WINDS S OF NAPLES AT
1800 UTC TODAY. OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THESE WINDS WHICH
APPEARS TO BE A BI-PRODUCT OF CONTINUED CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES WITH THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FAVOR A STRONGER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE UKMET SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO THE GULF MORE SLOWLY THAN THE GFS AND WAITS
TO INCREASE WINDS TO 25 KT UNTIL LATE MON. THE TREND IN THE
MODELS HAS BEEN TOWARD MAINTAINING STRONGER RIDGING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES...MAKING FOR A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE. THE 12Z
UKMET IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z RUN IN ENDING THE 20 KT WINDS
AND SEAS AT OR OVER 8 FT IN THE NE GULF AFTER 1800 UTC WED.

well I see southerly winds on the south the "mid level" over cuba and a couple NNW winds south of Key west at a observation on the northern coast of cuba. so seems there is some hints of a surface low forming.

[Patrick99]

Whatever it is, this has been impressive from both a wind and rain standpoint here in South Florida. I've seen TDs and even tropical storms that didn't pack this much punch.

[brunota2003]

This was from earlier this afternoon:

[boca]

THE PWAT ON THE MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING IS AT 1.87 INCHES, OR 170%
ABOVE AVG AND IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SO WITH THAT SAID, SHOULD A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
DEVELOP...LOCALIZED LOCALES COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, THIS THREAT
DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS EARLIER THOUGHT, THOUGH STILL POSSIBLE.
SO WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING. ALSO, THE HEAVY RAIN RISK MAY
INCREASE ON MONDAY. KEY WEST AND MIAMI RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW SOME 70 NM SE OF MARATHON.
THIS IS AT 8-10K FT. RIGHT NOW NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION.
THIS FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT-MONDAY PLACING SOUTH FL IN A FAVORABLE ESE MOIST WIND
FLOW FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS. /GREGORIA

This was an insert from the NWS in Miami about that low pressure area.Kudos to NDG and northjaxpro for picking up on the low.

[NDG]

Still a weak surface rotation noticeable on radar south of Key West this morning moving very slowly westward while the mid level circulation continues to slowly weaken, so the surface low should not be getting any deeper than what it is due to shear and dry air moving in above it.

The forecasted heavy rains of 5-10" for SE FL by the GFS yesterday appears to have been a convective forecast error by the model, the heaviest rains that I have seen so far are in the 1-3" at the most, and in the latest runs it has substantially backed away.

[gatorcane]

I am surprised there is no invest area up for this. Looks invest-worthy to me this morning.

[boca]

Looks like some spin between Key largo and Miami about 30 miles off the coast.

[wxman57]

I'm going to Varadero on Tuesday for a week - figures that the rainy season would kick in as soon as I get there. Any idea how long this system will stick around for? Maybe I'll have some sun the last few days of the trip?

If I knew where "Varadero" was, I could tell you. If it's somewhere in south Florida, then this weather system will be moving out later today. Just scattered daytime showers/thunderstorms by tomorrow, diminishing further on Wednesday.

[weatherwindow]

I'm going to Varadero on Tuesday for a week - figures that the rainy season would kick in as soon as I get there. Any idea how long this system will stick around for? Maybe I'll have some sun the last few days of the trip?

If I knew where "Varadero" was, I could tell you. If it's somewhere in south Florida, then this weather system will be moving out later today. Just scattered daytime showers/thunderstorms by tomorrow, diminishing further on Wednesday.

cuba, north coast, east of havana:)

[floridasun78]

here in miami it look like their tropical system near by it look bad at sea too http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/mia ... iamibeach1

[northjaxpro]

The pressure gradient increased today between the ridge of High Pressure across the SE US to Mid Atlantic and the surface trough/weak Low across the Florida Straits funneling strong east winds across the extreme SE peninsula and The Keys. The Miami NWS office earlier this afternoon reported a wind gust up to 35 mph and Virginia Key had a wind gust to 43 mph.