LLC Developing just East of Belize?? (Is invest 94L)

Aric Dunn · #21 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri May 18, 2012 12:36 pm

We clearly have a closed well defined circ now. quite evident on sat and radar. just missing organized convection. if any does develop then an invest would likely follow pretty quickly.

Sat Loop

surface obs confirm its at the surface. so at least the models were right about a warm core low forming.

Aric Dunn · #22 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri May 18, 2012 1:51 pm

Nogaps more aggressive..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

#23 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 18, 2012 2:42 pm

Little swirl

Aric Dunn · #24 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri May 18, 2012 3:12 pm

12z euro is interesting. shows the present low hanging around for a about 5 days then moves it over the yucatan... then a low that develops near burmuda drop sw to Florida.. hmmm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

#25 Postby **NDG** » Fri May 18, 2012 3:58 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:We clearly have a closed well defined circ now. quite evident on sat and radar. just missing organized convection. if any does develop then an invest would likely follow pretty quickly.

Sat Loop

surface obs confirm its at the surface. so at least the models were right about a warm core low forming.

I wouldn't say models, instead say model. GFS was the only that was showing a few days ago a weak closed surface low forming about this time.

#26 Postby **NDG** » Fri May 18, 2012 7:21 pm

On the MIMIC-TPW loop I can clearly see the small circulation beginning to tap into some moisture, lets see if it fires up some convection with increasing UL divergence.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

#27 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat May 19, 2012 5:00 am

The 1010 mb Low is basically stationary in the Gulf of Honduras and has been for the past 36 hours.

The low level swirl remains rather well-defined but still void of convection. It will be interesting to see if the shear can decrease at least 20 knots or slightly less in that region. If that happens, then the system may have a fighting chance to get somewhat organized. Convection has to begin firing near or within the low level swirl to have the possibility of this declared an invest in the short term.

Nimbus · #28 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat May 19, 2012 7:01 am

The convection keeps getting sheared off to the east and there is probably too much dry air coming in from the Yucatan at the mid levels. If the low sticks around long enough for the shear to lighten up it may have a chance.

#29 Postby **wxman57** » Sat May 19, 2012 8:06 am

Look much farther north, offshore Carolinas. Should be an invest soon.

Aric Dunn · #30 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat May 19, 2012 8:23 am

small circ. well defined but too much shear and dry air at them moment euro still keeps it around for another 4 days or so. could find a little time to organize.

#31 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat May 19, 2012 9:35 am

The Low pressure area in the Gulf of Honduras continues to hang tough despite the shear currently. Convection is flaring again on the south and southeast side of the low level swirl. But the westerly shear will blow these tops off to the east and northeast later today.

#32 Postby **NDG** » Sat May 19, 2012 4:29 pm

Hard to find our little LLC friend off the coast of Belize, looks like a new surface circulation might want to get going in the Yucatan Channel.

#33 Postby **NDG** » Sun May 20, 2012 7:30 am

Surface low circulation appears to be just south of Cozumel along the eastern Yucatan P.
But westerly shear is relentless.

#34 Postby **tailgater** » Sun May 20, 2012 11:54 am

Yeah low looks to be tracking west now across the Yucatan, and conditions don't look any better in the BOC.

Aric Dunn · #35 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon May 21, 2012 7:35 am

still a broad circ down there and the 00z euro continues to want to develop something out of it over the 4 to 5 days. still needs to be watched.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

as does the ukmet
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTR ... kloop.html

and nogaps
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Aric Dunn · #36 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon May 21, 2012 10:35 am

Latest visible is showing large circ down there with the center right on the coast drifting east from the border of belize and yucatan. still high shear atm but less than the last couple days.

#37 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon May 21, 2012 11:46 am

Yeah there is definitely a large circulation there and the trough continues to hang around the Western Caribbean. There is some model support for weak development towards the end of this week (CMC and GFS), an area to watch in my opinion.

Aric Dunn · #38 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon May 21, 2012 11:54 am

gatorcane wrote:Yeah there is definitely a large circulation there and the trough continues to hang around the Western Caribbean. There is some model support for weak development towards the end of this week (CMC and GFS), an area to watch in my opinion.

and the Euro, ukmet, nogaps

#39 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon May 21, 2012 12:58 pm

The NW Caribbean disturbance is looking more and more interesting as time progresses. As some of you have already indicated, the models are beginning to hint at some type of possible development in the next few days.

canes04 · #40 Postby **canes04** » Mon May 21, 2012 1:19 pm

Agree,this has got my attention. If shear relaxs it could spin up.
We could have 2 named storms this month.

When was the last time 2 storms formed in May?

LLC Developing just East of Belize?? (Is invest 94L)

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