Small swirl south of Florida Panhandle

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Aric Dunn]

radar indicating that the whole complex in the midlevels is beginning to rotate. wont be long till the low level circ reforms under that if the convection maintains.

[northjaxpro]

Also, similiar to Berly from 1994:

Well, similar only to as to location relative to where it forms. However, if this current feature tries to consolidate and close off, the path it will take will likely be far different than Beryl 1994. This current feature will be likely pinned down in the GOM as ridging from the Mid-Atlantic is forecast to occur by Sunday and will impart a west or west-southwest motion in the coming days.

[thundercam96]

How Fast Is This Disturbance Moving? How Much Longer Does It Have Over Water To Develop?

[Aric Dunn]

How Fast Is This Disturbance Moving? How Much Longer Does It Have Over Water To Develop?

it will remain over water for the foreseeable future. not moving fast at all most just going to drift around for the next 24 hurs then move on a westerly track

[Nikki]

How Fast Is This Disturbance Moving? How Much Longer Does It Have Over Water To Develop?

it will remain over water for the foreseeable future. not moving fast at all most just going to drift around for the next 24 hurs then move on a westerly track

With it being close to land, is this what will keep it from organizing into anything real strong?

[Aric Dunn]

How Fast Is This Disturbance Moving? How Much Longer Does It Have Over Water To Develop?

it will remain over water for the foreseeable future. not moving fast at all most just going to drift around for the next 24 hurs then move on a westerly track

With it being close to land, is this what will keep it from organizing into anything real strong?

well mostly the shear will keep it ( if it were to develop) at a tropical storm unless the shear drops, its far enough offshore and small enough that the land wont affect it much.

[thundercam96]

Do Any Of You Think It Will Be Named As An Invest If The LLC Starts To Form And Convection Fires Up?

[fwbbreeze]

The rotation is evident at some level south of Panama City
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=EVX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Marine Warning for the gulf water south of Panama CIty
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=mob&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=317&map.y=212


THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA...AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW AND THE CLASH OF ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS. SOME WILL BE SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE THE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

[Aric Dunn]

Do Any Of You Think It Will Be Named As An Invest If The LLC Starts To Form And Convection Fires Up? It Is In Really Good Conditions For Development.

well if the convection persists all day I would imagine so.

[thundercam96]

The rotation is evident at some level south of Panama City
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=EVX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Marine Warning for the gulf water south of Panama CIty
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=mob&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=317&map.y=212


THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA...AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW AND THE CLASH OF ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS. SOME WILL BE SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE THE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

Yeah That Rotation Is Slowly Getting More Defined And It Was Really Evident.

[Nikki]

it will remain over water for the foreseeable future. not moving fast at all most just going to drift around for the next 24 hurs then move on a westerly track[/quote]

With it being close to land, is this what will keep it from organizing into anything real strong?[/quote]

well mostly the shear will keep it ( if it were to develop) at a tropical storm unless the shear drops, its far enough offshore and small enough that the land wont affect it much.[/quote]


Thank you Aric Dunn....I have sooooooooo much to learn!!

[thundercam96]

it will remain over water for the foreseeable future. not moving fast at all most just going to drift around for the next 24 hurs then move on a westerly track

With it being close to land, is this what will keep it from organizing into anything real strong?[/quote]

well mostly the shear will keep it ( if it were to develop) at a tropical storm unless the shear drops, its far enough offshore and small enough that the land wont affect it much.[/quote]


Thank you Aric Dunn....I have sooooooooo much to learn!! [/quote]

Your Not Alone Lol

[crimi481]

TAMPA / S.W. Fl - Morning Update
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
910 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.UPDATE...
WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND SAGGING INTO
SOUTHERN FL LATER TODAY EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE WITH SOME POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. AT 858 AM EDT DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR IN RUSKIN FL WAS SHOWING SOME CELLS ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. AS NE FLOW ESTABLISHES...WHATEVER
ONSHORE FLOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE
COASTLINE WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. INHERITED POPS AND WEATHER COVERAGE LOOKS
REASONABLE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WILL BE
MADE.

MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ARE POTENTIAL FOR SEVER
WEATHER...INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...TORRENTIAL
RAINS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

[fwbbreeze]

latest visible seems to show some T-torms blowing up on the west side of the circulation. Still a ton of shear it appears.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[thundercam96]

The Sea Surface Temperatures Are Not A Problem Here

[ROCK]

with no model support its hard to support developement...that said the models are not always right either. I have been watching the NOGAPS for fun but I did see it picked up on this feature a few days ago....blind squirrel maybe...but it still needs to get a LLC for it to verify.

[bayoubebe]

Supposed to be going to Florida(beach/Panhandle area) next weekend. In your opinions, is the weather going to be bad? Will the storm below FL currently be affecting the area in a week?

[ROCK]

Supposed to be going to Florida(beach/Panhandle area) next weekend. In your opinions, is the weather going to be bad? Will the storm below FL currently be affecting the area in a week?

this (whatever it becomes) will be long gone by next week....I would be watching the BOC potential system...

[northjaxpro]

with no model support its hard to support developement...that said the models are not always right either. I have been watching the NOGAPS for fun but I did see it picked up on this feature a few days ago....blind squirrel maybe...but it still needs to get a LLC for it to verify.

Well, initially NHC had analyzed a 1012 mb Low at 12Z. They changed that to now be a weaker 1015 mb surface reflection at 15Z just south of Panama City.

I agree with Aric. If the convective complex continues to persists, there is a decent chance a stronger low-level surface reflection can form closer to that area. I have been closely watching this small system ever since it emerged off shore of Mobile on Wednesday night and it definitely has improved in the past 48 hours.

This system is getting over 85 degree sea surface temps and the environment is gradually becoming conducive for development. Not only did NOGAPS indicate a surface feature in this region the past couple of days, but so did NAM as well. I remember that 96 hour NAM run which actually closed off this feature as it moved westward valid Sunday 6-17. We will see.