Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

[Gustywind]

From the 2:05 AM EDT discussion
A 1010 MB LOW IS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N20W MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE
FROM 13N20W TO 12N23W.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS keeps the low across the Atlantic then loses it in the Caribbean and crashed into CA.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

00z ECMWF, bring this wave across the Atlantic then skirts above the Caribbean gets better organized then appears to begin west around 20N/65W as the high builds in. Models now starting to push this energy more westward that before. If it develops this could be a player, JMHO.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[Sanibel]

July SAL zone should do a number on it.

[Aric Dunn]

There is clearly a surface circ seen in visible and nearby surface obs. stable air will be the big inhibiting factor. going to take time none the less.

[Blown Away]

There is clearly a surface circ seen in visible and nearby surface obs. stable air will be the big inhibiting factor. going to take time none the less.

Models generally show a weak low moving across the Atlantic and GFS sends it into the Caribbean and dissipates and the ECMWF seems to deepen the low once it gets above PR and may fall into that homebrew category like many have predicted for this season.

[cycloneye]

There is clearly a surface circ seen in visible and nearby surface obs. stable air will be the big inhibiting factor. going to take time none the less.

Clearly Aric.

[Blown Away]

In 72 hours the TAFB attaches a low to our wave moving across the Atlantic.

[Aric Dunn]

There is clearly a surface circ seen in visible and nearby surface obs. stable air will be the big inhibiting factor. going to take time none the less.

Clearly Aric.

[img]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/images/eatl_vis_loop.gif[/mg]

A closer look.

[Steve H.]

Strong circulation also heading for the west coast of Africa behind our Cape Verde wave.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS keeps wave weak through Atlantic then deepens it a little as it moves over PR, but gets torn apart over Hispaniola/Cuba.
Correction: It appears this wave turns N and begins to develop and head for the NC. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[cycloneye]

12z GFS keeps wave weak through Atlantic then deepens it a little as it moves over PR, but gets torn apart over Hispaniola/Cuba. The GFS getting consistent and generally bring this wave through the Caribbean and it appears the energy after being torn apart moves towards Florida into the GOM.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

And the 12z Euro at 168 hours has Strong Wave very close to the northern Leewards/VI/Puerto Rico.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS/EURO summary, both appear to develop this wave as it moves N away from the NE Caribbean. The GFS seems to send it to NC and the EURO towards Bermuda.
GFS: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
EURO: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Just my opinion only!

[cycloneye]

From this afternoon's discussion by the San Juan NWS.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED JUL 25 2012


FEATURE OF MOST INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22W/23W AND
ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW PRES. 12Z GFS AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM
NHC/HPC HAVE AEW MOVING FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND STAYING MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE 12Z GFS AND GFES NOW SHOW A SLIGHTLY
BETTER UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK H25 ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN
TANDEM WITH THE WAVE WITH 7 OUT OF 12 GFES MEMBERS INDICATING A
CLOSED SFC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 1010-1012 MB. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD WITH TIMING OF WAVE PASSAGE SEEN ON THE SPAGHETTI PLOT BUT
HAVE SPED UP THE ASSOCIATED WX WITH THIS WAVE TO MON NIGHT THRU
TUE NIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS/GFES AND NHC/HPC MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIG DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE UNFVRBL PHASE OF THE MJO AND H25 POSITIVE
VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES.

[Blown Away]

That's what I've been trying to say!!
GFS has this wave over PR in @5-6 days.

[wxman57]

Caribbean is, and probably still will be in 5-6 days, a "death zone" for any tropical disturbance. Wind shear remains 20-40 kts through almost the entire Caribbean. Only the extreme NW Caribbean is out of the high shear.

[Gustywind]

From the 08: 05 pm discussion...
A 1011 MB TROPICAL LOW IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
NEAR 12N24W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 25W-28W.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS still bringing this wave over the NE Caribbean then turns NW into Bahamas and deepens as it moves towards the Carolinas. Trending westward with each run and IMO if one of these runs can avoid Hispaniola it seems there is a better environment to develop. Surprised it's so quiet!!
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[cycloneye]

Surprised it's so quiet!!

As soon this is mentioned by NHC with a circle (If it does) and gets invest status (If it does) that will change bigtime.

[ROCK]

I am watching it...... but it has a long way to go yet.....

NOGAPS doesnt think so....developes it faster and out to sea....but its the NOGAPS...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[mcheer23]

Dont see much with this as of now...