Strong wave emerging Africa (Is Invest 93L)

[KWT]

Strong 12z GFS thats for sure, thats a very worrying upper pattern, won't be gaining any latitude any time soon...

[Hurricaneman]

Strong 12z GFS thats for sure, thats a very worrying upper pattern, won't be gaining any latitude any time soon...

Maybe a NW tug at 50W but the ridge will show its muscle in this run, similar to Frances in 2004, but this is way out and could and probably will change

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[caneseddy]

On this run, the GFS sends a monster trough that breaks the ridge down and sends 13L right over Bermuda and then wants to send it close to Cape Cod

[Ivanhater]

Recurve on this run...on this run, the GFS sends a monster trough that breaks the ridge down and sends it fishing right over Bermuda

Actually the high builds atop of it and send it toward the Eastern Seaboard

[caneseddy]

Recurve on this run...on this run, the GFS sends a monster trough that breaks the ridge down and sends it fishing right over Bermuda

Actually the high builds atop of it and send it toward the Eastern Seaboard

You are right but it looks like it will still miss the US.

And look what the GFS has coming off of Africa

[Riptide]

Recurve on this run...on this run, the GFS sends a monster trough that breaks the ridge down and sends it fishing right over Bermuda

Actually the high builds atop of it and send it toward the Eastern Seaboard

It's a close call either way you look at it; no guarantee it will recurve or even affect the East Coast, could go south into the Carribean or into Florida. Even considering that it crosses into the Atlantic at a rather high laditude.

[caneseddy]

Recurve on this run...on this run, the GFS sends a monster trough that breaks the ridge down and sends it fishing right over Bermuda

Actually the high builds atop of it and send it toward the Eastern Seaboard

It's a close call either way you look at it; no guarantee it will recurve or even affect the East Coast, could go south into the Carribean or into Florida. Even considering that it crosses into the Atlantic at a rather high laditude.

For some reason, I'm not buying that huge break depicted at 252 hours...that would have to be a monster trough that breaks that ridge down, although I believe the 00z GFS or 06Z GFS depicted the monster trough coming down

[Ivanhater]

Oh yeah...looking at the pattern, the ridge wants to stay dominant...certainly a threat to the U.S

[caneseddy]

Oh yeah...looking at the pattern, the ridge wants to stay dominant...certainly a threat to the U.S

Even though the GFS has been on point so far this season, I am wondering whether it is breaking that ridge down too soon like it usually does because like Michael said that ridge does not want to budge..we will know but as we know 252 hours is la-la-land

And the pattern that is forming reminds me of late August early September 2004 with a weak El Nino

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ConvergenceZone]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if a large SAL outbreak came along with this wave, the upper high really strengthens and moves westwards with 13L by 96hrs, looks like a classic set-up for a SAL outbreak. Maybe why some models do little with this system.

We'll see though!

KWT! Don't see you much on the boards like in the past....Miss reading all your storm insights....

[ConvergenceZone]

Oh yeah...looking at the pattern, the ridge wants to stay dominant...certainly a threat to the U.S

Even though the GFS has been on point so far this season, I am wondering whether it is breaking that ridge down too soon like it usually does because like Michael said that ridge does not want to budge..we will know but as we know 252 hours is la-la-land

And the pattern that is forming reminds me of late August early September 2004 with a weak El Nino

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I"m actually suprised there hasn't been more activity this yea.
It will be September before we know it...Is it normal to be only up to the
F storm by this time in August?

How many hurricanes have we had so far this year?? I forgot...

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't be suprised if this gets lemoned within the next 48 hrs due to having a low already and model support, and I wouldn't be suprised if this is invested in the next 72hrs if it can hang after splashdown

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[BigA]

Looking at the lastest (12Z) GFS run, it looks like the GFS initializes the wave as a 1006 mb low over central Mali, and has it emerge from the coast in 60 hours at about 18 north. However, the majority of the convection and apparent curvature associated with the wave is located over southwestern Mali and northern Ivory Coast, about 5 degrees to the south.

This is pretty academic for now, unless you live in West Africa, but it could have track implications if this pouch does end up becoming a TC.

[bob rulz]

Oh yeah...looking at the pattern, the ridge wants to stay dominant...certainly a threat to the U.S

Even though the GFS has been on point so far this season, I am wondering whether it is breaking that ridge down too soon like it usually does because like Michael said that ridge does not want to budge..we will know but as we know 252 hours is la-la-land

And the pattern that is forming reminds me of late August early September 2004 with a weak El Nino

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I"m actually suprised there hasn't been more activity this yea.
It will be September before we know it...Is it normal to be only up to the
F storm by this time in August?

How many hurricanes have we had so far this year?? I forgot...

We are way ahead of schedule in terms of tropical storms. I think Florence was the 3rd or 4th-earliest F storm on record? Can't remember for sure.

Ernesto is only the 2nd hurricane so far though, which I think is pretty close to normal.

[cycloneye]

2012 indeed is ahead in terms of being above normal on the timeframe.





http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/ ... c-2012.htm

[RL3AO]

Nice first image from the new satellite MSG3.

http://www.eumetsat.int/groups/cps/documents/image/img_msg3_firstimage_120807.jpg
Warning large image.

[somethingfunny]

Pouch 13L took a dive to the south, it's around 13°N now as opposed to 17°N yesterday. It might ride the ITCZ back north again as waves usually do, since the globals have mostly shown the system exiting Africa at around 17°N. It just seems wierd to me to have a system exit that far north; usually they have no chance when they exit Africa above 15°N.

Look at this thing spin, though.



And, the real story on 92L is how it and ex-Florence are clearing out the SAL:

[somethingfunny]

As I look at that Africa loop again I'm noticing the pouch has several circulations. The more obvious spin is the one with the convection of course, farther south where there's more moisture to play with. But there's another circulation crossing the border from southwestern Niger into Mali, firing up a few isolated thunderstorms over the Sahel as it does so. That circulation is north of 15°N. What's going on with this thing? I usually don't watch waves very closely while they're still in Africa, I'm trying to learn how they behave now.

[cycloneye]

sf, here is one GFS ensemble member scenario on very long range.

[SeminoleWind]

that scenario is not allowed to verify.