Early 2013 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

[Hurricaneman]

So far everywhere in the atlantic basin is at above normal instability except the MDR which means if this continues through the hurricane season it could be a lesser version of 2005 with development close to land, but those developers could be doozies

[cycloneye]

What I gather from the factors that guide a season to be active or not so far is a mix bag with some things being favorable and others not so. Of course I will wait until April 1rst when the S2K numbers poll opens to post my set of numbers,but I can say from now is that the 2013 North Atlantic season will have tropical activity above the normal average of 10/6/2. About U.S landfalls this season I say that it will occur twice without mentioning areas in particular nor the strengh.

[Ntxw]

I agree with the ideas that this season is going to be a tough forecast. There is no real signal from enso to help so a lot will depend on localized weather patterns. Neutral years can be very active but at the same time there are some that aren't. I still believe the 1950s will provide the best insight since the cold PDO/warm AMO are the only big signs that gives a good indication of what to expect at this time.

[CrazyC83]

My current guess is 19/9/4, but again that is just an early thought up to now.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not so much interested in numbers but more so if storms will be able to intensify without all the dry air and shear that has been present the last few years.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We will have to wait and see (obviously), but if current forecasts pan out, I fully believe we will see a return of MDR hurricanes this year. Here's why:

- The CFS forecasts below-average wind shear for the entire season across much of the Atlantic. We know the drill...low wind shear, better chance of tropical cyclone development.

- Sea surface temperatures across the MDR are currently ~1C above normal and forecast to continue on an upward trend for the rest of the month.

- A well-defined tripole signature is becoming evident.

- A combination of both the tripole and above-average SSTs means the MJO should tend to "cling" to the Atlantic during the season. MJO = upward motion = wetter conditions. It MAY (emphasis) lead to above-average vertical instability.

- Western Africa rainfall is expected to be quite a bit above average during the peak of the season, meaning healthy waves.

- Finally...the forecast seems to be for a negative NAO throughout the hurricane season. A negative NAO promotes a weaker-than-normal high across the central Atlantic, reducing the trade winds across the eastern Atlantic. Not only does this allow for systems to consolidate better by preventing speed shear (see 2012: eastern Atlantic - Isaac, eastern Caribbean - Ernesto), but it also pulls less SAL off Africa.

[Riptide]

Seems like a perfect combination of factors. If it were not for the fact that the last 3 season have ranked above average(all tied for 3rd most active ever recorded), I would have no problem forecasting 20+ named systems this year. It's rare to have 4 consecutive years of above average activity.

[tolakram]

Seems like a perfect combination of factors. If it were not for the fact that the last 3 season have ranked above average(all tied for 3rd most active ever recorded), I would have no problem forecasting 20+ named systems this year. It's rare to have 4 consecutive years of above average activity.

I would agree, but I also think just going by numbers might not be an indicator of above average. A lot of the storms in the last couple of years were pretty weak.

And on the theme of averages, I still expect some kind of El Nino signal to develop later in the year, but only because we're "due" for one (which of course is about as non scientific as one can get). I would not be surprised to see some late season shear which brings a sharp end to the season. I'm not sure if that will dampen numbers or not.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

- - Finally...the forecast seems to be for a negative NAO throughout the hurricane season. A negative NAO promotes a weaker-than-normal high across the central Atlantic, reducing the trade winds across the eastern Atlantic. Not only does this allow for systems to consolidate better by preventing speed shear (see 2012: eastern Atlantic - Isaac, eastern Caribbean - Ernesto), but it also pulls less SAL off Africa.

That could be the biggest factor right there for the US. A less robust High could also signal early poleward storms that recurve prior to getting close to the US coastline.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

- - Finally...the forecast seems to be for a negative NAO throughout the hurricane season. A negative NAO promotes a weaker-than-normal high across the central Atlantic, reducing the trade winds across the eastern Atlantic. Not only does this allow for systems to consolidate better by preventing speed shear (see 2012: eastern Atlantic - Isaac, eastern Caribbean - Ernesto), but it also pulls less SAL off Africa.

That could be the biggest factor right there for the US. A less robust High could also signal early poleward storms that recurve prior to getting close to the US coastline.

A lot of people seem to have that misconception. I think when they hear "weaker-than-normal" they automatically start thinking of "non-existent" which just isn't the case. The high is weaker, yes, but definitely still strong enough to direct a hurricane into the USA coastline. In fact, many of our greatest hurricane hits--Ivan, just to name one--was steered into the Gulf under the influence of a negative NAO.

[SFLcane]

- - Finally...the forecast seems to be for a negative NAO throughout the hurricane season. A negative NAO promotes a weaker-than-normal high across the central Atlantic, reducing the trade winds across the eastern Atlantic. Not only does this allow for systems to consolidate better by preventing speed shear (see 2012: eastern Atlantic - Isaac, eastern Caribbean - Ernesto), but it also pulls less SAL off Africa.

That could be the biggest factor right there for the US. A less robust High could also signal early poleward storms that recurve prior to getting close to the US coastline.

Other then a few getting through its been that way for about the last 3-4 seasons. Active or not if what seems like a permanent feature now a days (TROF) is draped across the southeast united states then its a good bet most will recurve.

Its all luck really. Timing

[cycloneye]

- - Finally...the forecast seems to be for a negative NAO throughout the hurricane season. A negative NAO promotes a weaker-than-normal high across the central Atlantic, reducing the trade winds across the eastern Atlantic. Not only does this allow for systems to consolidate better by preventing speed shear (see 2012: eastern Atlantic - Isaac, eastern Caribbean - Ernesto), but it also pulls less SAL off Africa.

That could be the biggest factor right there for the US. A less robust High could also signal early poleward storms that recurve prior to getting close to the US coastline.

Other then a few getting through its been that way for about the last 3-4 seasons. Active or not if what seems like a permanent feature now a days (TROF) is draped across the southeast united states then its a good bet most will recurve.

Its all luck really. Timing

And that is what matters the most.

[Hurricaneman]

The positives that are a possible go for the 2013

A moist shael region which would make for great tropical waves to track and less SAL to deal with
ENSO being in a neutral phase tends to make for quality storms most of the time
the QBO looks like it could be favorable for the MDR this year

the main negative would be the instability which is way below normal and has been below normal the last few years drying up developing systems last year until they hit the westen Caribbean and the only real time there was any real instability last year Sandy caused alot of problems

So I will make very makeshift numbers right now of 18-21\3-10\1-5 depending on what the instability does

[cycloneye]

We are only a few days away from the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season numbers poll to open. (April 1rst at 4:00 PM EDT) So is time to start thinking of how busy the season may be in terms of numbers and ACE.As it has occured in past year polls,if anyone wants to include the ACE numbers you can add that to your numbers at the poll. If you wonder why this year the poll starts in the 4 PM hour instead of more early in the day is because I have two medical appointments,one for me and the other for my father. Dont worry as I am fine as is only a general checkup.

[blp]

Hello, I wish everyone a safe year. Below is the link to a blogger that I enjoy reading his forecasts every once in a while. Seems to share a lot of useful information. He is not a pro but brings up some good points. Enjoy!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32/show.html

[weatherwindow]

Hello, I wish everyone a safe year. Below is the link to a blogger that I enjoy reading his forecasts every once in a while. Seems to share a lot of useful information. He is not a pro but brings up some good points. Enjoy

An in depth presentation....very comprehensive and well reasoned....bookmarked that one for sure...thanks for the find

[cycloneye]

I added him to the expert forecasts list thread as he has done plenty of in depth analysis of the tropics for the past few years.

[cycloneye]

Is almost here folks!

[chaser1]

Is almost here folks!

Thought I heard the tail end of a cable news brief where there was some reference to "someone's" alarming increased risk of Carolina's coastline landfalls. Did not hear who was credited with the prediction, but was wondering if anyone else happened to hear anything about such a prediction? (I cannot be sure, but think the station playing in the backround was either CNN or Fox news)

[CrazyC83]

When does the poll open?