Weak Surface Low in Western GOM - Yellow-20% (Is 94L)

[tailgater]

From this mornings TWD
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF N OF 21N W OF 88W EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 03/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE
GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W AND CONTINUES TO 24N94W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-26N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER
NE MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS
THE W TIP OF CUBA THEN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 25N83W ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 88W TO
OVER FLORIDA. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N88W TO
INLAND OVER THE W PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF LINE FROM 25N88W
TO S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SURFACE TROUGH OVER CUBA WILL MOVE W ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE FAR SW GULF
LATE TODAY THEN DRIFT W TOWARD THE COAST NEAR VERACRUZ THROUGH
FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE N GULF WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH LATE FRI IN PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY FORM IN
THE NW GULF BY LATE SAT AND DRIFT NW THROUGH SUN.

[ronjon]

I see a weak rotation over land on the southwest side of the Yuc. I think this might be what the NAVGEM model might be picking up on. The mass of convection just north of the Yuc is what the CMC has been keying on developing the last several runs. Just have to see if anything forms out of this soup over the next few days in the GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[ROCK]

at 120hr the NAVGEM hit Galveston with a 1000MB TS.....been pretty consistant the last 3 runs..just sayin

it originates just where I have pegged a MLC at 20N 92W...might poof tonight though....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Rock, just wondering how much faith you have in NAVGEM at 120hr? Thanks in advance.

the NAVGEM? One of the worst / last models I would believe. I was just throwing out there because from time to time I look at it....Now if the GFS and CMC are keying on a feature then I would believe it more....

[ROCK]

I see a weak rotation over land on the southwest side of the Yuc. I think this might be what the NAVGEM model might be picking up on. The mass of convection just north of the Yuc is what the CMC has been keying on developing the last several runs. Just have to see if anything forms out of this soup over the next few days in the GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

I believe you are right...there was a MLC there last night....sort of poofed but today you can still see it with convection starting to pop up around it....

[Steve H.]

Convection seems to be building nicely in the Central GOM. Could have something going there in the next couple of days as the trough retrogrades to the WNW. Not to change subject, but the ULL east of the Bahamas is beginning to build convection and maybe something to watch during the next few days as well. That trough split may become interesting.

[Pearl River]

Here ya go ROCK. This may have been published before and if it was, I apologize. NAVGEM replaces the NOGAPS. From wiki:

The NAVGEM became operational in February 2013, replacing the NOGAPS. It uses the same forecast range as the NOGAPS did (three-hour intervals out 180 hours) but also uses a refurbished dynamic core and improvements to the physics simulations compared to its predecessor

Also, here's a link to a story about NAVGEM: http://gcn.com/Articles/2013/06/27/Navy-NAVGEM-global-weather-forecasting.aspx

MODS, if this is not an appropriate place, feel free to move it and I apologize.

[ROCK]

Here ya go ROCK. This may have been published before and if it was, I apologize. NAVGEM replaces the NOGAPS. From wiki:

The NAVGEM became operational in February 2013, replacing the NOGAPS. It uses the same forecast range as the NOGAPS did (three-hour intervals out 180 hours) but also uses a refurbished dynamic core and improvements to the physics simulations compared to its predecessor

Also, here's a link to a story about NAVGEM: http://gcn.com/Articles/2013/06/27/Navy-NAVGEM-global-weather-forecasting.aspx

MODS, if this is not an appropriate place, feel free to move it and I apologize.

I didnt know it was upgraded....hmmmm, I will have to watch more closely going forward.

[Portastorm]

Here ya go ROCK. This may have been published before and if it was, I apologize. NAVGEM replaces the NOGAPS. From wiki:

The NAVGEM became operational in February 2013, replacing the NOGAPS. It uses the same forecast range as the NOGAPS did (three-hour intervals out 180 hours) but also uses a refurbished dynamic core and improvements to the physics simulations compared to its predecessor

Also, here's a link to a story about NAVGEM: http://gcn.com/Articles/2013/06/27/Navy-NAVGEM-global-weather-forecasting.aspx

MODS, if this is not an appropriate place, feel free to move it and I apologize.

Nope. You're good. It is helpful information and being shared in the context of the discussion about a possible system. Thanks for the links, Pearl River!

[Tireman4]

This could be an interesting weekend and upcoming week. Hummmm

[tailgater]

I see a weak rotation over land on the southwest side of the Yuc. I think this might be what the NAVGEM model might be picking up on. The mass of convection just north of the Yuc is what the CMC has been keying on developing the last several runs. Just have to see if anything forms out of this soup over the next few days in the GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Looking at the Hi res loop from GHCC. i see a more defined rotation at the extreme southern BOC, just north of Coatzacoalcos, Mx. CMC is saying by tonite or early tomorrow something is supposed to organize out of that soup but I sure can't see it happening.

[vbhoutex]

I see a weak rotation over land on the southwest side of the Yuc. I think this might be what the NAVGEM model might be picking up on. The mass of convection just north of the Yuc is what the CMC has been keying on developing the last several runs. Just have to see if anything forms out of this soup over the next few days in the GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Looking at the Hi res loop from GHCC. i see a more defined rotation at the extreme southern BOC, just north of Coatzacoalcos, Mx. CMC is saying by tonite or early tomorrow something is supposed to organize out of that soup but I sure can't see it happening.

Very interesting in the SE BOC to say the least. May be mid level spin we are seeing, but kind of tough to determine(at least for me)at this time. Considering my location I am watching closely. We need the rain badly in SE TX/,most of TX, but nothing destructive please!!

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS showing some Tropical Storm force winds approaching the FL Panhandle tomorrow.

[Ntxw]

Not kidding about broad. At this time looks messy.

[floridasun78]

shear too high in area it look like spin in boc but shear killing it

[BigB0882]

I see the possible circulation and the convection in the extreme SE BOC but yes, shear is too much. It will have to hang in there and wait for that trough to pull back. At least we have something to watch.

[Tireman4]

I am thinking, and I know nothing, of waiting until this weekend for anything to do anything..whatever it is ..LOL

[tailgater]

If this continues for long we'll gonna probably start developing a low, where it actually forms? if it forms, but i think those chances are increasing.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[floridasun78]

nhc see what we see high shear not dropping

[MississippiWx]

If you read the 2pm discussion carefully, you'll see that they are referring to the system that could develop in the BOC/SW Gulf in a couple of days. They say this trough will continue to most west into the Western Gulf of Mexico. What about the low that models are picking up on and moving into the Central Gulf Coast? They don't seem to be too concerned with that one. If anything were to develop, it should remain weak, but that is the more immediate threat for development.