Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean/Yucatan (Is Invest 95L)

[Riptide]

The SAL imagery shows the convection more north than the outdated Eastern Atlantic sat floater from 06:00 UTC.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: I am confused I thought it already splashed down...I didnt think we were talking about the feature at 15N?

to be honest I see nothing up around 15N...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html

Not sure what you're looking at, but Pouch #20 is over Africa near 15N:

[cycloneye]

No development in five days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[ROCK]

The SAL imagery shows the convection more north than the outdated Eastern Atlantic sat floater from 06:00 UTC.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitEW.jpg

have my doubts it will really come off that far north....but if it does it will plow right into that heavy SAL...game over before it has a chance.

[cycloneye]

Pouch has reached the water so let's see how it does with a new environment ahead.But the folks who study and analize the pouches are not bullish with this one.

ECMWF: Tracks smoothly to the WNW. Gradually weakens and decays after 96 hours. Pouch moisture shows a slight decrease.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, lasting to 108 hours, but still dissipating.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P20L.html

[cycloneye]

Tropical Wave has been introduced in the 12z surface analysis.

[cycloneye]

2 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N19W TO 21N18W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND
COINCIDES WITH A MID-LEVEL 700 MB TROUGH AXIS ALONG 19W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES FROM 08N-17N
BETWEEN 13W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 16W-23W.

[Gustywind]

2 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N19W TO 21N18W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND
COINCIDES WITH A MID-LEVEL 700 MB TROUGH AXIS ALONG 19W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES FROM 08N-17N
BETWEEN 13W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 16W-23W.

Interresting to note that surronding the twave there is no dry air or SAL ...

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N18W TO 13N20W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND COINCIDES WITH
A MID-LEVEL 700 MB TROUGH AXIS ALONG 19W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 13W-
20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 14W-
18W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

[cycloneye]

Well,at least it has some vorticity. Let's see if it can hold it down the road.

[cycloneye]

Not bad OSCAT. Pass was made at 8:50 PM EDT.

[JonathanBelles]

That scan surprised me. That appears to be just below TD requirements. It appears to be closed with light winds, but it needs convection on the northern side. Convection seems on the light side all around.

[TheStormExpert]

At this point I would assume SAL/Dry Air will be an issue just like with Chantal, Dorian, and previous disturbances.



Mid-Level Dry Air:

[gatorcane]

Here is an IR image taken roughly 3 hours ago. There are some reds showing up. I circled the area of interest:

[HurricaneDREW92]

Would be very surprised if NHC doesn't highlight this feature at 2am TWO

[abajan]

Would be very surprised if NHC doesn't highlight this feature at 2am TWO

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

SURPRISE!

[cycloneye]

8 AM Discussion.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N23W 16N243W 11N24W...
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ALONG 10N36W 15N35W 22N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W.

[cycloneye]

The latest update by the pouch group.

P20L
13N, 22W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Large, distinct pouch. Tracks to the WNW, becoming elongated SW-NE, with the pouch center remaining in the NE portion for at least the first few days. As P20L weakens, the 96-108 hour positions could be the southwestern portion of the pouch during its last gasps; note the track toward the southwest.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, at least for the first 60 hours, with a large pouch and then the elongation toward the southwest. However, rather the pouch center remains in the northeastern portion. After practically dissipating on the eastern side of the accompanying dry low to the west at 84 hours, a tiny, very weak pouch is depicted again that persists until at least 120 hours.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P20L.html

[cycloneye]

A low pressure has been added to Tropical Wave/Pouch20L at 12z Surface Analysis.

[cycloneye]

2 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N24W TO 20N23W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL SURFACE CIRCULATION
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N24W.
IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL 700 MB TROUGH AXIS ALSO EXTENDS FROM
12N24W NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE WAVE AXIS TO 20N23W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES FROM 08N-22N
BETWEEN 15W-26W. CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN
21W-28W.