Convection off SW FL

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jeff
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#21 Postby jeff » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:12 pm

outflow boundary racing out to the north clearly seen on visible images. Would expect any development to be slow as it moves W to WNW.
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#22 Postby nautical wheeler » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:08 pm

What is that spin coming off the tip of Florida? Is that just an upper level spin? It appears to be hindering the convection.

Boy the atmosphere sure is moist over the GOM and Caribbean. Looks primed for some kind of spin up.
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#23 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:20 pm

jeff wrote:outflow boundary racing out to the north clearly seen on visible images. Would expect any development to be slow as it moves W to WNW.

Jeff, any chance it may pop up in the next 2 TWOs?
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#24 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:25 pm

I'll admit, never remember so much convection in the Gulf in mid August over such an extended period of time with no TC formation.
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#25 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:30 pm

Hmmm...after looking at some high resolution loops there could be at least an MLC or 850mb Vort circulation near 24.5N 85.5W under that continuous convective cloud moving just south of due west. Using the NASA site and speeding up the loop.
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#26 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:34 pm

No mention:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192328
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#27 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 20, 2013 6:51 am

You can see that circulation this morning on RGB....23.5N 87.5W
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#28 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 20, 2013 7:31 am

There's nothing there this morning. No development from this area.
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#29 Postby otowntiger » Tue Aug 20, 2013 7:52 am

wxman57 wrote:There's nothing there this morning. No development from this area.
Yeehaw!!! :wink: 8-)
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#30 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 20, 2013 8:27 am

Appears to be something just north of Yucatan but no convection. If it stays there a few days maybe, something could form.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 20, 2013 8:28 am

like fish out of water ... gasping for air!
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#32 Postby nautical wheeler » Tue Aug 20, 2013 9:47 am

Is there just no convergence in the gulf right now? Is the atmosphere just so stable over the GOM and Caribbean that convection can't sustain itself? I see these little flare ups that are like flash in the pans and any developments that do form can't seem to sustain deep convection at all. Versus the EPAC where hot towers seem to be the rule rather than the exception.
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