Disturbed weather in Yucatan,moves to SW GOM (Is Invest 95L)

[ROCK]

we will see but I am thinking if it develops there the EC trof will send it up and out before FL. Would be a close call...doesn't look strong so might be a good thing

[gatorcane]

Low resolution euro inline with the GFS

What the Euro is showing is the NW Caribbean system which we have a thread for...we can use that thread for this discussion

[gatorcane]

Remarkable agreement by the GFS and ECMWF right now on this potential system on strength and track, considering we are still medium to long-range.

Right now looks like a potential large and broad system but not being shown as a strong system (yet) by the models.

[LaBreeze]

The 12z GEM shows something impacting the mod Texas coast at 126hr...could be what's in the Carib now as source region.

Even the NAVGEM is showing a big sucker in the GOM at 168hr

Wouldn't this be what could form in the NW Caribbean? If it did form, wouldn't it be pushed off to southern Florida and the Bahamas? Would the ridge still be in place over the northern gulf states? Just wondering and asking...

[hurricaneCW]

The NAO and AO are forecast to fall rather sharply negative in the coming days potentially resulting in a blocking pattern, which might coincide with the potential storm as it moves past Florida and into the Bahamas.

The euro is very interesting and can be excellent at sniffing out large/strong systems.

[TheStormExpert]

Did y'all see what Larry crosgrove said on Facebook?

So what did he say?

[cycloneye]

Note= Moved the Euro posts from the Global Model Runs thread to this one.

[blp]

Note= Moved the Euro posts from the Global Model Runs thread to this one.

Thanks did not realize the other thread.

[ROCK]

FYI...the EURO has been horrible with cyclone genesis this year as has the GFS...though I don't discount them once a system is formed. That said, looking at the GEM and NAVGEM the source region for their current solution is this energy in the NW Carib...which as of now looks to be tracking into the Yucatan.

[gatorcane]

Latest saved IR loop. We can see the disturbed area in the NW Caribbean but nothing organized right now. The models are suggesting some development starting next weekend so the organization process will be slow:

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

The best vort is down into Belize area...that ULL to the NW is helping this convection. 50knts wind shear.....lol

[gatorcane]

FYI...the EURO has been horrible with cyclone genesis this year as has the GFS...though I don't discount them once a system is formed. That said, looking at the GEM and NAVGEM the source region for their current solution is this energy in the NW Carib...which as of now looks to be tracking into the Yucatan.

The NAVGEM is the only model I see right now thinking that some energy from Ingrid will loop back into the BOC and redevelop. The ECMWF, GFS, and CMC are latching onto something forming in the NW Caribbean with the CMC much quicker on development and the GFS and ECMWF delaying any development until next weekend at the earliest. The fact the ECMWF is showing some development now to me has increased chances of development in the NW Caribbean.

[blp]

Here is the high resolution run of the Euro. I think this develops from a combination of lefover Ingrid and area in NW Carrib.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Been kind of a pain to follow these threads today. So what its looking like right now is the gfs and euro developing something next weekend and moves it ne/ene across southern gulf south of Florida into Atlantic, while the others show development quicker and moves more nw towards upper tx coast. Sums it up pretty nice?

[ROCK]

yes...

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has the low developing in the NW Caribbean next weekend near the Yucatan then crossing Southern Florida this run around the 180-190 hour timeframe..heading NE. This looks like a very October-esque track:

168 hours:


189 hours:


216 hours:

[floridasun78]

that not good Miami dolphin home next Sunday if forecast become ture i see we got area nw carribbean

[Extratropical94]

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Hurricaneman]

If this can keep its anticyclone as modeled after day 7 and the trough doesn't dig as much as modeled then this could be quite interesting for the Florida peninsula. We should have a clear idea in a few days if this will be a rainmaker, miss through the Florida straits or hits Florida as a hurricane so as they say stay tuned

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

The NHC is saying it is supposed to be going into the SW GoM? Is this area that the models are showing next weekend going to be coming out of something different?

I think this current area mentioned by the NHC is for something different.