2014 hurricane season forecasts

[tolakram]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think 8/4/2 seems reasonable, +2 for a couple of weak satellite storms, putting my best guess at 10/4/2. I do believe the coast is slightly more vulnerable in these types of years, regardless of any continuing patterns. It's all (bad) luck and timing.

[ninel conde]

im going 5/2/0 with hurricane and major nums the important ones. developing el nino, high pressures in the deep tropics, cold atlantic and there will be alot of sinking dry air in the deep tropics caused by the cold water and high pressures. of course, changes possible until late may.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think it's too early for numbers. An El Niño is still *not* guaranteed, and even if we do end up with one, we have no way at this point to know if it will be a traditional El Niño or a Modoki El Niño. If I had to guess, considering that getting a traditional El Niño would take a total reconstruction of the thermocline, I'd say a Modoki El Niño was more likely. Those are associated with anything but minimal Atlantic hurricane activity.

Time will tell. As it's unwise to be overly optimistic about something, maybe people shouldn't be so pessimistic about the hurricane season. Anomalies can and do occur.

[CaliforniaResident]

If this extremely strong El Nino materializes, I am going to predict one hurricane making landfall in the U.S. sometime in early fall and it will be where you'd LEAST expect it.

[ninel conde]

If this extremely strong El Nino materializes, I am going to predict one hurricane making landfall in the U.S. sometime in early fall and it will be where you'd LEAST expect it.

california? would need a strong el nino for that.

[Spin]

Wouldn’t a hurricane be less expected in Washington or Oregon?

[TheStormExpert]

As of right now my numbers for the 2014 season would probably be close to 12/4/2, something tells me this season may be just as quiet possibly quieter than last season. As for predicting landfalls that is just almost impossible to do especially this early on. And I wouldn't be surprised to see no hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. this year.

[SouthFloridian92]

I'm going with 10/4/1.

[Ntxw]

I don't feel comfortable giving a count guess yet. But my early guess for total seasonal ACE is between 50-75

[CaliforniaResident]

If this extremely strong El Nino materializes, I am going to predict one hurricane making landfall in the U.S. sometime in early fall and it will be where you'd LEAST expect it.

california? would need a strong el nino for that.

Wouldn’t a hurricane be less expected in Washington or Oregon?

Even though they may not be tropical in nature, the Pacific NW does get heavy rain and wind storms (sometimes wind gusts up to hurricane force) in fall and winter on occasion.

Los Angeles, on the other hand only got THREE INCHES OF RAIN IN ALL OF 2013. IN other words, they got LESS rain in an ENTIRE year than that falls from a typical Gulf Coast summer afternoon thunderstorm in a few hours. Their news also goes into STORMWATCH mode with constant breaking news if its even drizzling. I think a hurricane making landfall in Southern California would be a much bigger shock on California than it would be if it made landfall on the coast of OR or WA.

Think it's impossible?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane

If it happened once, it could happen again.

As for the Atlantic season, I predict 11/5/1 with no landfalls in the U.S. but one landfall in the Caribbean.

D

[cycloneye]

Wouldn’t a hurricane be less expected in Washington or Oregon?

There was one that passed the 40N latitude. (Guillermo in 1997)

[KatDaddy]

2014 Hurricane Season countdown



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SouthFloridian92]

Wouldn’t a hurricane be less expected in Washington or Oregon?

There was one that passed the 40N latitude. (Guillermo in 1997)

http://www.odec.ca/projects/2005/pete5o ... aneMap.bmp

Why is it that so many Atlantic storms make it so far north, but the same isn't true for the Pacific? Is the Pacific Ocean cooler?

[Ntxw]

Why is it that so many Atlantic storms make it so far north, but the same isn't true for the Pacific? Is the Pacific Ocean cooler?

Ocean currents. The Gulf stream brings warm water up the western North Atlantic while the coast of the West US cooler water off the North Pacific comes down. The western Pacific sees the same phenomenon as the Atlanic as we see Typhoons threaten Japan.

[CaliforniaResident]

Wouldn’t a hurricane be less expected in Washington or Oregon?

There was one that passed the 40N latitude. (Guillermo in 1997)

Why is it that so many Atlantic storms make it so far north, but the same isn't true for the Pacific? Is the Pacific Ocean cooler?

Pacific ocean along the coast of California is always between 55-65 degrees year round. No seasons. El Nino can warm the Southern California waters up to 75 degrees in later summer and early fall but the beaches of Northern California never warm above 65. Try visiting San Francisco in July! No joke that you need a jacket because it's foggy and windy and in the 50s all day. Zero seasonal variation in temperatures there.

[Ntxw]

While I don't know if winter correlates well into summer but the patterns of late since last year has been very reminiscent of 1993-1994. The AMO had a negative reading in January and the SST's still resembles a -AMO to date (negative is cooler waters in the MDR, south of Greenland horseshoe through the eastern basin and warmer waters off NA, +AMO is opposite). With the Pacific warm pool in the northeast it is eerie similar to 1993-1994.

1993 was also a neutral ENSO year much like 2013 was with freakishly low ACE very similar to each other. Will 2014 follow 1994 and turn on El Nino? Just food for thought.

[beoumont]

Pacific ocean along the coast of California is always between 55-65 degrees year round. No seasons. El Nino can warm the Southern California waters up to 75 degrees in later summer and early fall but the beaches of Northern California never warm above 65. Try visiting San Francisco in July! No joke that you need a jacket because it's foggy and windy and in the 50s all day. Zero seasonal variation in temperatures there.

Although many a July day in Frisco is as described above, that is not the way it is all the time. Note in the graph below for Frisco: almost every date in July has a record high near 90 degrees (82-98), and the average high on any day is 72 degrees. Now, it is common that at around 4 pm, the fog bank will move in and bring the temps down back into the 50s quickly, when it has been 70 for several hours before that.

Yes, the seasonal variation in most marine climates is much less than in areas with continental climates.

[CrazyC83]

An Atlantic hurricane at 45N is more common than an EPAC hurricane at 30N.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Most models are showing a traditional Nino and shows higher pressures over the Atlantic. This is one of the few times I followed the Atlantic and I'm still quite unfamiliar....


I'd go with 9/3/1. No storm could form outside the season. At least one hurricane could make landfall ANYWHERE in the Western North Atlantic which means somewhere in the South US, Mexico and a few parts of the Caribbean.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

An Atlantic hurricane at 45N is more common than an EPAC hurricane at 30N.

What I have just noticed about EPAC storms is that they have a more limited area of latitude in formation and in organizing. Atlantic storms tend to form in a wider area, but they usually form at a higher latitude. WPAC storms can form anywhere within 2N and 50N [excluding record storms] and have the widest area of possible formation as the warmest waters are in this BASIN.