Interesting Feature Off the East Coast of Florida

[NDG]

Saved radar loop:

[wxman57]

There's a buoy right in the middle of the squalls reporting a pressure of 1021.6mb and rising. Surface obs do not indicate any rotation at all. It's clearly a mid-level feature. Something to watch if convection persists, though.

[NDG]

This morning I see a little better reflection of the vorticity at the surface, but surface pressures remain very high and have not fallen from 24 hrs ago.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, wxman57, I made a mention yesterday as to the high surface pressures in the area. But, definitely, there is a decent concentrated area of convection just off the Cape. As you mentioned, if the convection can sustain itself and fester near the Gulf Stream, there is a slim chance that a surface reflection could be achieved, albeit it would likely be a weak one should that occur.

[NDG]

Local Mesoscale Forecast Model (WRF) from Melbourne:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/wrf/arw9_hires_sfc_wnd.php

[Dean4Storms]

There is also some weak mid-level turning with that area over the eastern Gulf.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

[Weatherboy1]

Sure looks more interesting today than it did yesterday. We've seen a lot of swirls turn into low pressure areas and low-end TD/TS systems this time of year ... in this general area ... over the past several seasons. So maybe this will get its act together too!

[CrazyC83]

Convectively it looks good, but agreed there doesn't appear to be a surface low.

[northjaxpro]

NHC finally gives this a yellow circle, but virtually nil chance at developing anytime soon:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough located about 75 miles east of the east-central
coast of Florida is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Surface pressures are relatively high in the region
and significant development of this system is not expected as it
drifts slowly northward during the next day or so. After that time,
conditions will remain unfavorable for development as the
disturbance accelerates northeastward ahead of an upper-level
trough.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$

[gatorcane]

Saved images for surface pressure and low-level windflow. Surface pressure is relatively high at 1020MB. Windflow suggests the feature is at the low-levels with westerly wind vectors off the coast of the Melbourne area

[wxman57]

Weak LLC is appearing on offshore obs. Central pressure around 1019mb. Disturbance should track slowly northward for 36-48hrs then run into an approaching upper-level trof and its associated strong wind shear. That should tear it apart and shoot its remnants out to sea to the NE.

[tolakram]

Up to 10%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

Corrected formation chance through 5 days to 10 percent

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak low pressure area located about 75 miles east of the
east-central coast of Florida is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not
expected while it drifts slowly northward during the next day or
so. After that time, conditions should remain unfavorable for
development while the disturbance accelerates northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 10 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[tolakram]

Live sat loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[CFLHurricane]

Well I guess this is better than the nothing burger we've gotten so far.

C'mon hurricane season- heat up already!

[tolakram]

Looks a little more tropical this morning, IMO.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[CrazyC83]

For 2014, it doesn't look too bad.

[tolakram]

Naked swirl.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, dry air and increasing wind shear ahead of an approaching upper trough sealed this system's fate from the very beginning. I am amazed though that this feature did manage to acquire a surface reflection, albeit a very weak one.

Also, nice satellite view of the seabreeze front, showing nicely making it just inland from Jax south down to about the Cape.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My local coverage on the area off the coast of Florida. http://goo.gl/UOdG4b

It is dissipating... However, it is bring some heavy rain to Central Florida... What do all of you think?


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