Tropical Wave between CV islands and Lesser Antilles

[gatorcane]

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N43W TO 13N40W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 38W-46W.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited and disorganized
shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Steve820]

This won't become much I think, I'm more focused on the nearby AOI that seems to be posing a long-term threat to the Caribbean and eventually the US.

[M_0331]

The 8pm TWO has the system nearest west Indies at 50% in 5 day forecast unless I read the TWO wrong. I get them from Illinois.edu...

[cycloneye]

The 8pm TWO has the system nearest west Indies at 50% in 5 day forecast unless I read the TWO wrong. I get them from Illinois.edu...

The area you are eluding is invest 96L and not this one.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 24N39W TO 12N39W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. NORTH OF 14N THE WAVE
IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION IN THAT PORTION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

[TheStormExpert]

Do any of the models develop this?

[Hurricaneman]

The 8pm TWO has the system nearest west Indies at 50% in 5 day forecast unless I read the TWO wrong. I get them from Illinois.edu...

The area you are eluding is invest 96L and not this one.

I watch the tropical tidbits video and that is what I believe will happen, this gets absorbed into 96L

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[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph. After that time, development of
this system is not anticipated as it begins to interact with the
disturbance located to its west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like this will eventually merge with 96L.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N45W TO 23N51W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

[TheStormExpert]

No longer mentioned in the 2pm TWO.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N50W 19N49W 14N48W
10N48W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 49W AND
50W. OTHER NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS CLOSER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N53W.

[Hurricaneman]

This I believe is now part of 96L

[Gustywind]

This I believe is now part of 96L

That's right!

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014


A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N53W TO 13N54W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAXIMA S OF
20N.

[ninel conde]

JB has focused on something else:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 1h

Video on http://weatherbell.com and shown to clients : keep eye on what is unclassified now near 10 n,40w