Tropical Wave East of 90L emerging West Africa (is 91L)

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 1:31 pm

It would be good that this develops into the only major of the season to track it in the middle of the ocean without affecting anyone. I am dreaming right?

supercane4867 · #22 Postby **supercane4867** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 1:35 pm

Certainly does have the appearance of something that's going to develop

#23 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:01 pm

even the Canadian model does NOT develop this

Siker · #24 Postby **Siker** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:11 pm

Yet the Euro and GFS do? What are we supposed to make of this?

TheStormExpert · #25 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:16 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Certainly does have the appearance of something that's going to develop

http://i.imgur.com/dW3zhzs.jpg

So did 90L at one point and look at it now. :lol:

#26 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:44 pm

12Z ECMWF, 120 hours still bullish:

#27 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 3:09 pm

12Z UKMET, bullish and here is how the run ends at 120 hours:

#28 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 3:16 pm

EC turns it due west along 21N with decent ridging to the north

That said, I do not buy that this will develop

Gustywind · #29 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 3:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:It would be good that this develops into the only major of the season to track it in the middle of the ocean without affecting anyone. I am dreaming right?

remember the poof test could be very deceving but you can dream at least for now

Gustywind · #30 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 3:21 pm

Cycloneye, do you think that we could have an Invest from this twave already Monday? What are your idea on that?

#31 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 3:29 pm

Alyono wrote:EC turns it due west along 21N with decent ridging to the north

That said, I do not buy that this will develop

Yep, saw that and interesting indeed. The 00Z ECMWF turned it west similarly so it's not just the last run only. Yet the GFS blows it up and recurves it in the Central Atlantic.

My bets are with the ECMWF.

#32 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 4:46 pm

18Z GFS has a named system out of this as early as 48 hours from now...just south of the Cape Verde islands.

By 72 hours, it shows a hurricane.

Getting close to major hurricane status just 4 days from now: :eek:

CYCLONE MIKE · #33 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:01 pm

Meh just a few days ago models, especially the gfs were showing at this current time there would be a storm in the gulf. And of course there is nothing out there worth mentioning.

#34 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:04 pm

I call BS on a strong hurricane in less than 96 hours in the east Atlantic

Hammy · #35 Postby **Hammy** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:10 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Meh just a few days ago models, especially the gfs were showing at this current time there would be a storm in the gulf. And of course there is nothing out there worth mentioning.

To be fair, there is actually some sort of physical low pressure system this time, as opposed to one that was expected to form later. I'm not buying the strong hurricane forecast either though.

#36 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:21 pm

18Z GFS simulated IR, 108 hours: :eek:

TheStormExpert · #37 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:30 pm

GFS has cried wolf way too many times this season. :lol:

TheStormExpert · #38 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:31 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Alyono wrote:EC turns it due west along 21N with decent ridging to the north

That said, I do not buy that this will develop

Yep, saw that and interesting indeed. The 00Z ECMWF turned it west similarly so it's not just the last run only. Yet the GFS blows it up and recurves it in the Central Atlantic.

My bets are with the ECMWF.

Could you show how the ECMWF run ends?

#39 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:42 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Could you show how the ECMWF run ends?

Plenty of links to the Euro runs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014090612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/ecmwf.php

Saved

120 hours

240 hours

TheStormExpert · #40 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:48 pm

Thanks! And talk about some strong ridging if that was to verify 240hrs. out. :eek:

Tropical Wave East of 90L emerging West Africa (is 91L)

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