Area of Disturbed Weather Near Panama

[boca]

I wonder if it will go poof in the morning or slide into Central America

[TheStormExpert]

At the very least you'd think the NHC could mention it and give it a 0/0% like they have done with a few areas so far this season. My guess is they have overestimated the percentages of many different areas this season (mostly TW's rolling off Africa) that they are afraid to jump on board to only have a repeat in some way or another.

[chaser1]

I can plainly see the concentration of cloudiness and convection in the SW Caribbean, but nothing is going to immediately come out of all of that given the present upper level shear. By my eye, one might make a case for an upper ridge over S. America appearing to be very slowly building northward but conditions just are not there yet. Besides, if we're even going to hang our hats on the GFS and GEM models for development, there not suggesting that is even going to occur until approx. 182 hours. I'm curious if tonight's GFS 0 Z run will maintain continuity and continue to eventually develop "something" in the Yucatan area.

[Hurricaneman]

One of the things going in favor of this is that there is strong convection at 13N 80W with even greys showing up on IR

[LaBreeze]

I wonder if it will go poof in the morning or slide into Central America

My thoughts exactly -

[fci]

Local Met mentioned that models try to spin up something in SW Carib. In the next week. Added that models have been doing that all season!

[ronjon]

Huge blowup of convection in SW Caribbean overnight - let's see if it persists today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

[NDG]

It does not look that organized, IMO.

[caneman]

I've been watching that to RonJon. NOt so much worried about what the models says. They haven't been very good this year so I will trust my visual, synoptics and history.

[cycloneye]

No mention by NHC at 8 AM TWO. Off-topic=I think the peeps should go and follow a Typhoon that may come close to what Haiyan did in 2013. See it here

[Hurricaneman]

If you go by the model consensus this will probably be an EPAC system

[N2FSU]

Looking juicy this morning:

[tropicwatch]

There still is a lot of shear in that area but what an impressive blowup of showers.

[Alyono]

the best structure is in the EPAC

[caneman]

Is it possible to get one system out of each. 1 in E.Pac and one in Carrib?

[Sanibel]

Now I'm on board. It's hard to keep an entire season down.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS back to developing this and yet again recurves it though it has pushed the development and recurve out further. The trough is back on the GFS run that would recurve this which makes sense

[gatorcane]

Looping the SAT imagery, I am starting to see some cyclonic spin just north of Panama. I also see possible spin on the EPAC side too. Shear seems to have relaxed over the area. Models clearly struggling with this because of the two areas of possible development though the SW Carib area looks more robust at the moment.

Also note the energy over the GOM which is creating a trough that might be enough to pull the SW Carib area northwestward gradually:

[alienstorm]

That is correct and while this may be a long process we are starting to see some turning

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Alyono]

models have basically dropped this. MU has pushed the development time way back while the CMC shows nothing except for a weak low in the EPAC