Possible Development in the BOC (Is Invest 93L)

[tropicwatch]

Same here in NW Florida

[TheStormExpert]

Is this possible area in the BoC what rides up off the East Coast and turns into the forecasted Nor'easter by mid-week?

[SFLcane]

[floridasun78]

what day that for?

[northjaxpro]

The EURO run above is for next Saturday 10/25/2014

[NDG]

Well, I guess King Euro wins again over the GFS, though the GFS did pretty good with Gonzalo's track while the Euro forecasted for a while for it to get left behind by the trough.

[blp]

00z ukmet showing development. This may become a strong TS. I would not be surprised if the Euro comes in a little stronger.

[boca]

Is that the 1007mb low over the Yucatan that is in question

[gatorcane]

Yeah with the UKMET on board, you can't ignore that as it is generally quite good with predicting genesis. 12Z guidance shows a range of solutions from some slow development in the BOC then crossing the Yucatan and ultimately becoming a hurricane in the NW Caribbean to something more subtropical and frontal heading ENE towards the SE GOM / South Florida / Cuba area.

Looking at Trudy this afternoon, which must be the catalyst for the BOC development, looks to have started getting pulled NE slowly towards the BOC. Question is what condition will it be in assuming it can cross the big mountains there?

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zEuro has this moving SE from the BOC to the Western Caribbean it also seems that the GFS does something similar but a little farther north so who knows where this will be after day 5 as in hung up in the Caribbean or moving across Florida

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[jlauderdal]

Same here in NW Florida

this is the time of year i start feeling real guilty about our weather..damn shame it has to be so good

all i can say we are going to get gatorcane his hurricans sometime in the next 5 years..bermuda gets hit twice in a week, cabo hits are rare and we cant get something into central for florida for 10 years..maybe just maybe this is the week but i dont think so

[jlauderdal]

Is this possible area in the BoC what rides up off the East Coast and turns into the forecasted Nor'easter by mid-week?

heading to manahttan next saturday...wouldnt it be something if i have to travel to get something of significance this year

[gatorcane]

Well the ECMWF has changed it's tune some. The 12Z run just in is showing a broad low move from the BOC ENE through the Yucatan and into the NW Caribbean where it stalls out for several days. It looks like a tropical low and not squashed by the front like previous runs. It has backed off on the strength of the front caused by a cutoff low over the NE CONUS.

Still there at 216 hours:

[Hurricaneman]

Well the ECMWF has changed it's tune some. The 12Z run just in is showing a broad low move from the BOC ENE through the Yucatan and into the NW Caribbean where it stalls out for several days. It looks like a tropical low and not squashed by the front like previous runs. Will post graphic shortly.

Still there at 216 hours now...

and with that 500 position it would hit Florida, but as we all know being in the long range its prone to large errors

edit: moves towards the north central GOM at 240, thats comletely different from all of its other model runs

[gatorcane]

240 hours heads in NNW into the GOM and shows what looks like a tropical storm. This is a big change in the ECMWF which has backed off on the strength of the front next week. Of course this is long-range but the previous ECMWF runs never really developed it and had the front strong enough to push the low south.

[NDG]

That looks subtropical if not with some extratropical charecteristics.

[gatorcane]

here is what the ECMWF looks like on the penn state graphic, at 240 hours:



12Z GFS at the same timeframe has the low moving NE from the Caribbean:

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET showing something in the BOC that moves ENE:

[blp]

12z Navgem still develops this attached to the front and has the system heading out. 18z should follow the trend and leave it behind.

[blp]

The 12z CMC leaves it behind and of course ramps it up to hurricane. At least the trend today has been for it to detach from the front and be left behind in the NW Carribean.