Development off SE U.S coast?

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS develops this into a weak low in the GOM and landfalls in the Panhandle so if the Euro holds steady the next few runs then we may need to discount the GFS so cant wait for the Euro as the GFS may be having difficulty handling cyclogenesis due to it being possibly originally frontal as discussed above

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[Hammy]

CMC and Euro have swapped positions. I think all the models can be tossed at this point now until an actual low pressure forms...

[Yellow Evan]

Guess what?

0z ECMWF barely moves this over water AFAIK.

[NDG]

It makes sense that things will develope slower, if at all, than what the Euro showed at yesterday's 12z run, there is just too much of a northerly push, things might have to wait until the heat ridge over TX moves westward.

[NCSTORMMAN]

It makes sense that things will develope slower, if at all, than what the Euro showed at yesterday's 12z run, there is just too much of a northerly push, things might have to wait until the heat ridge over TX moves westward.

Why is the ECMWF developing the low over land? It has some pretty strong winds near Washington, D.C.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10% in 5 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal
boundary early next week between the southeast United States coast
and Bermuda. Environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves east-northeastward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[NCSTORMMAN]

Down to 10% in 5 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal
boundary early next week between the southeast United States coast
and Bermuda. Environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves east-northeastward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

http://i.imgur.com/Ngxsd7y.png

What I would like to know is if that is the same piece of energy some of the models are showing developing?

[gatorcane]

Development still starts on the ECMWF at 72 hours (so timeframe has not pushed), it just shifted things west and now the low is over land over North Florida. So the ECMWF still develops the low. If it can stay out over water, it would probably be as strong as the 12Z run yesterday, which showed it becoming a hurricane with a 964MB pressure accelerating into Nova Scotia. The fact that it is trying to develop it over land shows the upper-level conditions must be very favorable for development.

[TheStormExpert]

Why did the NHC decrease development chances to 10%? I'd put odds of development at 50% for now. I seriously think they are looking at the wrong area and model.

[NDG]

I think the disturbance that the NHC is highlighting is not the same system that the Euro develops, look for a piece of energy close or over FL over the next couple of days.

[TheStormExpert]

The question now is the Euro right or wrong? The NHC makes it look like the Euro is off in it's own world!

[tropicwatch]

Looks like rotation SE of South Carolina.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[NCSTORMMAN]

Looks like rotation SE of South Carolina.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

To my untrained eye it looks like something trying to form there. Very good rotation and could be the reason the storms are firing up in the gulf of mexico as well. Am I correct or being fooled?

[Yellow Evan]

It's the same general low. The yellow circle is where they expect genesis to occur, not necessarily where the low to move.

[cycloneye]

Now is better the area that they highlight in accordance with models.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure extends from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the adjacent
Atlantic waters. Upper-level winds are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it remains nearly stationary during
the next several days. However, locally heavy rainfall can be
expected across portions of the Florida peninsula through the
weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Edited title of thread to reflect the change of highlight zone by NHC.

[northjaxpro]

Now is better the area that they highlight in accordance with models.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure extends from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the adjacent
Atlantic waters. Upper-level winds are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it remains nearly stationary during
the next several days. However, locally heavy rainfall can be
expected across portions of the Florida peninsula through the
weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Stewart

Now, that's more like it. I am surprised they missed this yesterday.

[gatorcane]

Yep that shading looks good.

Notice the forecaster.

[NDG]

I agree with the new highlighted area and the 12z GFS is very close to last night's 0z Euro run, organization will be much closer to the FL Peninsula than earlier thought.

[NDG]

12z Euro so far has the vorticity meandering over and around FL through the next 96 hrs.