GOM looks messy (Is Invest 94L)

#21 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:59 am

Broad closed surface low very noticeable this morning from visible satellite loop and surface reports but it has that subtropical look because of all the shear.

#22 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:04 am

NHC had the Low estimated at 27N 87W earlier at 12Z this morning. It is at 1013 mb currently. This would have been a decently developed system were it not for the shear.Also NDG, the influence of the upper trough does lead into this Low having an hybrid/subtropcal look to it right now.

TheStormExpert · #23 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:37 pm

Mentioned in the 2pm TWO.

A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system is not expected while it moves generally
northward at 10 to 15 mph over the next day or so. However,
locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Florida through
Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

TheStormExpert · #24 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:43 pm

#25 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:43 pm

I was wondering when NHC would finally give this Low a mention in the TWO.
Heavy rain down in Southeast Florida currently and a shield of heavy rain moving into Apalachee Bay and up in the Big Bend region on the eastern and northeastern side of the broad Low.

Sanibel · #26 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 2:21 pm

Got rain from it early this morning. Thundering now.

Sheared and running out of room. NE GOM is teasing us this year.

#27 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 2:32 pm

Interesting broad low, if the shear lessened and it had a day or two longer over water. Boom!

Hammy · #28 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 2:39 pm

Any chance this could spin up into something before moving ashore?

#29 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 2:47 pm

Hammy wrote:Any chance this could spin up into something before moving ashore?

According to the NHC there is a 10% chance. Not sure how much more specific anyone could get.

#30 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 5:12 pm

Hammy wrote:Any chance this could spin up into something before moving ashore?

Not a chance, IMO, shear is relentless over it.

Nimbus · #31 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:07 pm

The tail of the trough looks like it may extend SW to near 25n 90w where the radar echos are showing thunderstorms. Maybe something could work its way to the surface there? The original vortex we spoted last night is getting sheared. Radar echoes are moving north, not sure if there is much left of the LLC.

bohaiboy · #32 Postby **bohaiboy** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:23 pm

OSM on Houston channel says models are predicting a low to form and possibly become tropical in NW GOM around a week from today. I believe it was NBC Ch2 in Houston

#33 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:07 pm

Delete

#34 Postby **Houstonia** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:30 pm

bohaiboy wrote:OSM on Houston channel says models are predicting a low to form and possibly become tropical in NW GOM around a week from today. I believe it was NBC Ch2 in Houston

David Paul at KHOU said the same thing.

Sanibel · #35 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Sep 08, 2015 12:11 am

Something's curling up there on radar.

#36 Postby **Extratropical94** » Tue Sep 08, 2015 1:00 am

A weak area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico about 90 miles west-southwest of Cedar Key, Florida, is
producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are unfavorable due to strong upper-level
winds and dry mid-level air, and significant development of this
system is not expected before it moves over the Florida Panhandle
later today. However, this system could produce locally heavy
rainfall over portions of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia
during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 10 percent

#37 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:02 am

Northeast GOM or Fla. Big Bend is this years "almost hot spot".
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

bahamaswx · #38 Postby **bahamaswx** » Tue Sep 08, 2015 5:14 am

There is a very obvious swirl that'll be moving inland near Tallahassee in the next few hours.

TheStormExpert · #39 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:32 am

8am TWO. Down to 0/0 again.

A weak area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
just to the east of Apalachicola, Florida, is producing disorganized
showers and a few thunderstorms. This system will move inland over
the Florida Panhandle later this morning, and development is not
likely. Locally heavy rainfall should affect portions of northern
Florida and southeastern Georgia during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

#40 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Sep 08, 2015 8:04 am

There is also something to watch out for in the next 7-10 days. I know that is a ways off but the Euro has been consistent with forming something in the far southwest Gulf and moving it NE while strengthening. The sheer in the Gulf better back off it that is to happen but either way it could be hinting at a very wet pattern for some of us along the Gulf in a week and a half or so.

GOM looks messy (Is Invest 94L)

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