Posible GOM development?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS trending stronger....

132 hours below:

[cycloneye]

12z GFS begins at 108 hours the developing proccess.

[gatorcane]

144 hours approaching LA:

[gatorcane]

150 hours:

[jlauderdal]

also surprised they mentioned this. Models are indicating a lower chance of development with the latest runs than they previously were

maybe they have decided to do the opposite of the models

[gatorcane]

Landfall New Orleans, but it weakens some before landfall.

[CourierPR]

There is a big blow up of convection east of Nicaragua. Could that be the seed that gets this going?

There also appears to be a spin down there.

[gatorcane]

It is a close call with New Orleans on this run as it looks to get decapitated by shear just a little offshore before it makes landfall. GFS is stronger this run for sure though.

1002MB just of LA:

[tropicwatch]

We will probably see the models flip flopping several times before a low even forms.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC MUCH stronger....but thank goodness it is the CMC

[ronjon]

Starting to get some consensus on track from the last runs of CMC and GFS. Lets see what Euro brings this afternoon. Noticed on the 12z GFS that the origin of the low pressure is east of Belieze in the western caribbean. It then moves N-NW over the Yuc and emerges in the Southern GOM. So that disturbed weather down there could be the genesis area.

[ROCK]

got a long way to go to be the source area....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[ronjon]

Jeff Master's blog today:

A southerly flow of moisture from the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico towards the northern Gulf of Mexico will develop this weekend, and our top three models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are showing an area of low pressure capable of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression forming near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. An upper-level trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico next week will likely bring high wind shear to the Gulf, limiting the potential for any system in the Gulf to strengthen. The models are currently predicting that this system will get pulled northwards to affect the U.S. coast from Louisiana to Florida by next Wednesday, but forecasts this far into the future are low-confidence. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.

[ROCK]

959MB....lol..the CMC is good at sniffing out TC genesis but intensity and even track wise not that reliable...

[Hurricaneman]

959MB....lol..the CMC is good at sniffing out TC genesis but intensity and even track wise not that reliable...

The area where Im seeing the turning right now is over Central america and looks good as it moves north

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[rickybobby]

Any models have this going to Florida? Thanks

[ronjon]

959MB....lol..the CMC is good at sniffing out TC genesis but intensity and even track wise not that reliable...

Yeah and it always seems to find New Orleans on at least one run as a major!

[ronjon]

CMC develops this in the western caribbean like the latest GFS.

[Hurricaneman]

Any models have this going to Florida? Thanks

Not as of now but as we all know that could change

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

UKMET is sold on this. Not very strong but in line with other models now.