Hurricane Patricia's remains in the Gulf

Weatherwatcher98 · #21 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 2:42 pm

Looks like a Bunch of much needed rain.

Too much shear.

#22 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 2:59 pm

Live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-95&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=gray

#23 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 3:03 pm

Steve wrote:NHC intitially went with nontropical as mid and upper remnants pulled ne and the lower level remnants will become absorbed into the low winding up in Texas. Like I said last night, I think there will be gale force conditions in the nw gulf and coastal areas, so tropical storm conditions should be present regardless of whether there is enough time over water or whether or not nhc classifies as tropical or subtropical. If they are right with the absorption and phase, and if the lower-level circulation gets 18-36 hours over the Gulf, I think we get an STS. That would be my call with 45mph winds with gusts to 60-65 offshore. Let's see what happens.

Disclaimer: This is not an official forecast. Go with the NHC

Edit: floater visible shows a hook blowing up closer to the coast than where the surface maps show a low. its probably the midlevel remnants. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Based upon their products, unless this has an eye, it will NEVER be named. To be honest, I am not sure they will ever name a crossover

Weatherwatcher98 · #24 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 3:46 pm

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 242031
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

Satellite imagery and surface observations from northern Mexico
indicate that Patricia has degenerated to a remnant low pressure
area characterized by no organized convection and a poorly defined
surface circulation. The remnant low is expected to move
northeastward and weaken to a trough during the next several hours,
with the trough being absorbed by a non-tropical area of low
pressure over southern Texas tonight or on Sun

#25 Postby **Steve** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:31 pm

Alyono wrote:
Steve wrote:NHC intitially went with nontropical as mid and upper remnants pulled ne and the lower level remnants will become absorbed into the low winding up in Texas. Like I said last night, I think there will be gale force conditions in the nw gulf and coastal areas, so tropical storm conditions should be present regardless of whether there is enough time over water or whether or not nhc classifies as tropical or subtropical. If they are right with the absorption and phase, and if the lower-level circulation gets 18-36 hours over the Gulf, I think we get an STS. That would be my call with 45mph winds with gusts to 60-65 offshore. Let's see what happens.

Disclaimer: This is not an official forecast. Go with the NHC

Edit: floater visible shows a hook blowing up closer to the coast than where the surface maps show a low. its probably the midlevel remnants. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Based upon their products, unless this has an eye, it will NEVER be named. To be honest, I am not sure they will ever name a crossover

I hear you. I just think its gonna be an sst. 18z Nam high-res radar simulation actually closes off a tight inner circulation at landfall near Vermillion Parish/Abbeville. That's sort of inline with the 00z EC. I haven't looked at the 12 yet.

36 hr nam hires
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... eSize=&ps=

And 42 hours
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... eSize=&ps=

#26 Postby **mpic** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 5:08 pm

I live just north of Galveston and the rain has been light all day until now.

LaBreeze · #27 Postby **LaBreeze** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 5:33 pm

Steve wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Steve wrote:NHC intitially went with nontropical as mid and upper remnants pulled ne and the lower level remnants will become absorbed into the low winding up in Texas. Like I said last night, I think there will be gale force conditions in the nw gulf and coastal areas, so tropical storm conditions should be present regardless of whether there is enough time over water or whether or not nhc classifies as tropical or subtropical. If they are right with the absorption and phase, and if the lower-level circulation gets 18-36 hours over the Gulf, I think we get an STS. That would be my call with 45mph winds with gusts to 60-65 offshore. Let's see what happens.

Disclaimer: This is not an official forecast. Go with the NHC

Edit: floater visible shows a hook blowing up closer to the coast than where the surface maps show a low. its probably the midlevel remnants. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Based upon their products, unless this has an eye, it will NEVER be named. To be honest, I am not sure they will ever name a crossover

I hear you. I just think its gonna be an sst. 18z Nam high-res radar simulation actually closes off a tight inner circulation at landfall near Vermillion Parish/Abbeville. That's sort of inline with the 00z EC. I haven't looked at the 12 yet.

36 hr nam hires
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... eSize=&ps=

And 42 hours
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... eSize=&ps=

I live here in Vermilion Parish - I'll let you know about conditions here.

#28 Postby **Steve** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 5:46 pm

Should be pretty squally. There are a ton of flash flood warnings out in South Texas around Victoria, Corpus Christi and then up by Bay City. 12z ECMWF operational) at 48 hours has a pretty tight low in your area. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=048hr

Here is the Ensembles. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-en ... hour=048hr

Also I'm pretty sure the remnant surface low is catching up to that blowup just south of Brownsville. Might be some juice later on tonight as old surface low gets toward the coast. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

CYCLONE MIKE · #29 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 6:09 pm

If that verifys should get some pretty good squalls as we will be in the right front quadrant. Who would have thought, might be finally getting the much hyped homebrew of the season.

#30 Postby **Steve** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 6:42 pm

Haha. Yeah. I still don't think the season is done, but this is probably the best you or I get to see this season. I'm thinking some people might be surprised in a couple days.

#31 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:21 pm

Check out radar out of Brownsville
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... O&loop=yes

#32 Postby **NDG** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 9:00 pm

By no means the low pressure developing offshore of southern TX is fully tropical in nature.

Ptarmigan · #33 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:02 pm

IR Enhancement 4

The area of thunderstorms has very cold cloud tops.

Here is a Doppler radar image out of Brownsville.

LaBreeze · #34 Postby **LaBreeze** » Sun Oct 25, 2015 12:13 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:If that verifys should get some pretty good squalls as we will be in the right front quadrant. Who would have thought, might be finally getting the much hyped homebrew of the season.

Stay safe Cyclone Mike - looks like we're in for a little rough and tumble. I'm in Vermilion Parish to your west.

CourierPR · #35 Postby **CourierPR** » Sun Oct 25, 2015 12:29 am

To me, the system now looks more frontal but there could be some gales in the area.

#36 Postby **Steve** » Sun Oct 25, 2015 12:38 am

It is but watch the next 24-36 hours. Trust me. Sometimes old mfs can read the tropics. It's not going to be Superbad or anything but if 00z EC follows thru bank an sts or at least sts conditions for the triangle counties, Cameron, Vermilion and Iberia Parishes.

bamajammer4eva · #37 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Sun Oct 25, 2015 4:19 am

May not be a Tropical Cyclone by definition but NAM seems to see a twist in the atmosphere nonetheless. Here is 06z NAM tornado parameters for Tues overnight-low end threat but a scattered possibility still if correct. We shall see if spc agrees as there is currently no risk for Tuesday.

#38 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 25, 2015 6:56 am

This morning the storm has the looks of a more extra tropical system than a subtropical storm but a strong one nonetheless, with many oil platforms reporting gale force wind gusts, this is very common during El Niño years to see these storms take advantage of the very warm gulf waters and aided by a strong subtropical jet stream.

#39 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:36 am

Some of the strongest winds reported from offshore rigs/stations earlier this morning.

Conditions at: KEMK (E BREAKS 165 , TX, US) observed 0635 UTC 25 October 2015
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.67 inches Hg (1004.8 mb)
Winds: from the ESE (120 degrees) at 53 MPH (46 knots; 23.9 m/s)
gusting to 66 MPH (57 knots; 29.6 m/s)
Visibility: 0.25 miles (0.40 km)
Ceiling: 400 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 400 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 700 feet AGL
Weather: FG (fog)

#40 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:40 am

BTW, earlier today buoy 42019 reported a pressure of 996mb, rising now as the low pressure is moving away from it.

10 25 4:50 am S 27.2 33.0 12.8 8 6.7 SE 29.42

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

Hurricane Patricia's remains in the Gulf

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